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Predictions 10-13 August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 6, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has been a bit meh on it and wavering on it in recent runs. EC & The Canuck seem a little more optimistic.
    But I think there's a chance of a clipper on Friday arvo.

    5-10cm in it, best case scenario IMO.

    NB. Thursday is a right off in terms of being on the slopes if you ask me. Winds will be chronic ahead of this front.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Resort level winds on Thursday PM
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm driving down Thurs. Will erect spinnaker.
     
  3. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    Looks probably cold enough, but moisture? 5-10cm still a nice freshen up after the dump...
     
  4. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    So your predicting my Friday very early AM drive up the Alpine Way may be a bit blowy. Chainsaw packed -check , extra fuel and bar oil packed - check , winch in good order - check , external lighting packed - check. Ok ready.
     
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  5. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pretty marginal to non-existent for NSW? Might be ok for Victoria.
     
  6. Ludaning

    Ludaning Hard Yards

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    Damn , i drive down Wednesday with Thursday being my first day. Got the kids booked in ski school Thurs,Fri and Sunday. Any idea on conditions on these days?
     
  7. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The old South East slider.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    To be fair, the bulk of the wind is overnight Thursday and Friday night. Conditions deteriorate for Vic on Thursday Afternoon. Friday/sat holds best hope for some precip but it'll be light, thanks to the ridge of high pressure.
     
  9. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    As per normal programming the ridge will determine .
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    What about snow gear ???
     
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  11. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Loooking like a lot of wind and not much bing, will delay departure.
    Though our European friends are still confident of juice. Showing 20mm of moisture
     
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, further divergence between GFS & EC this AM. EC putting those falls amongst 1016-1020hPa - I think moisture progged on EC is looking a little overcooked IMO.

    Although, instability might be enough to shake the fruit from the tree, so to speak.
    Still 5-10cm IMO.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bearing in mind this is a 'WA system' (actually peaks West of WA), it's quite a good system for SW WA but seldom does much come to both sides of the continent in this sort of scenario.
     
  14. Taipan

    Taipan Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Still a bit out. If it does slide south then I dont think we will see much rain in it (if any).

    It was looking a lot more positive - but these systems move around. Great southern ocean. Windiest place in the world. So much energy

    Havent been around weather forums for last few years but some of you young chaps are doing a fine job.

    The baton appears to have been passed.

    Forecasting now appears to be in new, younger and competent hands.

    Great thing for the next 30 years!

    Only advice. Models are good and a slowly getting better out to 4 days, but do not underestimate your own experience of the weather systems in this part of the world.
     
  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Clipper IMO
     
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  16. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trying to decide if it's worth trying to drive down on Thursday night...
     
  17. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm thinking the low is forecast to be positioned bit too far South.
    See if the "blocking" high breaks down as it snot big at all / borderline in a pressure sense..
    [​IMG]
     
  18. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag says kinda

    5 nodal at mo.

    [​IMG]
     
  19. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Ridging appears to be the dominant factor - Clipper as others have already suggested appears to be the most likely outcome:

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  21. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Yep looks cold and wet for SW WA, good to see them getting some rain after what seems like years of drought
     
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  22. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm confirmed for 2 days at the start of this, so it'll miss completely. But I'm a little miffed at the warm temps on the Thursday which will affect some cover, very marginally. Will be crusty on Friday morning.
     
  23. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That looks ok for NSW, and wet for Buller
     
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  24. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC00z not amazing, but not all bad news here. The Westerly flow looks to yield to some clipper action.
    [​IMG]
    GFS 00z
    [​IMG]
     
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  26. Vandans

    Vandans Addicted

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    warming up though at the end Adelaide 7 day forecast

    recast for the rest of Monday
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Max 16
    Partly cloudy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 mm
    Chance of any rain: 20% [​IMG]
    Adelaide area
    Partly cloudy. Slight (20%) chance of a shower, clearing during the afternoon. Winds west to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h becoming southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon then light and variable in the evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 11:20 am to 1:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    7 day Town Forecasts
    Precis Icon Location Min Max
    [​IMG] Adelaide – 16
    [​IMG] Elizabeth – 15
    [​IMG] Glenelg – 15
    [​IMG] Noarlunga – 15
    [​IMG] Mount Barker – 14
    Tuesday 8 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 7
    Max 16
    Partly cloudy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 mm
    Chance of any rain: 5% [​IMG]
    Adelaide area
    Partly cloudy. Patchy morning fog about the northern suburbs. Light winds becoming northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 11:00 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    Wednesday 9 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 9
    Max 19
    Partly cloudy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 mm
    Chance of any rain: 0% [​IMG]
    Adelaide area
    Partly cloudy. Winds north to northeasterly 20 to 30 km/h increasing to 25 to 35 km/h during the evening.

    Sun protection recommended from 10:50 am to 2:00 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

    Thursday 10 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 13
    Max 20
    Shower or two developing.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 5 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Adelaide area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. Winds northerly 25 to 35 km/h turning west to northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h during the morning.

    Sun protection recommended from 11:30 am to 1:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 3 [Moderate]

    Friday 11 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 9
    Max 15
    Shower or two.
    Possible rainfall: 1 to 4 mm
    Chance of any rain: 60% [​IMG]
    Adelaide area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely during the morning. Winds westerly 25 to 35 km/h.

    Saturday 12 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 8
    Max 15
    Partly cloudy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 mm
    Chance of any rain: 5% [​IMG]
    Adelaide area
    Partly cloudy. Light winds.

    Sunday 13 August
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 8
    Max 19
    Sunny.
    Possible rainfall: 0 mm
    Chance of any rain: 5% [​IMG]
    Adelaide area
    Sunny. Winds north to northeasterly 25 to 35 km/h.
     
  27. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting divergence on GFS vs AXS R at 72 hrs (i barely look beyond there at Meso models)
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Low level hair dryer. Solid low level feed early Thursday AM.
    [​IMG]
     
  29. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, cover will be excellent over the next couple of days with low temps.

    Imho the warmest air doesn't hit till late Thurs - possibly after sunset - so offset by that and will reduce any melt, but that top few mm will make for fast conditions early on Fri. But I don't see much of a top up of cover, if any.
     
  30. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest yr.no is still bullish for this change
     
  31. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunbury getting lashed with hail and wind...it's icy out side .......ganna be a fun drive home....
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hard to see it on the Geo Pot/MSLP modelling but there is some troughing that comes up out the South in the Bight on Thursday night - it'll be up to those bands to carry enough moisture IMO.
    BOM 4-dayer gives us some clues here.
     
    #32 POW_hungry, Aug 7, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2017
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  33. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Supported by a little low.
     
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  34. Vandans

    Vandans Addicted

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    BOM tonight say 20 deg for Canberra Wednesday week any comment on the warm hairdryer coming next week or is BOM dreaming 20 seems a big call this early in August for Canberra
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next Wednesday?!
    BoM doesn't publish temp ranges beyond a 7-day forecast, even for capitals centres.
     
  36. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO hard to get excited about this one currently.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Pretty much ridged out to a clipper. Tasmania will do well, perhaps up to 10cm on the mainland, but temps will be marginal so perhaps just as well it's not any more.

    16th looks a little damp (GFS / EC) - something to keep an eye on. Looks better on CMC.
     
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  37. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM showing 19 & 19 for this coming Sunday and Monday. Wearherzone saying the same, but 18c for Tuesday.

    Blardy warm for Melbourne in August.
     
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  38. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Again
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Warming trend on the way no doubt about it with the positioning of the High by the w/e. Surface winds will determine the diurnal high here, but our backs against the wall with the way the upper level jets are pushing systems SE. So yeah possible.
    ...but for Wednesday week? That's another fairytail yet.
    [​IMG]
     
  40. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I decided not to take a chance on next week and go as soon as I could. Wife could have come next week, which would make the trip home easier but I didn't like the look of next weeks charts.

    IMHO - I think central Oz is already showing signs of heating up and exporting that to the SE, happened a couple of weeks ago too.
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wise. Looks fickle next week.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS and The Canuck are coming around with this one, but as CC mentioned; temps are going to be the real variable. Follow up trough on Saturday looks like a reasonable shot above 1800m IMO.
    EC still bullish on precip values.
    Friday arvo clipper looks a little weaker.

    EC 12z


    GFS 12z


    The Canadian
     
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  43. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher special me thinks ... for 10cm LOL
    I'm just a bit worried about the wind.
     
  44. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Its going to be blowing its absolute t!ts off - expect plenty of wind hold
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    5cm or 10cm or 15cm?
     
  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    what you did there...
    I see Gatorade bottles now come in 5cm, 10cm and 15cm sizes. Far easy this way.

    Stay on topic.
     
  47. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    What about 15 at 6am updated to 5cm at 9?
     
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  48. Rush

    Rush Pool Room

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    I'm at Hotham from the 11th - 16th and looking at ECMWF and ACCESS charts I can't see anything else than rain.

    I have no idea where yr.no is getting its dumpage from.
     
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  49. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    aka normal programming
     
  50. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm still tied up in knots on UTC times and the correct updates after living in the U.K. Have to keep correcting myself.

    I've said it before - 06Z was generally accepted as the 'accurate' run with the best inputs. 18z too. The other runs were the pub runs - great entertainment value only with only half of the inputs. You can only compare 18z runs with each other, do not try to compare 06z with 18z.

    With that in mind, comparing the model progression between Sunday and Monday for Thursday afternoon - IMHO stability increases and slightly higher temps, along with increased winds overnight.

    IMHO - Friday am - the warmer air is taking longer to clear the ranges than expected and will have a second day of impacting the top few mm. Pressure is increasing, winds are slightly easing between the 2 runs also. Tiny spots of precipitation will likely not eventuate.

    IMHO - Fri pm - blow torch has passed and temps cooling down. Winds continue to lessen with model progression and still no precipitation.

    Probably no point in worrying about further observations as there's little change between the runs, only greater impact from the high.
     
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