Predictions 10-13 August

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Aug 6, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    For the most part agreed, but it's not all in the run trends, it's the divergence between the models for this one. For me Thursday Friday is virtually locked in but quite varied progs between EC & GFS (and even The candian model) for Saturday on wards.
     
    Claude Cat and filski like this.
  2. Every2years

    Every2years Just Registered

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2017
    Messages:
    6
    Likes Received:
    11
    Vested interest in this period as I will be at Falls for a week beginning the 11th. Have been keeping an eye on the models but i don't have enough understanding to appreciate the differences. Loving watching the commentary.
     
  3. Bloke

    Bloke Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2011
    Messages:
    721
    Likes Received:
    1,033
  4. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    27,207
    Likes Received:
    8,173
    followed by an early corn harvest
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    GFS 00z looking a little closer to EC for Saturday. Looks ok above 1700m IMO.
    I still only see maybe a 10cm gain for the higher resorts.
    I think the alps will be largely be spared for large + temp anoms on Mon/Tues but Wednesday onwards remains a bit of a concern at this point.
     
    #55 POW_hungry, Aug 8, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2017
  6. filski

    filski Old And Crusty
    30 Day Pass

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2011
    Messages:
    30,251
    Likes Received:
    6,628
    With cover in this condition from this week it'll be early spring conditions from that. There's a little **** in the forecast though, but not too much... hopefully.

    I suggest not to panic though, still a long way to go.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  7. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,519
    Likes Received:
    409
    Yeah, 00Z GFS has backed away a bit from the blowtorch scenario for early next week. I suspect that around August 18 the LWT might be in a good position for more polar goodness....
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    Somewhere in the 16-19AUG range.
    It's amplitude may be it's own worst enemy as models have it drawing in pina colada air & moisture by next Wednesday.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  9. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    1,001
    Likes Received:
    1,507
    I'll be happy if it slip slides away.... Burton Junior series on this weekend and all.
    However looks like a clipper
     
    The Plowking and Claude Cat like this.
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    1,001
    Likes Received:
    1,507
    12.35cm at perisher
    maybe .37

    falling to 1512 m asl
     
  11. filski

    filski Old And Crusty
    30 Day Pass

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2011
    Messages:
    30,251
    Likes Received:
    6,628
    At 9.05pm to 11.36pm?
     
    'Paris' and POW_hungry like this.
  12. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
    EC still showing this good for 10-20cm/mm. 1600m and above should be ok.
    I fear for Buller a little with westerly influence and marginal temps we know what that means.

    IMO
     
    Deanski, Every2years and The Plowking like this.
  13. Woodsy1991

    Woodsy1991 Just Registered

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2017
    Messages:
    2
    Likes Received:
    0
    What are the winds looking like for the nsw resorts on the Saturday?
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    Not pleasant, I am afraid. Wind hold is looking inevitable for some exposed lifts for much of the day IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
    Woodsy1991 likes this.
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    BoM precip values for Saturday have been given some juice.
    Reading between the lines you could see 10-15cm across the majors according to BoM.
    I am still siding with 5-10cm for now.

    Perisher:
     
    Lady Penelope likes this.
  16. derwent

    derwent Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 13, 2014
    Messages:
    667
    Likes Received:
    400
    I'd be surprised if it wasn't about 10 cm of snot across the board. imo.
     
  17. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    1,001
    Likes Received:
    1,507
    Smiggs it is.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    Perth has picked up 40% more than what it was progged to pick up for this time tonight. 18mm since midday today.
    As have a number of other centres around the metro area.

    Tomorrow's runs for Friday/Saturday should be interesting.
     
  19. IZY WILLIAMS

    IZY WILLIAMS Just Registered

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2017
    Messages:
    2
    Likes Received:
    0
    Confirm that Friday and Saturday are going to be gust winds?
     
  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,338
    Likes Received:
    27,134
    Slip sliding....
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  21. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
    Not a bad thing IMO
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    EC still liking it for 10 cents. Same as it ever was.
    5-10cm I say.
    Winds still there Thursday. Friday looks a fair bit better.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    Friday and Saturday still looking like moderate-strong winds, Sunday looks like the pick of the bunch IMO.
     
  24. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    1,001
    Likes Received:
    1,507
    Yeah i'm seeing 40-60 kmph winds for P increasing during friday - gale friday night -saturday AM , then moderating .
    However the charts are taking backwards steps , so i'd not be shocked to see just moderate winds and partly cloudy .
    Sunday looks benign.
     
  25. filski

    filski Old And Crusty
    30 Day Pass

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2011
    Messages:
    30,251
    Likes Received:
    6,628
    I wouldn't mind if winds stayed below 30km...
     
  26. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    1,001
    Likes Received:
    1,507
    Thats a miracle
     
    filski likes this.
  27. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    125
    Likes Received:
    62
    15th - 16th looks possible as well, but for pre-frontal problems IMO
     
  28. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,625
    Likes Received:
    1,748
    Slightly off topic but with all the hype from the 1m+ dump, it's going to be VERY busy this weekend with all the punters trying to get down there only to be disappointed by the Gale force winds causing everything to go on wind hold :whistle:

    On topic: My prediction for this period - Gale force winds and wind hold :D
     
    Edgecrusher likes this.
  29. chicski

    chicski Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    1,474
    Likes Received:
    1,842
    Have heard that there is no accomodation as far afield as Cooma for this weekend in the NSW alps.
     
    alexd, FourSquare04 and skimax like this.
  30. filski

    filski Old And Crusty
    30 Day Pass

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2011
    Messages:
    30,251
    Likes Received:
    6,628
    There are single nights available on snow and off but you have to work hard to find it.
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    1,001
    Likes Received:
    1,507
    Every weekend is busy nowadays , and midweeks as well.
    The accomodation has reached critical mass . Pretty much the same as every weekend
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  32. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2009
    Messages:
    633
    Likes Received:
    38
    Surely that's a good thing for the Australian Snow industry?
     
  33. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    1,001
    Likes Received:
    1,507
    Prob better discussed elsewhere , but sure you'd think so no?
     
  34. IZY WILLIAMS

    IZY WILLIAMS Just Registered

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2017
    Messages:
    2
    Likes Received:
    0
    Thanks. Hopefully the weather holds this pattern.
     
  35. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2000
    Messages:
    27,624
    Likes Received:
    9,143
    or even 30knots
     
    filski likes this.
  36. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    1,001
    Likes Received:
    1,507
    Reef the main, stow the jib
     
  37. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,625
    Likes Received:
    1,748
    Not unusual at all for mid August - peak season.

    Not unusual at all for the whole month of August & especially if the weekend forecast is pointing towards sunny & clear conditions.

    I predict this weekend will be off the charts though given the amount of snow we've had & the (social) media coverage
     
  38. Donzah

    Donzah Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    1,001
    Likes Received:
    1,507
    I don't think it can get any busier
    Its just impossible.
    The amount of people this year has been standard every weekend , but the terrain open has funnelled them into spots.

    Anyways , looking more and more like a snow for tassie, cloud and wind for NSW and rain for Buller
    Fair bit of west in that
    [​IMG]
     
  39. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    4,625
    Likes Received:
    1,748
    Incoming for Perth / SW WA on the 4 Day :eek:
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    Not nearly as big as today's system but yeah they've got 'em racked and stacked ATM.
     
    FourSquare04 likes this.
  41. Edgecrusher

    Edgecrusher Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2013
    Messages:
    45,428
    Likes Received:
    20,276
    Perth's already had 2 inches, and could see at least another inch before the week is out. I'm sure our farmers would be pretty pleased with similar totals in the SE.
     
    nfip, FourSquare04 and POW_hungry like this.
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    Right in the sweet spot for the wheatbelt. They could be thankful they're not getting Perth's values
     
    Edgecrusher and Claude Cat like this.
  43. Rush

    Rush Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2000
    Messages:
    42,160
    Likes Received:
    9,781
    ACCESS-R gives me some hope that Hotham will receive some non-liquid precipitation during this period.
     
    MarkV and POW_hungry like this.
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
    That's a pretty big event for (SW) WA.
    Admittedly, they generally get all their rain in 3 months of the year (Jul-Aug) and that's more than we get in Melbourne in a year, it's still a big event!
     
    DiscoStuAU and POW_hungry like this.
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    I think with the exception of Buller the majors will walk away unscathed here with a gain. Even GFS is suggesting snow above 1600/1700m for precipable times on Saturday.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    y
    sure is and it's frontal! Most of the interior's source would more be from NW upper level troughs.
    The precip quantities we're seeing in frontal activity of recent weeks is quite remarkable for a marginally +IOD etc.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  47. 1000m

    1000m Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    64
    Likes Received:
    44
  48. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,519
    Likes Received:
    409
    Big difference in temps before and after the front. i.e 29.6c at Eucla and 13.8c at Esperance.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  49. filski

    filski Old And Crusty
    30 Day Pass

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2011
    Messages:
    30,251
    Likes Received:
    6,628
    BOM indicating wind speeds a lot lower in NSW on Friday now?