Predictions 10th-15th July - The Long Shot

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 30, 2019.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think in general the BOM are worth looking at 4 days to an event and closer. They are pretty conservative before that point, and that’s when you use the services of yr.no.

    The thing with MetEye/ADFD is that it is raw data that has been worked on by meteorologists, as opposed to yr.no and weather.com, which is just raw data. And it’s best use is to show the extent of snowfall, rather than depths. The Bureau’s main location forecasts, Yr.no and OCF (3-4 days in) are more useful for snow depths. But for the general population, MetEye does bring handy info in a graphical format.
     
  2. Back the quote with some more model data. Pretty much all models
    are showing the breaking wave.with the same solution

    download (1).png f37588b1-3061-344f-b902-2f5546f2cecf.png

     
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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just adding even more duration of this system from the 10th to 14th/15th.
    5-6 days of snowfall should get us to a metre at the MR resorts.
    And also quite a bit of severe weather, noting the strength of the height anomaly.
     
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  4. yeah some modeling showing those heights dropping,
    as far as the northern tablelands durring the duration
    of the cold snap
    .
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS looking a much better match for EC deterministic on the 10th/11th.
    14/15th is non-existent IMO for now.
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like there is a backend for the last system on the 14th per EC 12z, I wouldn’t call it non-existent, but there isn’t a real system like yesterday 00z there.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    One of the first things I'll discount out of a GFS run it's a 3rd follow-up system at >240 hours.
    IMHO
     
  8. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    IME since we lost the detailed Alpine forecast a few years back the BOM have not been very good for predicting skier weather. I mean conditions in the ski resorts and on the range proper. They seem to just restate the same general forecast for all towns on the east side. And we all know Jindy conditions are not relevant to the ski resorts and those BS percentage chance of showers doesn'tt really apply to the main range, which will remain socked in and snowy long after its fine and sunny from penderlea further east.
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z so far looks similar to EC 12z with the two nodes.
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    11th & 12/13th, yep.
     
  11. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    And a little third one out the back on the 14th.

    EC’s opinion on the matter will be interesting. It does look rather ridgey, but it also could look like a “last breath” of a large long wave. As said above, there’s time for this to play out.
     
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  13. Gotta like a three pronged attack. Adds a twist.
    download.png download (2).png
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Love the thought of it, just seldom comes to fruition.
    Models tend to usually drop a third hit once the first verifies IME. Usually ends in people labelling shit as 'fizzer' or 'I told you so'.
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ...by a bees dick.
    14/15th is a write off for me, at this point.
    [​IMG]
     
  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And so it begins....‍:rolleyes:
     
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  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That snowsearch site is legit numpties
     
  19. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    As i posted earlier - best to drop all discussion and just make plans to be down there next wednesday through tuesday. Just making it more crowded by hyping.
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Epic!! Everything is Epic!!!
     
  21. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    #thanksski.com.aupostsfortheheadsup
     
  22. FWIW Tassie and the main range could see some on the 14th imo.
     
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic
     
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  24. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Looks dependant on the low digging it heels into the high. So whichever wins the arm wrestle??? Very technical weather terms used there....... :D
     
  25. steeps

    steeps Addicted

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    Just like last year when I was at Hotham for the 1m week (Aug), it looks Like Perisher will deliver the goods next week from Wed to Sunday - just when I arrive for 5 days to meet the kiddies. I try to avoid the school holidays like the plague, but this year it is a necessary evil. If the forecast comes off for wed to sun, it wont be as evil !
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM diving right in (both sides of the border).
    No holds barred @ +144 hours.

    Buller:

    Hotham:


    Thredbo:
     
  27. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    And given the conservative approach you could probably use a 1.5 times factor on those estimates.
     
  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z for the 11th:

    Nice and heavy falls with this one.
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC upgrades heights/pressure for the 12th.
    [​IMG]
     
  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    And the 12th/13th node is the one with the duration, per EC 00z.
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC dropping the 14/15th on the 00z run, to not much surprise.
     
  32. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us

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    Temps between -1 and 0 with some westerly winds thrown in for Buller. Total amateur hour on my part but it doesn't seem that convincing! Am I missing something?
     
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  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    528 line over the Alps on Friday Night and Saturday Morning also on EC.
    That’s getting very cold.
    Snow levels down to ~500m.
     
  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon they will lower the temps tomorrow IMO.
     
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  35. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC is a bit of a downgrade (thouugh i'm looking at big intervals on tidbits)
    The weekend system looks ridgy AF
     
  36. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    And so it begins....
     
  37. Pretty much the ridging will be wipped/ cf. It will take time to build
    back in. In coming polar cyclone v/likely.

    ukmet-aus-mslp_anom-2544000 (1).png
     

    Attached Files:

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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, that's because it's dropped that reinforcing SW flow on the 14th.
    Looks on trend to me.

    I'll adjust to 50-70cm for the majors, IMO.
     
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  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    It dropped about 10cm or so.
     
  40. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not nessercelery
     
  41. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Was more the bullish low -vs a slider
    Mind you GFS is still bullish as re precip.
    Duration is still beyond 72 hours of decent snow
    even at 1cm an hour.....................
     
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  42. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    Also the wind will play a big part in helping fill in all the usual spots.
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well it's late to the pardy, but The Canuck has donned the gloves and jumped in the ring swinging, nonetheless.
     
  44. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like that poutine
     
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  45. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Latest yr no. is in.
    Looking dry towards the rear end 14th-15th. Similar overall amounts as morning upgrade, but more precipitation coming earlier on.

    For Perisher
     
  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    So much gravy
     
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  47. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    The G is on board. I personally find this a very pretty chart. :)
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Psst.... Saturday's is 10x better if you wanna lay hopes and dreams on da G.;)
     
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  49. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    That is just tooooo far away.:thumbs:
     
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