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Predictions 10th-15th July - The Long Shot

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 30, 2019.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    You still see 60-80cm in the Thredbo Village.
    1 metre up top.
    A bit of rain in amongst that ain't the end of the world.
    Better than Buller, lel.
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fizzer.
     
  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS - There is good Vertical Velocity throughout most but not all of the forecast period. In the mix is also some snippets of divergence at low levels so indicating discontinuous snowfall. A few details are still making me think ( from a GFS point of view) that there may be still a slight downgrade- imo.
     
  4. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yes, I'm tiring of all these predictions about snow -Monday=nudda, Tuesday=nudda, Wed=pretend/sorta so what makes everyone think tomoz is going to deliver??? You guys have worked me up to such a snow frenzy that I was walking around camp at 4:30am due to pent up snow flurry anxiety. Will TOMORROW be any different? Fizzer? Well its blowing that hard here in Island Bend atm any snow will be blown to New Zealand.
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was joking, but I think you got that bit.

    25-40cm tomorrow for Perisher/Thredbo.
    The figures for EC (00z) in the next 72 hours are staggering but one day at a time, I agree.
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    did you miss June
     
  8. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS shows Friday through the middle of the day could be a bit soggy. Hopefully not to high up. The low end on the current precip ranges is probably closer to the final outcome. They are still solid numbers - but there hasn't been any significant precip in the mountains for months beyond intense short events . The season starter comes out well in front over recent months. Maybe we get lucky this time and get snowed in.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-C progged rainfall for 10pm tonight to 10pm tomorrow.
    #Basebuilder
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A show of hands please. Is Everyone prepared for some rain Friday below 1600m??
    It's always been there.
     
  11. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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  12. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    Not sure road carnage will be avoided with snow levels down to Bullocks on Saturday. Alpine way will be nasty.
     
  13. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmm and there i was thinking of a buller day trip powder chase.........porridge chase?
     
  14. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think a accident on both roads is assured.
    Timing of the coldest air is weetbix hour
     
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  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Which is base building material. Saturday will be pretty good at Buller though, after a decent swab of snow including down low. And the Summit should be stacked enough for opening over the weekend.

    It’s no secret it will be better at the other major resorts, but it’s not going to be that bad, still a decent net gain.
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic. Weather predictions only.
     
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  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    80-100cm at Perisher in 24 hours.... not very realistic IMO. AXS showing it’s bias here.
     
  18. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Let's hope the SL doesn't creep up into the Valley above 1700m too much. Plenty of times it's been wet snow at best all day at Perisher in one of these events.
     
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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is pushing sustained Divergence @ 700hPa atm on Friday . Perhaps i worry too much but its an important Parameter for DGZ and we are getting closer to the event. Still a few nerves to settle imo.
     
  20. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    looks to be solid drop in the AAO - at least the door is wide open for coming week.

    [​IMG]
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, it's a little concerning given the timing (diurnal high), but the progs give it a chance with an easing trend of precip until the follow-up front.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    FIFY ;)
     
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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don’t think Perisher is the place to be worrying about. IMO.
     
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  24. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ridges are fluid AF whilst the sub polar jet has the right of way over the next week or two.
    If it was May/June I'd be worried.
    Besides a period of subsidence is ALWAYS good after 72 hours of snowfall.
     
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  26. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    Predictions for LM and BB please ....
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That said, some here will be crying over spilt milk when it doesn't snow for 10 days solid like some have claimed.
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    20-30cm over the next 3 days, I'd say.
    Expect snow down to 1500m, rain below on Friday IMO.
     
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  29. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    10 days in a month is a win in oz
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    My point is, it won't happen.
     
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  31. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Just ski Jacko.. Got some meters in you yet. Let it snow. Dont stand still.
     
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  32. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict that I am going to be very happy at Thredbo this weekend regardless. Weekend of the season so far. If we can get anywhere near the 70cm mark over 3 days above 1500 I’d take that any day of the week.

    Just enjoy what we get...like I have done on my 3 trips down this season so far.
     
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  33. zac150

    zac150 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    You will have to poach runs as most of the resort won’t open till next week. It will take some time for ski patrol to open runs
     
  34. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Agree on runs being open...I know where to find the good stuff but just incase I am going next weekend as well

    We will go for a Trek if the wind and visibility permits.

    Is it still going to be brutal wind Saturday afternoon and Sunday? Hoping to go for a walk up past eagles nest?
     
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  35. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Friday daytime looks dog. Ponchos in the porridge. Hopefully just a blimp before temps drop later in the early evening. Sunday night looks to be the real season saver that gets most of Perisher finally open. Though it will take the usual X days to get the work done. Luckily most of the resort has been ready since the beginning of June for a resort wide opening dump to come through.
     
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  36. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

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    We're heading to Thredbo for 8 days from Monday (yay, good timing), is it worth getting there early (mostly so the kids can get some arvo practice before racing/ lessons etc)? Looking windy Monday arvo?
     
  37. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Going to busy as all hell at Thredbo next week as it’s your turn to get the dreaded interschool invasion. At least there will be more open that what we have endured this week at Perisher. FOIS
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic. Weather predictions only.
     
  39. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

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    yeah, esp with the snow predictions on top.
     
  40. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    AXSR looks grand for friday night for the Northern resorts and NSW
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Haven’t seen OCF totals in this range during ski season for quite a while.
     
  42. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Gfs arvo update I’ll just say minty imo
     
  43. Pulsing weather till the weekend thinks ec. Can catch you off guard.

    9-km ECMWF Global Pressure Australia & NZ 500 hPa Height Anom.gif

     
  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whos in the mood for an EC upgrade ? EC Rapid has a few cents less up until 14th but lets not haggle.
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Crack that tonne aye!
     
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  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There are some very saturated Mixing ratios for NSW resorts tomorow night. The EC midnight plot is a doozy.
     
  47. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I see the 528 line taking a chunk of southern tassie on Saturday.....
     
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  48. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Yep on gfs this arvo the 528 line pretty much touches the vic coast which I think is an upgrade from the previous day or so. Snow to around 600m with potential flurries to 400m for south vic areas imo
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I note BoM has Thredbo Perisher in the 20-50mm range, down from the 40-60mm in yesterday's.
    I think they were punched well above their weight with 40-60mm yesterday.
     
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  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mt Buller- The Meteologix Essentials ( EC Rapid ) Charts/ Meteograms have 20 mm of clear 6am - 5 30 ish pm tomorow before the goodness arrives.