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Predictions 10th-15th July - The Long Shot

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 30, 2019.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Off the back of some BBQ discussions, EC ensembles are trending to a decent cold shot through the SE around the 10/11th July.

    GFS 00z (Determ) has flipped on the lastest run and supports a similar scenario. But use with caution as it's only the deterministic @312 hrs out. GFS ensembles are not yet on board.

    [​IMG]
    IMO, this period is in a state of flux with some big upper-level (polar) variables at play, hence the title - given the extended long range, it's a long shot, yet. Bear with us over the next 3-5 days as things will likely swing a bit IMO.
     
  2. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings Addicted Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    A nicer set of pickies than the “NW skid mark” one you posted. But was an interesting event to follow, better info than any Fox weather channel!
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest EPS mean is on it.
     
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  4. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks good. Minimal pre-frontal. 540 line nicely North. I'm in on this one.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    The spag I posted in BBQ thread.

    [​IMG]
     
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  6. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Uh-oh :D
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC E CTRL. Same Same, but different.
     
  8. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was about to say the same thing after Astro’s last effort (the “abomination”)!

    Anyway, thanks for progging this one, @POW_hungry . If things go to plan, I will be in the mountains from 12-15 July so this would be good timing :)
     
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  9. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    At Hotham from the 14th so watching with interest
     
  10. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    We were discussing it in the BBQ thread. I'm trying to keep a safe distance. Didn't want to tempt fate. LOL

    It's a long way out. Things may change. For worse or better. Hopefully better. :thumbs:
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Healthy state of affairs on EC Ensembles (CTRL) on the 00Z run.
    10th:

    12th:
     
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  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yup...been looking at them
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yesterday's were not AS good. So it's positively trending.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Potentially some SW flow, finally.
     
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  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I would highly appreciate some of that :D
     
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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    There she is, out the back:

    Nice shape.
     
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  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Would be nice to anchor a Tony Bullimore High
     
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  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    The EPS mean and spread itself look a bit less exciting today:

    Featuring the rather out of place EC determ 9th “system”.
     
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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    00Z and 12Z comparison. A tad more Ridge seperating but def something afoot . Uppers are heading in a positive direction. Trend should come along imo
     
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice downstream push @500hPa on GEM.
     
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  21. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

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    I'm up from the 12th-21st. Can the legends on here make sure this one is a big one? It would be much appreciated :D
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    As it enters the Deterministic window it looks ridgy.
    Needs improvement. I think it will.
    10th:
    [​IMG]
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The wind-up and roll back of High is there though.

    [​IMG]
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    It looks pretty solid.
    Determ seems to be a bit later than EPS suggests, which is interesting.
    But it can change.
    Plenty of previous GFS runs backing it up in various forms over the last few days. Latest GFS doesn’t look awful either. The two determs both like the 12-13th date.

    Add in a few messy scenarios around the 9th and 10th, and it seems realistic.
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah, it's largely ridged the shortwave on the 10th (on prog above West of Tas) and beefed up the reinforcing system.
    The follow-up was always gonna be the bigger hit IMO.
     
  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Which is what I was discussing. I completely agree with that, also note the edit.
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  29. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am watching this forthcoming weather system like a hawk.
     
  31. bawbawskier77

    bawbawskier77 Hard Yards

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  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    06 GFS
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Duration looking fantastic on GFS 00z, this afternoon.

    ... season must be cactus...
     
  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    My thoughts
    Just came here to post same.
    Good timing of a 10 day trip on my behalf
     
  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like a zonal westerly setup from the 9th and then a stronger system from the 12th for a couple of days
    Its not unfeasible to see snow/sleet wind 9th/10th/11th and then proper cold front 12th-14th
     
  36. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Baddabing
    Batter batter babbbbbbbbbbbba
    [​IMG]
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Finger lick'n good.
    Ensembles no lie.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trending towards a series of systems on EC.
    [​IMG]
     
  39. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    anytime 990 lows headbutt tasmania ...its a good day
     
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    It looks great... gif.
    The 13-14th front from the polar south looks like real gold.
     
  42. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ok, this window is worth getting excited over...
     
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  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is at 40- 50 mm precip , with a fair bit of clear and a quality rebuild laying down a remedial 20 cm base imo. The 14th would be the day of the Phoenix if GFS is close to the money.
     
  44. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    10-20cm on EC for the 11th and 12th morning + say 5-10mm in rain over the 9th and 10th.
    The thing behind it looks bigger and better.
     
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  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You are adding the best scenarios from both models as a composite potential outcome. Its got good potential but needs to get over the wobbles yet.
     
  46. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Of course. There’s still 200+ hours to go.
     
  47. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    This. Or 12 days till 14 July. Anyone want to bet a pint we see nothing like this outcome?
     
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  48. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Finally something to start planning for. Bang in the middle of the school hols.
     
  49. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    Never bet a pint against a bloke with a beer tap avatar
     
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  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic.
     
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