Predictions 10th-15th July - The Long Shot

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 30, 2019.

  1. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Do you mean this?
    https://www.weatherzone.com.au/snow/
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What are your thoughts on EC being the outlier here?
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Canuck wants a ULL cut-off over the NW... Which I'd like to discount as 'off it's head'.
     
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  4. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC direct output.
     
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  6. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    We know GFS is going through the terrible twos and has started to believe in fairytales of late

    The Canuck, for mine, has always only been a check model for our parts and by somehow manufacturing a cut off cold pool in northern WA ain’t really helping it’s credibility.

    EC has been by far the most reliable for some time and has tended to be less likely to conjure mythical horned horses. From memory it picked our season mid-starter a long way out....

    AXSG is really just EC a run or so behind ;)

    At this stage, I’m favouring the EC, albeit with some cynicism as to the extremes
     
  7. What are your thoughts on EC being the outlier here?

    Tell you what i thnk next monday nght after veiwing many
    more ens and deterministic runs. I would like to see some
    consenus in the models over the week.

    Some ec fans are like cult members. lol.
    All those ens plots had a ull off the nw, but yeah cmc looking v/bullish.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Same. It's the only piece of the puzzle missing at this point.
     
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  9. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    That’s more like it
     
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  10. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That's the main thing I noticed as per my earlier post. Cold air looks fine but the moisture feed is just unusual given the numbers. I'm not an old-timer though so maybe it's not so odd.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Inevitable that GFS follows suit.
     
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  12. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Yep. Still there. Some alignment might help. Even if it and EC met in the the middle it would still be great
     
  13. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Juicy precipitation rates for VIC.

     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wanna know why GFS proggs the anti-cyclone at 1044hPa central pressure? Refer to the Polar V chat in the BBQ thread. Wouldn't be surprised if thing goes north of 1044 in our hemi, as a result.

    I think we can expect strong anoms such as this over the next couple of weeks IMO.
     
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  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just like EC....
     
  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well EC is better
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow in strange places on GFS 06z. It's tourettic AF.
    Best stick to the ensembles.
     
  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was talking about the trend
     
  19. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    https://www.weatherzone.com.au/snow/

    This forecast is at variance with that of Ms. Bunn. Her forecast looks like what we all want , which is a big snowfall on Friday July 12th.In approximately a week we may be able to bring out the table of forecasts and compare them.
     
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  20. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I suspect one is simply gfs extrapolated and the other EC - without either having any human overlay.

    Jane’s personal forecast does not yet extend beyond next Wednesday and I think it’s fair to say she sees the chance of something building but is a long way from going to print and backing it (who would 10 days out!!)

    Even the 3 day numbers (in the 3-7-10) are OCF Iirc
     
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  21. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    We live in hope of putting the rock hoppers away and skiing on the good planks soon.3 days out from a proper snowfall is the best we can ascertain things sensibly and even that is still a matter of conjecture.
     
  22. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. That’ll do.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Scaled back on the depth of the cold air on the 12Z run but EC continues to look great this AM.

    GFS and The Canuck’s trend is aligning but still a bit to go yet. Should be locked in by the weekend IMO.
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Regarding this date range, I think snowfalls of 40-60cm for major resorts is a reasonable suggestion, at this point IMO.
     
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  25. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Is it still a long shot?
     
  26. kiter

    kiter One of Us

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    This far out you would have to say yes it is
     
  27. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Well trump was a long shot also so fingers crossed
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah, she's remained pretty steady since the weekend.
    Title change to 'The Good Shot' is necessary.

    Even AXS-G has come around.
     
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  29. zac150

    zac150 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The real question is, is it time to give it a name for the media”
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    @janesweather’s opinion on this system.
    “But… things change after that. The pattern shakes up, and cold fronts are able to peak here, bringing snow. Fronts are likely to pass through on Thursday, and again on Friday into Saturday. Amounts will become clearer as the time nears.
    THURSDAY: Persistent snow.

    Snow above 1400m: 5 to 20 cm.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY: Snow developing.

    Snow lowering to 1200m: 10 to 40 cm.”




    I’ll personally go for 40-70cm IMO at this stage of the game.

    GFS sits around 25-40cm, and EC 60-70cm.
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 18z run looks a little gun shy, with scale back on 12z.
    If GFS was an aircraft design it'd look like an incomplete Rubix cube.
    ...only airworthy if thrown.
     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah it will improve on 00z IMO.
     
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  34. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'm at the lower end (~40-50cm) at the moment just because I'm still not convinced the moisture is there. If the precip is still there in another 4 days I'll be a belieber in the big numbers...
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The key to such good numbers is in the duration IMO.
    3-4 days of relatively consecutive systems will accumulate considerably.
     
  36. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Visually (EC):
    Here's EC via Jane. What I like is it's both cold and moisture laden. Plenty of room for subsequent runs to scale back a bit on both variables but still give a decent result
     
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  37. Hear, hear to that.
     
  38. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    On previous runs GFS showed the moisture feed for the first part going through WA, which looked optimistic I think. Latest ones look better...
     
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  39. 18Z GFS that should be somewhat more acccurate than the 00z
    on the run error wise. Spat out a complex low. That is intresting
    and plauseable imo. Keep watching !!!
    download (5).png






     
  40. just viewed the ooz GFS plenty cold with moisture @ 1000 metres.

    gfs-aus-t500-2770800.png gfs-aus-t700-2770800.png gfs-aus-rh925-2770800.png

     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Blimey... GFS 00z run is looking the tits!
    Reminiscent of the start of June system, the way the High rolls off the back of the short waves.
    Rack ‘em stack ‘em. Looking big for this entire date range IMO.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do love that Southerly fetch on the backend.
     
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  43. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ok. I suggest we all tone it down so the hills aren't packed with people leaning on forecasts of big snow. Just pack the car and go without saying anymore.
     
  44. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Not as fancy as @Jwintermix and @POW_hungry maps but enjoying the all stations express, got something for all aspects here. Choo Choo 1
    [​IMG]
    Choo Choo 2
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  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z looks like it is three systems in one.
    First on the Wednesday going into the Thursday.


    Next one on the Friday into Saturday.


    And on the Sunday as well.


    There is five days of heavy snowfall. The duration is incredible, but it also has quite a bit of intensity at times in that moisture. It’s very consistent.

    As @Jwintermix says, it’s nice and cold.
    And as @Scoober says, it’s got something for the westerly liking resorts, and then a SW-WSW and then a more SSW-SW type system.

    That second one in particular looks very cold.
     
  46. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Hmmm 528 line ...
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah fair call. Bullish AF.
     
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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It would be awesome. But, lets be real now!
    IMO
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We’ve seen very little in the way of adjustment on EC with a positive trend, so the 00z run of EC is one worth waiting for.
    I continue to see strong anoms in our region over the next fortnight with all the adjustments in the polar region over the next week.

    A record breaking period is not off the table IMO.
     
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  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s coming pretty direct from the south, so the modelling is “plausible”. But it’s probably best to wait it out for a few days or so.
     
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