Predictions 10th-15th July - The Long Shot

Kletterer

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GFS - There is good Vertical Velocity throughout most but not all of the forecast period. In the mix is also some snippets of divergence at low levels so indicating discontinuous snowfall. A few details are still making me think ( from a GFS point of view) that there may be still a slight downgrade- imo.
 

Jacko4650

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Yes, I'm tiring of all these predictions about snow -Monday=nudda, Tuesday=nudda, Wed=pretend/sorta so what makes everyone think tomoz is going to deliver??? You guys have worked me up to such a snow frenzy that I was walking around camp at 4:30am due to pent up snow flurry anxiety. Will TOMORROW be any different? Fizzer? Well its blowing that hard here in Island Bend atm any snow will be blown to New Zealand.
 

POW Hungry

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Yes, I'm tiring of all these predictions about snow -Monday=nudda, Tuesday=nudda, Wed=pretend/sorta so what makes everyone think tomoz is going to deliver??? You guys have worked me up to such a snow frenzy that I was walking around camp at 4:30am due to pent up snow flurry anxiety. Will TOMORROW be any different? Fizzer? Well its blowing that hard here in Island Bend atm any snow will be blown to New Zealand.
I was joking, but I think you got that bit.

25-40cm tomorrow for Perisher/Thredbo.
The figures for EC (00z) in the next 72 hours are staggering but one day at a time, I agree.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Peri Village
Screen Shot 2019-07-10 at 6.37.52 pm.png
 

rocketboy

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GFS shows Friday through the middle of the day could be a bit soggy. Hopefully not to high up. The low end on the current precip ranges is probably closer to the final outcome. They are still solid numbers - but there hasn't been any significant precip in the mountains for months beyond intense short events . The season starter comes out well in front over recent months. Maybe we get lucky this time and get snowed in.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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GFS shows Friday through the middle of the day could be a bit soggy. Hopefully not to high up. The low end on the current precip ranges is probably closer to the final outcome. They are still solid numbers - but there hasn't been any significant precip in the mountains for months beyond intense short events . The season starter comes out well in front over recent months. Maybe we get lucky this time and get snowed in.
A show of hands please. Is Everyone prepared for some rain Friday below 1600m??
It's always been there.
 
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PowWow

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I predict I will have trouble persuading my boys to go out and ski in the blizzard this weekend. I predict they will be persuaded and observations will be reported in the appropriate thread. I also predict we will be using the hated Skitube at Perisher to avoid road carnage. Now back on topic ….
Not sure road carnage will be avoided with snow levels down to Bullocks on Saturday. Alpine way will be nasty.
 

Jellybeans

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Hmmm and there i was thinking of a buller day trip powder chase.........porridge chase?
Which is base building material. Saturday will be pretty good at Buller though, after a decent swab of snow including down low. And the Summit should be stacked enough for opening over the weekend.

It’s no secret it will be better at the other major resorts, but it’s not going to be that bad, still a decent net gain.
 
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rocketboy

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A show of hands please. Is Everyone prepared for some rain Friday below 1600m??
It's always been there.

Let's hope the SL doesn't creep up into the Valley above 1700m too much. Plenty of times it's been wet snow at best all day at Perisher in one of these events.
 
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Kletterer

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GFS is pushing sustained Divergence @ 700hPa atm on Friday . Perhaps i worry too much but its an important Parameter for DGZ and we are getting closer to the event. Still a few nerves to settle imo.
 

POW Hungry

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Let's hope the SL doesn't creep up into the Valley above 1700m too much. Plenty of times it's been wet snow at best all day at Perisher in one of these events.
Yeah, it's a little concerning given the timing (diurnal high), but the progs give it a chance with an easing trend of precip until the follow-up front.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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ACC g..I am a bit concerned about the big high pressure system coming in late saturday in from the west.
friday night looks ok for troughing . Bit this High barging in might be a worry.
I must admit l haven't looked in detail but feeling uneasy about what l saw tonight
whilst browsing
http://www.bom.gov.au/charts_data/IDY20001/current/mslp-thick/IDY20001.mslp-thick.072.png
Ridges are fluid AF whilst the sub polar jet has the right of way over the next week or two.
If it was May/June I'd be worried.
Besides a period of subsidence is ALWAYS good after 72 hours of snowfall.
 
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POW Hungry

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Ridges are fluid AF whilst the sub polar jet has the right of way over the next week or two.
If it was May/June I'd be worried.
Besides a period of subsidence is ALWAYS good after 72 hours of snowfall.
That said, some here will be crying over spilt milk when it doesn't snow for 10 days solid like some have claimed.
 

Reetro

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Yes, I'm tiring of all these predictions about snow -Monday=nudda, Tuesday=nudda, Wed=pretend/sorta so what makes everyone think tomoz is going to deliver??? You guys have worked me up to such a snow frenzy that I was walking around camp at 4:30am due to pent up snow flurry anxiety. Will TOMORROW be any different? Fizzer? Well its blowing that hard here in Island Bend atm any snow will be blown to New Zealand.
Just ski Jacko.. Got some meters in you yet. Let it snow. Dont stand still.
 

bondibob

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I predict that I am going to be very happy at Thredbo this weekend regardless. Weekend of the season so far. If we can get anywhere near the 70cm mark over 3 days above 1500 I’d take that any day of the week.

Just enjoy what we get...like I have done on my 3 trips down this season so far.
 

Telezacski

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I predict that I am going to be very happy at Thredbo this weekend regardless. Weekend of the season so far. If we can get anywhere near the 70cm mark over 3 days above 1500 I’d take that any day of the week.

Just enjoy what we get...like I have done on my 3 trips down this season so far.

You will have to poach runs as most of the resort won’t open till next week. It will take some time for ski patrol to open runs
 

bondibob

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You will have to poach runs as most of the resort won’t open till next week. It will take some time for ski patrol to open runs
Agree on runs being open...I know where to find the good stuff but just incase I am going next weekend as well

We will go for a Trek if the wind and visibility permits.

Is it still going to be brutal wind Saturday afternoon and Sunday? Hoping to go for a walk up past eagles nest?
 
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rocketboy

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Friday daytime looks dog. Ponchos in the porridge. Hopefully just a blimp before temps drop later in the early evening. Sunday night looks to be the real season saver that gets most of Perisher finally open. Though it will take the usual X days to get the work done. Luckily most of the resort has been ready since the beginning of June for a resort wide opening dump to come through.
 

Adricat

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We're heading to Thredbo for 8 days from Monday (yay, good timing), is it worth getting there early (mostly so the kids can get some arvo practice before racing/ lessons etc)? Looking windy Monday arvo?
 

rocketboy

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We're heading to Thredbo for 8 days from Monday (yay, good timing), is it worth getting there early (mostly so the kids can get some arvo practice before racing/ lessons etc)? Looking windy Monday arvo?

Going to busy as all hell at Thredbo next week as it’s your turn to get the dreaded interschool invasion. At least there will be more open that what we have endured this week at Perisher. FOIS
 
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Adricat

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Going to busy as all hell at Thredbo next week as it’s your turn to get the dreaded interschool invasion. At least there will be more open that what we have endured this week at Perisher. FOIS
yeah, esp with the snow predictions on top.
 

Kletterer

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Mt Buller- The Meteologix Essentials ( EC Rapid ) Charts/ Meteograms have 20 mm of clear 6am - 5 30 ish pm tomorow before the goodness arrives.
 
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