Predictions 10-13 August

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 6, 2017.

  1. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dying.... As is the wind. Might even be sunny!
     
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  2. NjB

    NjB Hard Yards

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    How bad is the wind going to be at Buller tomorrow?
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Ah, there's a strong wind warning?
     
  4. Sbooker

    Sbooker One of Us

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    Anyone care to give me an idea of how wet I will get while skiing Thredbo next Monday/Tuesday 14/15? A while out so it's understandable different weather sites have different opinions.
    Thanks.
     
  5. Ian

    Ian Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Turns out there's a rotary tactile stimulator for that.

    "The perception of wetness did not, however, differ significantly across body sites and there were no significant interactions between wetness level and body site.

    Basically you can only be 'wet' or 'dry'

    The present study emphasizes the importance of understanding how bottom-up and top-down processes interact to generate complex perceptions."


    Depends if you're a bottom-up or top-down kind of guy...
     
  6. GNF

    GNF Hard Yards

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    I am trying to look at this system with a positive mind (as a Buller skier). Perhaps the modeling will improve over the coming days but unfortunately I only see rain for Buller. The system is too weak, too warm and Buller cops the dreaded Westerlies. I have seen systems like this wack Buller with 30 - 40mm of rain with the rest of the resorts getting off with little rain or even light snow.

    That said, there is still a chance Buller can get some snow, particularly on Friday night.

    I will be able to report from the mountain.
     
  7. 1000m

    1000m Hard Yards

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    That's a big drop. How will it translate to here when it hits?
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It doesn't 'hit' here. It slides SE.
    I don't see anything to suggest that sort of rainfall. We're talking 10-15mm max - even with orographic lift IMO. This is not going to be a system of any, or much anomaly, range, depth or significance for the Aus alps.
    ... but the prospect for 5 maybe 10 cents is still there.
     
    #108 POW_hungry, Aug 9, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2017
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  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    If look at trends , which in reality models reflect by design. We are looking at a declining situation. In other words . What is progged for the forthcoming days may not occur. The westerly belt is there for sure. However it keeps stepping down in latitude.
     
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  10. NjB

    NjB Hard Yards

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    As a non-weather person this confuses me. I can see now there is a warning but the BoM Buller forecast itself still says "Winds north to northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h." Anyway - lift hold looks likely now then :(
     
  11. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not too bad .
    [​IMG]
     
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  12. filski

    filski Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup, conditions look like improving as we get closer. I think me spending $40 on protection for the face did it.
     
  13. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It does seem a little at odds with the strong wind warning.
    It will be blowy, but Buller tends to deal with that reasonably well. Difficult to say what will be on hold (if any) and what won't.
     
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Date range adjusted to include the 10th as we're discussing that too.
     
  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The rate we're going..its Pina Colada time on Saturday
     
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  16. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    And there's a comp on at Perisher too.
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO 00EC has backed off the amount of moisture for 11-12th. 5cm looks about it above 1500m
     
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  18. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    There the week after.
    Ah well.
    Good base......

    Going all WA-centric again.
     
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  19. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not as wet as if you were at Buller in a westerly.
     
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  20. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Efa
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM bringing things back a little more inline with what models suggest , in the Alpine Forecast this morning (5-15cm). They've jumped around a bit with this one.
     
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  22. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    ben will get more pow :)
     
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  23. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Doing well is the ben!