winter 2020

It might not be much but it's still there on paper, a quick front/trough through the South East Next Saturday/Sunday, to round out the month. Book ended by ridge influences either-side, it puts it in the 'weak' category for now. Good agreement amongst global models. As usual GFS the bullish one...

Once we're over this bump at the end of the week, we look to see a swift wave pattern pass the SE 18-21st. Aided by a diving AAO, we see an amplification of a number of short wave systems through this date range. Looking reasonably solid on deterministic at this point EC: There's at least 3...

EC Ensembles have been pointing to this guy for about 3-4 days now. It appears to be another case of a short wave forging through a low wave, resulting in a cut off system in the Bight, so is somewhat reliant on the Westerly trajectory. Plenty of chance for ridging and sliding IMO. As a result...

It wouldn't be an obs thread if it didn't kick off with a Himawari8 Sat grab. Two winter system spanning two coasts - An uncommon occurrence but stranger things have happened in 2020. Watch the comma of cold air (SW of Tassie) head northward today.

Tricky one, this one. Not likely to be a lotta love for the Snowies and Vic Alpine. All the same we've currently got an inversion with Cooma warming up outta negs (& precip!?). Still light winds in the resorts at elevation, 10-15km/h in the NSW Resorts.

WA peaker (16th/17th) is a big system for the Sou-West, but EC and GFS moderately aligned to suggest we'll see the offcuts and remnants, aka Clipper through the SE on the 19th/20th. Ridge influence sees to a mere top up at the moment. EC 12z GFS GFS: At this stage there doesn't appear...

Himawari8 showing some spin cycle through Eastern SA.

Lining up on LWT modeling is the potential for a cradled low scenario to form this weekend as it enters the Tasman. Given it forms from an ULL it has the potential for severe local damage as a result of the slow-moving cradled-low set-up. Global models paiting a grim mid-range picture at the...

Some agreement between GFS & EC, both signall a decent chance at a winter system for the SE in this date range. GFS Long Wave plots suggest there may be back to back systems, where as EC bids on a cut-off scenario. GFS EC showing an abundance of cold air. With a broad-based UL trough...

Perisher and Thredbo on 6 & 3ºC respectively. Long way to go yet but in she comes.

As the title suggests we're likely to be stuck in a blocking High pattern for the next 10 days. Beyond this ensembles show a reputable system to shift the block. Our next major opportunity of snow in the SE. Virtually all models suggest MJO is not much use to our region as the Eastern Pac and...

Ensembles and deterministic models have been signaling a tricky system, buried in the shadows of today's falls. @Jellybeans made mention a 4-5 days ago now. There is alignment for a clipper system 10/11th. Ensembles VERY supportive at this stage. Bit surreal to talking back to back systems in...