Predictions 10th-15th July - The Long Shot

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 30, 2019.

  1. Hot Diggity

    Hot Diggity Hard Yards

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    I predict traffic on these forums might hit an all time high in this period. Still Lurking. Lurking like a mother lurker. Thanks for all contributors of the past and welcome to all of the new from WZ. It has been a little crazy to navigate the last few weeks but I predict it will become very normal. I didn't predict my orchids would be so late flowering (Melbourne inner) but this has been the way over at least the last 3 winters. Stay on t(r)opic

    Edit. First bloom today
     
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  2. teleroo

    teleroo One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Any BOM types out there able to help decipher the Selwyn forecast for Friday? Lots of precip indicated, warm temps apparently but also snow above 1000 m?? Normally snow above 1000m gets the snowflake symbol.

     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The drop in snow level isn't progged to eventuate until late evening/early Morning (Sat), rain until then.
    I presume BoM's gone with rain here as it's by and large... RAIN for Selwyn tomorrow.
     
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  4. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like there's now apx 26 hours of marginal temps until about 10pm tmw. GFS shows some colder air at times over NSW before then.

    Hopefully we don't go too far above zero.

    It's almost a redux to the season starter 6 weeks ago of mega wet snow.

    Sunday night has really cold temps with some reasonable precip so could be DOTS on Monday morning.
     
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  5. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    At something like 4 X the size of Thredbo, Perisher probs has more terrain open right now than all of Thredbo when its on. Just has more peeps :)
     
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  6. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Straw always good. 2.1c and steady at the high perch ,blooming windy though but not currently raining
     
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  7. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    ^^^ Obs thread.
     
  8. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM now saying 40-75mm today for Perisher.
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ha! And bumped Thredbo back up to 40-70mm too. Interesting.
     
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  10. JG

    JG Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Is the Norwest moisture feed that has caused the BOM to be so bold?
    Will that reach the alps within 24 hours?
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Cloud over WA won’t make it. It goes due East through Northern NSW and QLD.

    A lot of what you’re pointing to (under your arrow) will slide South of the Alps and through Bass Strait. I wouldn’t really call it a NW’ly feed. More Westerly with upper level jet influence.

    The above is a rough indication of what’s on our plate as far as the alps are concerned. The yellow is the next 12-14 hours and the red is building frontal band and trough for tonight and into tomorrow AM (still undergoing frontogensis).
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Note AXS-R progged arrival of cold air 8-9pm for Vic, circa 10pm/11pm for NSW tonight.
     
  13. JG

    JG Hard Yards Ski Pass: Silver

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    Thanks for the clarification POW
     
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  14. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Nice red splodge
     
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  15. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    yeah I know ,sorry to those who wish it
     
  16. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    Seems to be a downgrade in precip totals for the next few days from what was progged yesterday.

    Anyone agree?
     
  17. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Depends which model you favoured, but AXS-R was throwing up some pretty out there numbers for today which we're yet to see much of (until tonight).
    Wed-Sat was owed in the vicinity of 40-70mm IMO so I think it's still lrgely on track, but I'd agree in saying it's highly dependent on what model you were inclined to side with.
     
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  19. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS looks lame at this point. Cold air appears delayed until midnight. Not much juice left after that.

    At least it's just drizzle so far today at 12mm.

    BOM update will be an interesting read in a few mins.
     
  20. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I was looking more at YR/NO, Weatherzone forecasts for Buller. Seem to have downgraded moisture levels somewhat, but it is swings and roundabouts with these automated forcasts I suppose.

    My mood swings at each update :doh:
     
  21. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Going to be wild tonight, heap of wind and plenty of very cold air to push through southern vic overnight and Tommoz morning imo
    Gfs still showing 528 thickness brushing vic Coast Tommoz morning
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, I have to agree EC was quite bullish.
    But I think we'll still see at least a foot by the morning across major resorts.
     
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  23. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunday night looks great on GFS - cold and plenty of juice from what I can see here on nullschool for Sunday night.
     
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  24. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  26. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us

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    Prediction - 15 20cms from here till 000monday NSW and northern Vic , southern Vic a little less 10 -15 cms
     
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  27. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Disappointed with the results last night and today. I thought the extensive 532 thickness would be enough.
    This was clearly an example where that parameter alone is unreliable.
    So upper layer not supportive last night and today?
    Thought the cloud looked a bit dull and non convective last night.
    This incoming definitely showing convective cloud ..
    Amazing that the sounding caught models out by 1.5 deg. That could make or break .
     
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  28. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Tonight and Tommoz morning is where we’ll see the good thickness Crikey and some good low snowfall imo
    It’s all set to hit the south east corner big time
     
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  29. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ha... Thanks. I thought today was ...saturday....whoops..:oops:
    One of the problems with retiring.Day and time sometimes becomes irrelevant.
    phew.
    Yes. I see the 532 thickness for ..,Saturday.,It was only 544 for 10am today over the alps.
     
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  30. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    All looks good from here on. cold air is here, looks to be plenty of moisture left - enjoy a classic Saturday day of chaos on Kosi road.
     
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  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sunday night into Monday looks to be the snow fall of the season. Super cold and plenty of juice.
     
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  33. Yosh

    Yosh First Runs

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    Hey guys. My family of 2 school aged children and I are planning our first trip ever to see the snow tomorrow to lake mountain. We have no idea what to expect, especially with the weather. Can anyone please tell me is it worth taking them tomorrow with the weather forecast as it is atm?
     
  34. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us

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    Looks like it may be a mixture of snow and that other stuff... but you know what? If you did it, take a change of clothes, have fun and my further prediction is that you and family will experience a very special event in seeing why so many families are drawn to our fabulous mountains, and it doesn’t have to be a bluebird day for that.
     
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  35. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    The Toboggan Run at Lake Mtn. will be operating. They have a snow making machine there for snow ball throwers to play on/slide on.
    As to whether there is any chance of even marginal Cross Country skiing at Lake Mtn. Tomorrow July 14 th 2019 , well I can't say just now. I am interested in XC skiing there tomorrow but the snow may not be sufficient for such an excursion.
     
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid ending 10 am Sunday.
     
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  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And the following 24 hours
     
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  38. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    What is that to the west of Tasmania and where is it going?
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This trough? It’ll be a direct hit on Tas by day break.
     
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  40. Slovenski

    Slovenski One of Us

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    Was gona say the same thing but beat me to it.
     
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  41. samtheman

    samtheman Hard Yards

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    I just left Hotham today... are you telling me I need to turn around and get back up there? :)
    Which VIC resort would be your pick for Monday?
     
  42. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    IDK. - maybe Lake Mountain. You’d think they’d get lucky at least once this season
     
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  43. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    ViC BOM have issued a SWW for coastal and alpine regions today.

    DAMAGING WINDS are also expected across the Grampians and eastern ranges, with peak gusts of 100-110km/h possible across the Alpine peaks (above 1500 metres).

    BLIZZARD conditions are likely over Alpine areas with heavy snowfalls, particularly during the late afternoon and evening.

    Winds are expected to ease below warning threshold during the early hours of Monday.
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon Baw Baw could see the prettier side of 20 cents this arvo IMO.
     
  45. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    not so sure.. I think the sea west of Tassie has some secrets yet
     
  46. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    They closing the lifts at Hotham.
    It’s pretty brutal up here.
    Road closed from H way.
    Apparently a bus has gone off and blocking the road.
    Omeo way home for us shortly.
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not really surprised with winds near 100 kph.
     
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  48. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    yr.no has snow this arvo and tonight on eastern ranges. is this likely or just model artifacts?
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It'll get there.
    All the resorts still under Northerly influence.
    That SW'ly shift later this arvo will turn on that moisture tap IMO.
    The shift is in Western & Central Vic, yet.
     
  50. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    my mistake was specifically refering to the coastal ranges and Badja etc. yr.no just shows a few flurries but maybe more?
     
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