Predictions 10th-15th July - The Long Shot

Hot Diggity

Hard Yards
May 2, 2014
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I predict traffic on these forums might hit an all time high in this period. Still Lurking. Lurking like a mother lurker. Thanks for all contributors of the past and welcome to all of the new from WZ. It has been a little crazy to navigate the last few weeks but I predict it will become very normal. I didn't predict my orchids would be so late flowering (Melbourne inner) but this has been the way over at least the last 3 winters. Stay on t(r)opic

Edit. First bloom today
 

teleroo

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Jun 19, 2019
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Any BOM types out there able to help decipher the Selwyn forecast for Friday? Lots of precip indicated, warm temps apparently but also snow above 1000 m?? Normally snow above 1000m gets the snowflake symbol.

Screenshot_20190711-190158~2.png
 

POW Hungry

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Any BOM types out there able to help decipher the Selwyn forecast for Friday? Lots of precip indicated, warm temps apparently but also snow above 1000 m?? Normally snow above 1000m gets the snowflake symbol.

Screenshot_20190711-190158~2.png
The drop in snow level isn't progged to eventuate until late evening/early Morning (Sat), rain until then.
I presume BoM's gone with rain here as it's by and large... RAIN for Selwyn tomorrow.
 

rocketboy

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Looks like there's now apx 26 hours of marginal temps until about 10pm tmw. GFS shows some colder air at times over NSW before then.

Hopefully we don't go too far above zero.

It's almost a redux to the season starter 6 weeks ago of mega wet snow.

Sunday night has really cold temps with some reasonable precip so could be DOTS on Monday morning.
 
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Nidecker

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Going to busy as all hell at Thredbo next week as it’s your turn to get the dreaded interschool invasion. At least there will be more open that what we have endured this week at Perisher. FOIS

At something like 4 X the size of Thredbo, Perisher probs has more terrain open right now than all of Thredbo when its on. Just has more peeps :)
 
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JG

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6DBBE3B3-71A2-4BFB-8A73-E2807A2C24A6.jpeg

Is the Norwest moisture feed that has caused the BOM to be so bold?
Will that reach the alps within 24 hours?
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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6DBBE3B3-71A2-4BFB-8A73-E2807A2C24A6.jpeg

Is the Norwest moisture feed that has caused the BOM to be so bold?
Will that reach the alps within 24 hours?
The Cloud over WA won’t make it. It goes due East through Northern NSW and QLD.

A lot of what you’re pointing to (under your arrow) will slide South of the Alps and through Bass Strait. I wouldn’t really call it a NW’ly feed. More Westerly with upper level jet influence.
5FC644EE-4F65-4E12-94B5-6AF05D052464.jpeg

The above is a rough indication of what’s on our plate as far as the alps are concerned. The yellow is the next 12-14 hours and the red is building frontal band and trough for tonight and into tomorrow AM (still undergoing frontogensis).
 

JG

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The Cloud over WA won’t make it. It goes due East through Northern NSW and QLD.

A lot of what you’re pointing to (under your arrow) will slide South of the Alps and through Bass Strait. I wouldn’t really call it a NW’ly feed. More Westerly with upper level jet influence.
5FC644EE-4F65-4E12-94B5-6AF05D052464.jpeg

The above is a rough indication of what’s on our plate as far as the alps are concerned. The yellow is the next 12-14 hours and the red is building frontal band and trough for tonight and into tomorrow AM (still undergoing frontogensis).
Thanks for the clarification POW
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Seems to be a downgrade in precip totals for the next few days from what was progged yesterday.

Anyone agree?
Depends which model you favoured, but AXS-R was throwing up some pretty out there numbers for today which we're yet to see much of (until tonight).
Wed-Sat was owed in the vicinity of 40-70mm IMO so I think it's still lrgely on track, but I'd agree in saying it's highly dependent on what model you were inclined to side with.
 
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rocketboy

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GFS looks lame at this point. Cold air appears delayed until midnight. Not much juice left after that.

At least it's just drizzle so far today at 12mm.

BOM update will be an interesting read in a few mins.
 

MickM

A Local
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Depends which model you favoured, but AXS-R was throwing up some pretty out there numbers for today which we're yet to see much of (until tonight).
Wed-Sat was owed in the vicinity of 40-70mm IMO so I think it's still lrgely on track, but I'd agree in saying it's highly dependent on what model you were inclined to side with.
I was looking more at YR/NO, Weatherzone forecasts for Buller. Seem to have downgraded moisture levels somewhat, but it is swings and roundabouts with these automated forcasts I suppose.

My mood swings at each update :doh:
 

doogasnow

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Going to be wild tonight, heap of wind and plenty of very cold air to push through southern vic overnight and Tommoz morning imo
Gfs still showing 528 thickness brushing vic Coast Tommoz morning
 

POW Hungry

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I was looking more at YR/NO, Weatherzone forecasts for Buller. Seem to have downgraded moisture levels somewhat, but it is swings and roundabouts with these automated forcasts I suppose.

My mood swings at each update :doh:
Yep, I have to agree EC was quite bullish.
But I think we'll still see at least a foot by the morning across major resorts.
 
Disappointed with the results last night and today. I thought the extensive 532 thickness would be enough.
This was clearly an example where that parameter alone is unreliable.
So upper layer not supportive last night and today?
Thought the cloud looked a bit dull and non convective last night.
This incoming definitely showing convective cloud ..
Amazing that the sounding caught models out by 1.5 deg. That could make or break .
 
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doogasnow

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Disappointed with the results last night and today. I thought the extensive 532 thickness would be enough.
This was clearly an example where that parameter alone is unreliable.
So upper layer not supportive last night and today?
Thought the cloud looked a bit dull and non convective last night.
This incoming definitely showing convective cloud ..
Amazing that the sounding caught models out by 1.5 deg. That could make or break .

Tonight and Tommoz morning is where we’ll see the good thickness Crikey and some good low snowfall imo
It’s all set to hit the south east corner big time
 
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Tonight and Tommoz morning is where we’ll see the good thickness Crikey and some good low snowfall imo
It’s all set to hit the south east corner big time
Ha... Thanks. I thought today was ...saturday....whoops..:oops:
One of the problems with retiring.Day and time sometimes becomes irrelevant.
phew.
Yes. I see the 532 thickness for ..,Saturday.,It was only 544 for 10am today over the alps.
 
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Yosh

First Runs
Jul 13, 2019
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Hey guys. My family of 2 school aged children and I are planning our first trip ever to see the snow tomorrow to lake mountain. We have no idea what to expect, especially with the weather. Can anyone please tell me is it worth taking them tomorrow with the weather forecast as it is atm?
 

Rat trap bindings

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Hey guys. My family of 2 school aged children and I are planning our first trip ever to see the snow tomorrow to lake mountain. We have no idea what to expect, especially with the weather. Can anyone please tell me is it worth taking them tomorrow with the weather forecast as it is atm?
Looks like it may be a mixture of snow and that other stuff... but you know what? If you did it, take a change of clothes, have fun and my further prediction is that you and family will experience a very special event in seeing why so many families are drawn to our fabulous mountains, and it doesn’t have to be a bluebird day for that.
 
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Mister Tee on XC Skis

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Hey guys. My family of 2 school aged children and I are planning our first trip ever to see the snow tomorrow to lake mountain. We have no idea what to expect, especially with the weather. Can anyone please tell me is it worth taking them tomorrow with the weather forecast as it is atm?
The Toboggan Run at Lake Mtn. will be operating. They have a snow making machine there for snow ball throwers to play on/slide on.
As to whether there is any chance of even marginal Cross Country skiing at Lake Mtn. Tomorrow July 14 th 2019 , well I can't say just now. I am interested in XC skiing there tomorrow but the snow may not be sufficient for such an excursion.
 

samtheman

Hard Yards
Jun 27, 2007
29
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Sunday night into Monday looks to be the snow fall of the season. Super cold and plenty of juice.

I just left Hotham today... are you telling me I need to turn around and get back up there? :)
Which VIC resort would be your pick for Monday?
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
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ViC BOM have issued a SWW for coastal and alpine regions today.

DAMAGING WINDS are also expected across the Grampians and eastern ranges, with peak gusts of 100-110km/h possible across the Alpine peaks (above 1500 metres).

BLIZZARD conditions are likely over Alpine areas with heavy snowfalls, particularly during the late afternoon and evening.

Winds are expected to ease below warning threshold during the early hours of Monday.
 

rocketboy

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It'll get there.
All the resorts still under Northerly influence.
That SW'ly shift later this arvo will turn on that moisture tap IMO.
The shift is in Western & Central Vic, yet.
2019-07-14_14-31-42.png

my mistake was specifically refering to the coastal ranges and Badja etc. yr.no just shows a few flurries but maybe more?
 
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