Predictions 10th-15th July - The Long Shot

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 30, 2019.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon the 10-20th July period will be the best snowfall period of the season so far, and probably extremely anomalous. 10-15th is looking solid. But I reckon there’s another system after that somewhere looking good. I was talking about the 18-22th the other day. It’ll be interesting either way.
     
  2. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Looks like winter is almost here. Maybe a week or so later than normal but, she does turn up once a year.
    This system looks the goods.
     
  3. Just as a reference point. The 12z ec was also showing a complex low with 3 embeded vorts. broad
    in the one system. Same as the GFS 18z vapour plot.
    ecmwf-newsouthwales-mslp_anom-2932800 (1).png
     
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 11th node on EC 00z:
     
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  5. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Shark heading north. Like.
     
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  6. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    That time of year I guess, where the LWT starts to kick up a bit of a fuss.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    And it looks like the 14th might be fruitful as well.
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC holding on albeit slower with a system on the 14th and 15th, in addition to the 11th.

    But jeezus it looks good.
     
  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Healthy mixing ratios and tolerable temps @ 850 hPa with a little help from adiabatic cooling .
     
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  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah at worst on the 12th it looks like 1400-1500m SL, so not that bad at all.
     
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  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z continues the trend of 50-80cm predictions for the full five days.
     
  13. Throwing the icon into the mix.
    moddeu_20190710_0600_animation.gif



    If the ec/gfs complex low holds serve, its a fair bet some where on the main land
    may see a supercell. Those runs wreak of more than just snow.
     
  14. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us

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    This is all starting to sound very promising, so what’s the catch?
     
  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    That it’s 168-264 hours out.
     
  16. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I have been talking up the July12-14th system as the snow drought buster to some of my associates. We all want some decent snow falls from these low pressure weather fronts.
     
  17. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Weather zone and Ms Bunn are now both on board for this snow fall later next week. I am taking medication to control my anticipation ;-P. By Monday will we be able to wheel out the board and compare forecasts?.
     
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  18. download (13).png

    EPS mean thinks the cold snap will reach the almost to the boarder.
    Artic conection. Bread and butter ens. Ok time to chill for awhileon this
    model storm.
     
  19. A few JD,s will stedy yor nerves.
     
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  20. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll go with a metre. Wednesday to Tues.
    Conservative
     
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  21. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Do you estimate down to how low the snow will fall?. Are you just looking at the KNP or something for us Mexicans?.
     
  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher.
     
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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    25cm in 6 hours. That would be quite the nuke if it holds.
    A little more than 4cm/hr for 6 hours.
    Not for a detailed forecast, more to note the intensity of the moisture here.

    Based on what I see on EC 00z, you can add 15-25cm during and after the Sunday.

    That would bring us to Donzah’s metre. I’m game to go for a 50-100cm event all up from 10th to 16th of July.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    3.28084 Foot Storm (TM)?
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    36 inches?!
     
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  26. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    Outstanding use of sporting analogy in weather prediction, er, I predict
     
  27. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    18 Blowey Storm (TM)

    Will they be angry inches though.
     
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest GFS (06z) would probably close the Hume and put snow down as low as 400m ASL through central Vic.
    And snow to SL in Western TAS.

    I smell a rat.
     
  29. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Canucks are not even remotely keen
     
  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Just like GFS to go all in around this point in the cycle.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, there are those divergent wobbles again.
    I still think GFS/EC are on the right track. Both have more experience with whats going on down South IMO. Just gotta find the even keel between 'em.
     
  32. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    July 15 is the start of Winter
     
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  33. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    Once again looks like winters coming on the 2nd week of school holidays, hopefully this will help open up more lifts on a already nice base.
     
  34. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice base????
    Not much base apart from snowmaking areas.
    Need to build a base
     
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  35. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    @POW_hungry if this comes off, save it in the archives for next season when everyone shouts doom and gloom at the end of June/ Start of July 2020 ;).
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic please folks.
     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wicked bit of Advective instability on EC. Should make for some interesting Skew Ts/ Hodographs imo.
     
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  39. Paperboy

    Paperboy One of Us

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    A base is snow on the ground, its go to be better than having a good dump on bushes.
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BSCH needs a few more shades of blue.
    -39C approaching from the SW of Tas is mindboggling UL's for AU.
    GFS is jacked.
     
  41. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A busy little plot showing off classic Irrotational- Divergent flow at altitude.
     
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  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jeez that is cold. What an anomaly. @SnowBound is right, if that comes off, It’s definitely something to bookmark.

    Probably won’t happen though...
     
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  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It is worth mentioning that GFS has gone from 25-40cm to 40-50cm for 6z.
    This might take a bit of time to get to the numbers EC has.
     
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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Possibly some jitters with the new FV3 morphing.
     
  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perhaps. Yesterday I asked a weather mate from the states to look at a weird change in bias from the new FV3 model. This isn’t related to straight coldfront predictions (teleconnections-related actually), but my point is that it’s changing the field we play on, I (and I sure you and others too) am just trying to look into what.

    There’s certainly some sort of long term cold bias that has already been noted. Not unlike old GFS, but in a different morph as you say.
     
  46. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could be experimenting with the sequencing of reanalysis would be my guess.
     
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  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stronger on EC this morning
     
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  48. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Yr no. Offering over 90cm!
     
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  49. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Probably more considering the temps
     
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  50. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Spread out over more days now. Would it possibly tip over into the 15th also?