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Still looks like 10-25cm this morning IMO (for 23rd and 24th event)
1. The IOD matters, but it isn’t the world.
2. ENSO matters, but it isn’t the world.
3. ENSO is way way more than just “Modoki”, “Canonical”, etc....
May I ask what is your opinion on this? This debate has obviously carried on for a long time, so maybe we could see where the discrepancies lie,...
Thinking of it as a box (NINO 4) is really not how you should look at it.
I guess you could call it a vague Modoki if you want. But it’s not as...
Really only for TBR, I’d assume.
There probably won’t be a beast as long as we are in the realms of +AAO.
We are looking at top-ups mainly for now IMO.
15-25cm IMO based off those GFS runs, and EC this morning.
Those vorticity plots that @Jwintermix shows, demonstrate intense snowfalls as those...
Buller FB, looks stunning today:
GEPS and EPS playing ball for something on the 2/3rd of August.
Summit is open!
EPS is angling something around the 2nd.
To me, the models will play around a bit.
But the general week I am looking at here is the 28th...
Snowing at Buller.
And the atmosphere (AAM) is leaning towards cold neutral anyway in the medium term.
SOI is nearly Nino levels. Which isn’t great for us if you...
Must be old modelling.
5cms on Sunday for the resorts.
A dusting maybe tonight for VIC resorts.
Not much there.
Which can be impacted by equatorial waves and the MJO.
It looks very deep and cold on EC, just not far north enough on 23/24th.
The IOD also has a connection to ENSO, which can join the two factors together.
@Gerg removed it from his prediction, because ENSO seems to be...