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Nice upper shear. They don look much better on paper than this.
Yeah its nice looking monsoon gyre on the model with a few vorts spining up out of head of gyre and circling inside the gyre as they do.
Unfortunately there's been no westerlies to steer the low away. Until they kick in the low will just meander about where it is.
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 31, 2019:
Location: 16.6°S 138.5°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
EC suggest's this...
Quick look @ GFS suggests the broad monsoon lpa (eddy) /x savannah will likely keep the substantial moisture flowing for over the area.
On paper the GOC system looks good for a rain event over wide spreed area's.
Big margin for error on the track. Without dynamic wind modeling its not much use to tie down any wind impact area,
not dig just fact....
WTPS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY)...
I know i should only be looking @12hr chunks. But since vortcity is mentioned . That 18z GFS was a interesting L/R
run. As you can can see it...
no real surprise sat data estimations dribbling in suggesting penny. a 40-45kt tropical storm
2019JAN06 001000 2.9 997.2 43.0 2.9 3.1 3.1 NO...
Decent convective blow up going on atm
That dark area is intense...
Agree those plots you posted above K show weak convergence and a horrendous mid-level shear forecast.
EC thinks the mid-level shear will some...
still pumping up towers atm even with the shear, the divergence is likely off -setting some of the shear affects.
- very strong divergence + 30...
Its still fairly moist out there where the cyclone is.Only thing been holding the system back is shear in past
12 hrs. The low level structure is...
EC 12z thinks penny is large enough to protect the center from dry air intrusion
ec thinking it may get a bit gusty.
Penny is trying too embed a core atm. Lets see how she looks in the morning. Also as you likely already know
the stronger the system gets the more...
Fresh GFS 4 ya trap
Actually reminds me of a deja vu. possible Debbie like system only more expansive.
Outta here now. was just a brief heads up.
I would be preparing for a cyclone with possibly upto cat3 core winds crossing south of townsville.