For the most part agreed, but it's not all in the run trends, it's the divergence between the models for this one. For me Thursday Friday is virtually locked in but quite varied progs between EC & GFS (and even The candian model) for Saturday on wards.
Vested interest in this period as I will be at Falls for a week beginning the 11th. Have been keeping an eye on the models but i don't have enough understanding to appreciate the differences. Loving watching the commentary.
GFS 00z looking a little closer to EC for Saturday. Looks ok above 1700m IMO. I still only see maybe a 10cm gain for the higher resorts. I think the alps will be largely be spared for large + temp anoms on Mon/Tues but Wednesday onwards remains a bit of a concern at this point.
With cover in this condition from this week it'll be early spring conditions from that. There's a little **** in the forecast though, but not too much... hopefully. I suggest not to panic though, still a long way to go.
Yeah, 00Z GFS has backed away a bit from the blowtorch scenario for early next week. I suspect that around August 18 the LWT might be in a good position for more polar goodness....
Somewhere in the 16-19AUG range. It's amplitude may be it's own worst enemy as models have it drawing in pina colada air & moisture by next Wednesday.
I'll be happy if it slip slides away.... Burton Junior series on this weekend and all. However looks like a clipper
EC still showing this good for 10-20cm/mm. 1600m and above should be ok. I fear for Buller a little with westerly influence and marginal temps we know what that means. IMO
Not pleasant, I am afraid. Wind hold is looking inevitable for some exposed lifts for much of the day IMO.
BoM precip values for Saturday have been given some juice. Reading between the lines you could see 10-15cm across the majors according to BoM. I am still siding with 5-10cm for now. Perisher:
Perth has picked up 40% more than what it was progged to pick up for this time tonight. 18mm since midday today. As have a number of other centres around the metro area. Tomorrow's runs for Friday/Saturday should be interesting.
EC still liking it for 10 cents. Same as it ever was. 5-10cm I say. Winds still there Thursday. Friday looks a fair bit better.
Friday and Saturday still looking like moderate-strong winds, Sunday looks like the pick of the bunch IMO.
Yeah i'm seeing 40-60 kmph winds for P increasing during friday - gale friday night -saturday AM , then moderating . However the charts are taking backwards steps , so i'd not be shocked to see just moderate winds and partly cloudy . Sunday looks benign.
Slightly off topic but with all the hype from the 1m+ dump, it's going to be VERY busy this weekend with all the punters trying to get down there only to be disappointed by the Gale force winds causing everything to go on wind hold On topic: My prediction for this period - Gale force winds and wind hold
Every weekend is busy nowadays , and midweeks as well. The accomodation has reached critical mass . Pretty much the same as every weekend
Not unusual at all for mid August - peak season. Not unusual at all for the whole month of August & especially if the weekend forecast is pointing towards sunny & clear conditions. I predict this weekend will be off the charts though given the amount of snow we've had & the (social) media coverage
I don't think it can get any busier Its just impossible. The amount of people this year has been standard every weekend , but the terrain open has funnelled them into spots. Anyways , looking more and more like a snow for tassie, cloud and wind for NSW and rain for Buller Fair bit of west in that
Perth's already had 2 inches, and could see at least another inch before the week is out. I'm sure our farmers would be pretty pleased with similar totals in the SE.
ACCESS-R gives me some hope that Hotham will receive some non-liquid precipitation during this period.
That's a pretty big event for (SW) WA. Admittedly, they generally get all their rain in 3 months of the year (Jul-Aug) and that's more than we get in Melbourne in a year, it's still a big event!
I think with the exception of Buller the majors will walk away unscathed here with a gain. Even GFS is suggesting snow above 1600/1700m for precipable times on Saturday.
y sure is and it's frontal! Most of the interior's source would more be from NW upper level troughs. The precip quantities we're seeing in frontal activity of recent weeks is quite remarkable for a marginally +IOD etc.
