Predictions 10th-15th July - The Long Shot

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 30, 2019.

  1. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    I kind of remember that had to do with a volcano as well..
     
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  2. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Similar to 90 and 91 sans volcano
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-R is burying cars on the latest run.
    Thursday 10pm

    Friday 10pm
     
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  4. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    West as bro
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hotham & The Main Range tips it's hat.

    AXS-C settling on 30-40cm for today/ tomorrow (until 10am Thurs).
     
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  6. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thredbo 1800m

     
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  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    phoar......
     
  8. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can’t read the scale, but isn’t there red there, ie 60-80..?
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    50-60* in the Buller region.
    *Varied precip.
     
  10. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    #wintrymix #stayontopic
     
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  11. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    When i look at the 48hr and 72hr AXS R Charts

    I see red
    I see red
    I see red

     
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  12. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us

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    Looks like a BIG “skid mark” from the SW...
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    FIFY
     
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  14. Arsas

    Arsas One of Us

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    Has their been a reduction in winds in this mornings update for NSW? Was checking Meteye 5 mins ago and it only shows 70+km/h Sunday night around the resorts, pretty sure yesterday it was 70+km/h later Saturday and Sunday and hanging round longer.
    Also looking at Meteye the high winds look to be only at the higher elevations(resorts). Am I reading this right?
    Very interested as I'm camping at Sawpit (1200m) Saturday to Wednesday.
     
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    35-45 knots @ ~1550m exposed reaches on Friday PM.
    [​IMG]
     
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  16. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    Sky Weather calling for snow down to 700m on Saturday. Guessing this would be mostly VIC. Thoughts for NSW? Berridale to Jindy might be in trouble around Avonside on Saturday morning...
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Updated SWW covers most of Victoria now, Melbourne included and much more of NSW.


     
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  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That'll do pig.
    Troughy train tracks
    warm front included.
     
  19. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice big blob of moisture with warm front /front just enterig the bight.
     
  20. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict I will have trouble persuading my boys to go out and ski in the blizzard this weekend. I predict they will be persuaded and observations will be reported in the appropriate thread. I also predict we will be using the hated Skitube at Perisher to avoid road carnage. Now back on topic ….
     
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  21. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Looking for some road weather forecasts.

    Tomorrow Thursday morning.
    I'm approaching from the west.
    I'm aiming to get to jindabyne by 11am tomorrow.

    I always go via the alpine way from khancoban. I'm used to using chains every now and then. But I've got a funny feeling that I should probably go via Wagga and snowy mountains highway.

    I'm keen for the challenge via alpine way or would there be a huge risk this time?

    Cheers
     
  22. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    #MINT
     
  23. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    @Adelaidometer I think you should go around the long way in all seriousness as seen in this graph the bulk of snow comes early hours on Thursday. Safe travels whatever you do choose.

    [​IMG]
     
  24. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Piggy
     
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  26. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS R is all of it.
     
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  27. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Slow and steady wins the race - if going the alpine. the 'risk' is road closures. long way round if you get stuck at one.
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A ball tearer for the MR in general.
     
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  29. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us

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    Thanks POW slowly building my meteorology terminology so I can hang with the big guys... joking aside...just love these forums...the flow of data from some very knowledgeable members, is intriguing and is slowly making sense. And when it is tied to an event we all salivate for, double the enjoyment‼️
     
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  30. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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  31. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Season starter ....
     
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  32. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Bom slowly dropping snow level for southern vic, now sitting at 600m for later Friday through to Saturday morning.
    Latest updates on gfs and accessr look really good with a very cold fetch and 528 thickness chugging towards the vic coast later Friday. IMO
    If the charts hold similar to what they are now then I think we could possibly see flurries in the core of heavier showers maybe to 400m? IMO
     
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  33. Telestrom

    Telestrom A Local

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    Holy BOM upgrade, Batman!

     
  34. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Addicted

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  35. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  36. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler Hard Yards

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    Not often do you see an entire ten-day consecutive streak of snowfall at 36° S in Australia...I have never seen such persistently snowy conditions in my life here (July 1965 was a strong contender, but don't recall it being this persistent). The forecast looks more akin to a typical Southern Hemisphere climate at 46° S, not 36° S—remember, I'm merely elevated by 1,290 m AMSL:

    [​IMG]

    Bloody oath, I'm lovin' it! My #No.1 snowiest forecast that I've ever laid gaze upon. The first flakes of snow should arrive in a matter of hours from now...wind's howling fiercely from the South-West.
     
  37. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    4ft storm maybe?
     
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  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid based on hourly data.
     
  39. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    Didn't hear much talk about rising snowlines until this arvo's forecast. I can see why on the charts, but any chance i won't happen?

     
  40. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    TM
     
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  41. TheFake

    TheFake One of Us

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    What do you folk reckon about Buller's chances Friday? Janes EC dump estimates temps heading above 0C at 1600m. Gets cold pretty quickly later, but a fair chuck of the moisture seems to precede the drop.
     
  42. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Photos please, when it arrives. Love me a non-resort snowscape
     
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I would anticipate having to possibly wait until after midday for it to change from liquid to goodness.- based on EC Rapid hourly data but perhaps eventual temp may be slightly better.
     
  44. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler Hard Yards

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    I'll wait 'til about Saturday or later for the best snow depth/conditions, then I'll take some photos.
     
  45. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    NSW BOM now lowering to 700 M for CTs on Saturday
     
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  46. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some rain/mix below 1500-1600m.

    Still a solid 50cm in general all up IMO. Maybe more for top. TBH I'm thinking less about low level Buller and more about Summit/Howqua/Burnt Hut/maybe more...
     
  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It'll be like 5-10mm below 1600m. 30-40cm before it, 40-50cm after it with more on Monday onwards.

    It's not an awful forecast if you look at the big picture here.
     
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  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah on GFS the snowline is 1642 metres at its highest
     
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