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Soufrière reported ash plume initially to 3000m and moving ne ...looks to be possibility of rf in area....difficult to be certain, but imagine it...
....another factor possibly at play which may be obvious from present depth section means/anomalies is the equatorial undercurrent ( in vicinity...
A lot to unpack though. Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Tropospheric Variability Robert J. Leamon Scott W. McIntosh Daniel R. Marsh...
Recent advection of warm surface anomalies into East Pacific [img] anonymous eastward current in the "zone" [img] [img] Equatorial counter...
Cyclonic formation left upper -the near centre reading is 229 - these are maximum gusts gfs currently forecast from 06z today until the 25th...
..probably more accurate to add having looked at the charts a little longer, ecmwf does have a cyclonic feature in similar location to GFS ..only...
GFS westerly burst seems dependant on location of forecast cyclonic formation - 00z today it's around 145-150E/5N+ by about the 17thApril. ECMWF...
GFS toying with idea of early weakening in last few days of modelling. [IMG]
Single-year La Niña events tend to develop narrowly within the tropics from a central Pacific-type El Niño (Niño-4 > Niño-3), whereas multi-year...
If a neutral season is accepted between the two with the classification allowed for here https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm possibly 3 of 4...
NCEP currently defined SPV edge on 1000K isentropic surface(~5hpa). I like the very precise way the edge is drawn. [IMG] No charts for...
SH SPV re-emergent in the upper stratosphere and set to descend with polar night.[image courtesy STRATOBSERVE] [IMG]
I'll have a stab.This is as I understand it Equatorial Kelvin wave and Rossby wave have vastly different propagation speeds - the returning RW...
Brief discussion https://climateimpactcompany.com/weekly-enso-diagnostics-emerging-kelvin-wave-shifting-into-the-east-pacific-a-la-nina-killer-2-2/
Latest 6 model outputs from C3S - Zonal Mean U10hPa@ 60S CMCC is still stepping towards a much more aggressive intensification(following on from...
I've read that the migration of ssta's from baja california to the dateline is something like a year. The last pic post #933 cool anoms look to be...
....a period of tropospheric anomalies intermittently patched from the stratospheric PV which looks to have pretty much finished..as forecasts...
Dont know that av soi for June-Nov wd put current event in same category as the 12 years bom uses for average impacts. Av of ~4.7+ for 2020 based...
Interesting look as the sub-surface cold pool seems to lift on a decisive trajectory in past days [IMG]
Of the 6 individual agency models presently badged under the umbrella of C3S(Copernicus) forecasting U@10hpa for the season ahead, 3 pretty much...
