Predictions 10th-15th July - The Long Shot

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 30, 2019.

  1. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us

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    Winter is coming!
     
  2. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

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    93cm down to Thredbo Village?!? The Alpine Way is going to struggle if that comes true.

    Im liking the look of this one, jumping between Thredbo and Perisher from the 12th-21st and wouldn't mind some freshies :yum:
     
  3. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Divide in half. And cool the jets. It’s still Spring In July. But as much as it’s hard to believe it will warm up when it’s freezing cold, the opposite is also true and that’s what gives me a sliver of hope that winter will return at least once more this season.
     
  4. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Mt Buller. Bottom elevation.
     
  6. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Starting to look a bit epic.
    Think we should give it 3-4 more days before we really hype the froth
     
    #206 Chowder11, Jul 5, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2019
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  7. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Have the Canadians signed on Donz?
     
  8. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I have hope
    #jacksgotthis
     
  9. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler Addicted

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    My grazing property's just short of 1,300 m AMSL, and the snowfall certainly looks bountiful from the 10-14th; forecast upgraded since yesterday, too:

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    65-100cm on EC this morning


    I'll still take 50-100cm IMO.
    GFS and the Canadian are improving, but still not as good as EC. So there's that to have in mind.
     
  11. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I think caution is best advised when we're still looking at events 200h ahead.
    By Sunday evening I think we'll have a firmer grasp on how it's going to pan out.
    IMO
     
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  12. Tweekin

    Tweekin One of Us

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    anything will be well received !
     
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  13. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    #3dayrule
     
  14. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Don't you use a poo tube?
     
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  15. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO we're better than that. Sometimes a lot better. The old 144 hour rule is now the 174 hour rule, especially when the models start lining up. They haven't yet for this system, but I feel it's not far away.
     
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  16. Dave Clark

    Dave Clark One of Us

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    Amateur hour from me but I just can't see more than 60-70cm - not just about temps it's the moisture.
     
  17. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  18. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    My prediction; 80cm raw fall (pre settling, consolidation etc) circa 1700m nsw 10-16 July based on a review of all FNMOC ensemble's synoptic and 6-hr precipitation charts.
     
  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats the Navy model?
     
  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmmm, maybe, I still like to wait for OCF.
     
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  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe a little more up to 80cm for Buller.
    I'd go 50-80cm for Buller.
    Less than a metre by virtue of being Buller.
    You'd open a truck load of the mountain with that.
     
  22. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Correct, well it's a us navy portal to the big 4 models.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    OCF is very much onside with AXS-G at the moment.
    OCF always needs more time IMO.
     
  24. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Slightly off topic - can someone tell me what Google uses as a basis? Is looks like it might be something called Accuweather which in turn is??
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weather.co/WeatherUnderground
    Which uses a short range aggregate model as far as I know - similar to OCF for Aus.
     
  26. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    You can count on the navy models to back up on one another.
     
  27. CMC
    gem-aus-z500_anom-2954400.png gem-aus-z500_anom-3030000 (1).png gem-aus-t500-3051600.png gem-aus-t700-3030000.png

    gem-aus-t700-3030000.png

    Hint subtle colour changes are key.
     
  28. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I know it’s accessg, but it’s showing a beast of a front pushing straight up towards vic/tassey on the 14th!! Purple line really pushes abnormally high up as well.
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Honestly AXS-G looks quite messy just looking now.
    EC looks better and more plausible.
     
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  30. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic :)
     
  31. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    All the charts and scenarios u guys are throwing up atm looking very positive for fairly sustainable good snowfalls! IMO

    What snow levels are we likely looking at for later next week into the weekend as things stand now?
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    At it's lowest; 800/900m on EC, lower on GFS. This is the conundrum at hand, highlighting very little model agreement.
     
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  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC is talking about ~600m on next Saturday and Sunday mornings.
    Something like ~800-900m on the Thursday

    edit: snap
     
  34. Arsas

    Arsas One of Us

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    Well looks like I've done it again. I'll be setting up camp at Sawpit on the 13th. :thumbs:.
    Hopefully its going to be like last year, with nice big fat flakes falling and not rain while i'm setting up.
     
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  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    You would probably see snow levels down to ~300m on GFS over the weekend. Hmm yeah we shall see about that.

    Either way, it’s gonna be quite cold.
     
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  36. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I highly rate accuweather - I think i have asked before where they get there feed from.

    Can't remember the answer.

    Would it say in the app anyone?
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AccuWeather use their own AccuModel in the states and an aggregate of global Models for International data points.
    They're typically very accurate in the short range as a result, but their skill falls away after 3-4 days (mid-range) as they rely on raw output from LR models such as CMC, EC, GFS.
     
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  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Similar to OCF really.
     
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  39. 2019-07-05 12_24_46-GDPS_ WeatherBell Maps.png

     
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  40. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler Addicted

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    Regarding Weather.com, I often find it to be more accurate than BOM/Meteye, especially when BOM over-forecasts for Adaminaby township, yet just a few km westwards, it's at least 3° C cooler; seldom, even Jindabyne is forecast colder than Adaminaby—despite Adaminaby's higher elevation and more windward, exposed position. The BOM tends to be very inconsistent.

    Mind you, I use Braemar Bay for BOM/Meteye forecasts—the most accurate location for my altitude and latitude (1,300 m AMSL; 36° S):

    http://www.bom.gov.au/places/nsw/braemar-bay
     
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  41. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Is it because the nearest BOM weather station is Gudgemby?
     
  42. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler Addicted

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    Perhaps; contrariwise, my region is closer to Cabramurra, henceforth forecast much cooler by maxima (and warmer by minima), as well as wetter. Much to the BOM's mistake, Gudgenby is nothing like Adaminaby in the slightest (despite lying at similar altitudes), as the latter is much wetter, snowier, cloudier, and cooler by maxima; Adaminaby's windward, as opposed to Gudgenby's leeward position.
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO if the township doesn’t have an AWS or calibrated public station, the forecast will always be open to interpretation. She’s a big ‘ole continent Aus with very tight mesoscale influences!
     
  44. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us

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    It’s a long shot....
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If all is still there by the weekend it’s a sure shot.
     
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  46. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well according to Meteye, Gudgemby is the closest (by 1.5km) weather station to Adaminaby, closer than Cabramurra. So I guess that's why they might use it even if the topography doesn't necessarily translate.

    FWIW: I'm not arguing where you live, clearly you know that. Yr.no has a location for Adaminaby, have you looked at that and compared it's accuracy?
     
  47. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler Addicted

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    Aye, very familiar with Yr.no already (Norwegian ancestry from Honnningsvåg meself, fun fact!), and it appears far more accurate than that of the BOM's. Oftentimes fairly accurate for me, as I've tested its accuracy many times for the fun of it.
     
  48. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us

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    And the weekend starts tomorrow :yum:
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
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  50. @ medium range now looks to start around the10th.