Predictions 10th-15th July - The Long Shot

Rat trap bindings

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Jul 17, 2017
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The BOM Beta Site for Perisher Valley is a thing of Beauty for Wed to Sunday !
Huh? Why on that site it shows rain and snow? Each way bet typical of BOM?
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doogasnow

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Mar 7, 2010
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Latest access r and gfs still have 528 line barreling towards the south vic coast by lunch on Friday. But it’s not there again by 10am Saturday lol
So I’m guessing it’s all pushes through overnight Friday night and coldest has moved on by later Saturday morning imo
 
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Kletterer

Thredbo Doughnut Tragic
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Nov 26, 2014
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Quite nice. EC still has a considerable amount of additional clear stuff so its not all perfect but it will do.
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PMG

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Jan 3, 2011
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Sorry, 90 k. Hmm, 90 k from west/norwest. What's Thredbo limit hitting flush on. 80 k?
Edit. Wait and see.
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
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Jul 6, 2001
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BOM have issued a SWW for dangerous winds

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A cold front will move over Victoria on WEDNESDAY, reaching the west of the state mid-late afternoon, central parts in the evening and clearing the east Thursday morning.

DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts to 100 km/h are expected to develop about elevated areas (above 800 metres) and coastal parts of western Victoria WEDNESDAY afternoon, extending to central and eastern parts of the warning area late WEDNESDAY afternoon and evening.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h are also possible about remaining parts of the Southwest district and southwestern parts of the Wimmera district WEDNESDAY afternoon near the front, more likely associated with showers or thunderstorms.

Damaging winds are expected to gradually ease and contract to coastal parts following the passage of the front.

Locations which may be affected include Hamilton, Warrnambool, Portland, Kyneton, Ballarat, Mt Buller, Mt Hotham and Falls Creek.
 

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Gototakahashi

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Sep 26, 2017
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Hey All!
I’ve been on a holiday in the Fiji islands. Sorry!
This is the 60-80cm dump of snow I was talking about. A week ago, an small occluded front passed about 300nm south of Tasmania. This has catapulted a series of cold fronts our way over the next few days. Next week looks good too! There should be more cold fronts on their way. There were those who cast doubt among my forecasts. I do use a different method but I find it is typically pretty accurate.

See you in the powder this weekend. I’ll be at Buller.

Goto
 
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Ramshead

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Apr 5, 2006
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Hey All!
I’ve been on a holiday in the Fiji islands. Sorry!
This is the 60-80cm dump of snow I was talking about. A week ago, an small occluded front passed about 300nm south of Tasmania. This has catapulted a series of cold fronts our way over the next few days. Next week looks good too! There should be more cold fronts on their way. There were those who cast doubt among my forecasts. I do use a different method but I find it is typically pretty accurate.

See you in the powder this weekend. I’ll be at Buller.

Goto
#ClaimingTheStorm
 

Max2000

Hard Yards
Feb 15, 2018
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Do you think Buller will still get all snow on Friday? Temps looming a little bit more marginal!
 
Freeze levels 2 am Thursday- Model Comparison
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I appreciate you putting the date and time on the top of those charts #kletterer.
The writing is soooo small on the date bar and often written in fancy complicated meteorological terminology.
I have never seen that freezing level chart before. So cool..and very handy.
 

POW Hungry

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May 28, 2000
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This is looking really good. OCF tends to slightly understate precip in the mountains and it's showing a solid 50cm+ of snow settling at NSW resort level.
The thing with OCF is that it favours models which have previously performed well in that region, problem is... not all models have the topography resolution of each other. Use it to weigh falls against EC/AXS-R and you'll find it pretty freaking accurate.
 
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The thing with OCF is that it favours models which have previously performed well in that region, problem is... not all models have the topography resolution of each other. Use it to weigh falls against EC/AXS-R and you'll find it pretty freaking accurate.

Access-r is a good resoulution model, not sure if its ocean coupled yet like the top global models..
 

jonathanc

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Aug 4, 2014
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The thing with OCF is that it favours models which have previously performed well in that region, problem is... not all models have the topography resolution of each other. Use it to weigh falls against EC/AXS-R and you'll find it pretty freaking accurate.
Yep that's exactly what I use it for - a sense check on EC numbers and a guide on where in the BOM human-moderated forecast precip range (which I assume is based on AXSR) it's likely to land. Between the three you can get a pretty good idea.

Always assumed it was something to do with orographic effects, because OCF tends to be spot on for easier areas to forecast e.g. Canberra.
 
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steeps

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May 8, 2006
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I'm a proud New South Welshman
Hey All!
I’ve been on a holiday in the Fiji islands. Sorry!
This is the 60-80cm dump of snow I was talking about. A week ago, an small occluded front passed about 300nm south of Tasmania. This has catapulted a series of cold fronts our way over the next few days. Next week looks good too! There should be more cold fronts on their way. There were those who cast doubt among my forecasts. I do use a different method but I find it is typically pretty accurate.

See you in the powder this weekend. I’ll be at Buller.

Goto
I believe your method model is Albino Whale influenced more than occluded fronts ?
 

Reetro

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Sep 7, 2017
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Hey All!
I’ve been on a holiday in the Fiji islands. Sorry!
This is the 60-80cm dump of snow I was talking about. A week ago, an small occluded front passed about 300nm south of Tasmania. This has catapulted a series of cold fronts our way over the next few days. Next week looks good too! There should be more cold fronts on their way. There were those who cast doubt among my forecasts. I do use a different method but I find it is typically pretty accurate.

See you in the powder this weekend. I’ll be at Buller.

Goto
Can you go back to FIJI?????
 
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