Predictions 10-16th August - Clearing The Mess

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
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May 28, 2000
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Good agreement between EC and GFS. It’s a bit of a slider at the moment but I think it will improve once we get through the mess by Friday’s runs (or is it Thursday that has the runs…)

GFS
FC80209F-E6CF-41CC-91F0-FB27C5484B07.png



Pop me down for a foot across major resorts IMO.
 

rowsey85

Hard Yards
Oct 3, 2013
25
18
58
Good agreement between EC and GFS. It’s a bit of a slider at the moment but I think it will improve once we get through the mess by Friday’s runs (or is it Thursday that has the runs…)

GFS
FC80209F-E6CF-41CC-91F0-FB27C5484B07.png



Pop me down for a foot across major resorts IMO.
It certainly looks good on recent runs, has showed up for a few days now on the majority.
The high down around south west WA is a perfect set up for this. Fingers crossed the storm door is now open with the -IOD
For the record i also see some interesting scenarios showing further out around 16th with the same positioned high around SW WA :emoji_speak_no_evil:
 
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MickM

A Local
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Aug 15, 2001
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Some strange looking charts this morning. Doesn't look cold.

Hopefully correct themselves once the sh*tshow is over.
 

teleroo

leaf blower aficionado
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Jun 19, 2019
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I’m clueless about some of these terms. Is this good?
Me guessing....but I think the reference to cutoff is referring to the fact that the cold blob doesn't connect to other cold weather systems that circulate around the Southern Ocean south of Tas. It's a bit of a wandering cold blob.

Stacked?? Not sure on that one, could be referring to it potentially being a deep cold blob.

Hmm...I think this bit refers to the potential for weired outcomes. Could be a surprising amount of snow. Could be snow in strange places. Could be nothing.

I think. Trying to decipher Donza-ese.
 

Karicta

A Local
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Aug 9, 2011
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I honestly think all models ‘struggle’ when there is a significant/unusual set up preceding - as now
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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EC is having real troubles with this one.
No compute on the back to back neg IOD and La Niña setup, I think.

GFS suggesting more rain.
It’s all start again in terms of alignment and trend.
 

MickM

A Local
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Aug 15, 2001
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EC is having real troubles with this one.
No compute on the back to back neg IOD and La Niña setup, I think.

GFS suggesting more rain.
It’s all start again in terms of alignment and trend.
Yeah, all a bit messy this morning.

Is negative IOD good for snow? What time does EC update?

Cheers
 

mick chopps

Pool Room
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Jun 22, 2006
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EC is having real troubles with this one.
No compute on the back to back neg IOD and La Niña setup, I think.

GFS suggesting more rain.
It’s all start again in terms of alignment and trend.
Seems to my untrained eye like some reasonable alignment between the 18z GFS and 12z EC, up to about the ~11th, then things go a bit awry. Both agree on the early peak over the SW (WA gets smashed again), then cut off and wandering across the bight.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Seems to my untrained eye like some reasonable alignment between the 18z GFS and 12z EC, up to about the ~11th, then things go a bit awry. Both agree on the early peak over the SW (WA gets smashed again), then cut off and wandering across the bight.
Yeah WA peak will draw in another NW cloud band of moisture IMO. Tidak bagus.
 

telecrag

Old n' Crusty
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Oct 12, 2007
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Yeah, all a bit messy this morning.

Is negative IOD good for snow? What time does EC update?

Cheers
I would say yes and no, it tends to direct moisture down from north (tropical). That is good if it hits a polar blast, and not good if the southerly peaks early, or not at all, like now.

I think
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
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May 28, 2000
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Yeah, all a bit messy this morning.

Is negative IOD good for snow? What time does EC update?

Cheers
-IOD is good if it’s not too negative. This one cycle is looking strong, so a lot of unmixed moisture through the NW of the continent.
Ideally we want a negative IOD hovering around the threshold.

Strong negative signal also tends to lend itself to SW WA polar systems peaks.
 

BlueHue

One of Us
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Apr 17, 2003
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I'd say early peakers and neg IOD are not a good combo so in this case probably no. Leads to the inevitably of warm and wet north westerlies sliding on down into the south east just like we've just had. If next weeks system tends to early peaking I'd be expecting some more rain to some degree (not saying a repeat of this week).
 

Monsta

Hard Yards
Sep 8, 2017
43
72
68
Looks genuinely ugly on the long range GFS. Looks like that NW infeed is just rock solid and going to slide every potential incoming system down south for weeks to come.
It's either NW infeed or a blocking high squeezed between them on every chart for the next 16 days on the current GFS run. Hopefully something changes...
 
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MickM

A Local
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Aug 15, 2001
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Looks genuinely ugly on the long range GFS. Looks like that NW infeed is just rock solid and going to slide every potential incoming system down south for weeks to come.
It's either NW infeed or a blocking high squeezed between them on every chart for the next 16 days on the current GFS run. Hopefully something changes...
Yeah, hopefully there are positive changes.

One thing for certain, it will change!
 

lewis

One of Us
Jan 25, 2018
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cmc and ec agree on what looks like not too bad of a scenario. gfs not so much.
 

glengary

One of Us
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Jul 31, 2015
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It’s still a bit of a mess @MickM
Marginal system with perhaps a gain above 1700m but all that moisture is fed in from the NW and North.

Moisture upgrades likely, but on the wrong side of temps. A deep SW fetch is what we need.
69DE3643-3522-4945-8D08-4A9F6E468210.png
Maximums for Vic resorts in the positive every day. Quite a lot of
Good water skiing I think
 
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