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  1. H

    Technical Current & Forecast Climate Drivers

    Seems a bit too keen IMO. A similar forecast was produced in May for our winter which ended up being below average (mainly due to a dry August - the driest since 2015).
  2. H

    2021 NH Cyclone/Hurricane/Typhoons

    Grafton (well Yamba/Iluka) never gets anywhere near 32degC Sea surface temps that are offshore New Orleans. 27c is about as high as it gets at Yamba.
  3. H

    Technical Current & Forecast Climate Drivers

    IOD looks to be retreating to Neutral by our summer. It might be wet along the East coast of Australia, but probably getting dry in Vic (and it already is!). Part of me wonders that we might get a rather lively storm season later in Spring.
  4. H

    Day to Day VIC & Melbourne weather

    Lots of downgrades with 00z forecast models for Vic next weekend. Very ho hum.... Except for Access-G!
  5. H

    Technical Current & Forecast Climate Drivers

    Interesting article on CNN about the SW Pacific SSTa anomalies: https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/26/world/blob-chile-megadrought-study-intl-hnk-scli-scn/index.html
  6. H

    Day to Day VIC & Melbourne weather

    And the August drought rolls on here.... Dry Southeasterly and the ground is like a rock. Maybe something on Sunday (up to 10mm), then hairdryer for a week or so. Do not like. The -ve IOD has not delivered. Disappointing.
  7. H

    Day to Day VIC & Melbourne weather

    Interesting to see what the bombing ECL off NSW does. Appears to be two waves of cold into Vic this week:
  8. H

    Day to Day VIC & Melbourne weather

    Quite a dry August here. And the coming weekend doesn't look particularly wet - maybe just 10mm in it for us. Very disappointing for a strong -ve IOD. MJO being in the wrong place the main factor IMO.
  9. H

    Predictions 21-26 Aug System

    Looks pretty cold on the 23rd & 24th according to 00Z GFS.
  10. H

    Spencer's CK 2021

    There were a few big falls in October 1996. Decent skiing on the Main Range well into November.
  11. H

    Spencer's CK 2021

    That won't be repeated this year. Of note - early Sept 1995 had the most epic cold outbreak of the past 30 years. Snow fell 50km North of Bendigo and Mt Dandenong was covered in snow top to base. August 1996 is a closer parallel IMO - a lean August, but some big falls in September.
  12. H

    Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

    MJO won't pay us a visit until the last week of August by the looks of it. 12z EC is throwing up a system on August 17th though. Not particularly cold unfortunately.
  13. H

    Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

    August is looking a bit lean tbh.
  14. H

    Day to Day VIC & Melbourne weather

    Yep. Funny thing is that it's been in lots of small doses for 5 out of 7 days per week. Unlike last year where it would sunny nearly all of the time interspersed with a couple of big falls. Ground is pretty squishy and the creeks are gently flowing. Very easy to get bogged in your car if...
  15. H

    Day to Day VIC & Melbourne weather

    We scored 8mm overnight. We've had over 100mm since 12th July. Now looking at 2 weeks of barely anything. I have a hunch that late-August and into September might get rather funky though.
  16. H

    Technical General Stratospheric Observations

    Somewhat related to the polar jet - a significant cold outbreak in Brazil last week: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-30/snow-blankets-parts-of-southern-brazil/100339282 Many coffee plantations badly affected too.
  17. H

    Day to Day VIC & Melbourne weather

    Not really. Pretty normal for late-July/early-August IMO.
  18. H

    Day to Day VIC & Melbourne weather

    Looking at another 10-15mm here tomorrow. That might be it for a while though. We're finally getting some half-decent river flows around here. Nearly 2000 ML/day flowing into Lake Eppalock although will drop given the dry 8-10 days beyond tomorrow.
  19. H

    Technical General Stratospheric Observations

    It looks like a continuous conveyor of tropical heat from Indonesia to Eastern Antarctica via Darwin and the Tasman Sea...
  20. H

    Technical General Stratospheric Observations

    Interesting. Is the Southern Polar jet screwed up atm?

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