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Predictions 10th-15th July - The Long Shot

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 30, 2019.

  1. Wavey

    Wavey One of Us

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    GFS also on board with pretty decent precipitation for Thursday afternoon and temps easily cold enough for snow at the skifields. Should be a good dump of much needed natural snow at this stage, although I do find that GFS can sometimes over-estimate precip.

     
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 7 day prediction forecast from the models and the forecasters.

    The above is for Perisher Valley. To add some context for other resorts:

    For the NSW resorts, I am thinking 60-90cm as the snowfall total ATM.
    For the Hotham+Falls, 55-85cm.
    For Buller, 40-65cm.
    Baw Baw, 30-50cm.
    IMO.
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06z sending nudes, tonight.
    As it continues to remain very unsettled on this date range.
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah precip rates are differing between models particularly beyond the Thursday event. All to be expected I guess.
     
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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trending towards some heavy artillary . Proximity
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  7. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Cloud seeding o_O;)
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah, Kosciuszko glacier avie control.
     
  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag a bit Ho hum this evening
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag dont see all of that upper level Divergence.
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is still drinking the Kool Aid, whilst EC trends on the ridging influence.
    A shorter, sweeter system is looking likely IMO. This is supported by The Canuck, this morning.

    Still fruitful in the 40-70cm range for the major resorts, I think.

    EC
     
  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Downswing
     
  13. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 10th and 11th July appearing now on ACC g 7day interactive. The good news is that at least the next 2 cold pool pulses will peak in the SE of OZ. (vic and NSW).
    The first cold pulse coming through on thursday the 11th.
    Thickness is ok with a small but well centred blob at 536 thickness over the alpine region on thursday morning
    The speed of its passing is a concern . It looks to be gone by the end of the day
    The second pool following close behind coming in from the Bight
    Acc g showing a strong precipitation signal over the alps at around 4 am thursday morning. So the timing of that colder early morning time slot has to be be a bonus.
    This will be a very welcome snowfall
    http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/cha...EDT&area=Au&model=CG&chartSubmit=Refresh+View
     
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  14. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    As mentioned earlier the initial precip numbers looked way optimistic IMO. Still looks pretty good at this point though.

    Are you including Monday 16th in that range? It's outside the thread date range but arguably related to this event.
     
  15. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC ensembles are still strong

    as per @jonathanc above. YR.No data has a longer event

    The yr.no output looks more closely aligned to the EC ENS than the DETs I think.
     
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  16. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler Addicted

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    Upgraded! :cheers:

    Snowstorm conditions incoming:

    [​IMG]
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not even considering it.
    Related but difficult to see beyond the weekend. I think it will fade to black at the moment.
     
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  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  19. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair SW truck that
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    May want to reconsider Backcountry travel if EC is on the money imo. Composite view of various parameters indicating that this is no small magnitude anomaly .
     
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  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    So thats a ten dayer?
    worse day scenario?
     
  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes. 10 Days. Rapid and 46 dayer require subscription.
     
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC- Available moisture @ Dendritic Growth Zone heights are looking to be reasonably accommodating with that wind shear behavior imo. Steady as she goes.
     
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  24. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That's windy for 850hpa in a low pressure system.
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    [ Moderators Note] Date range extended to 15th.
     
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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  27. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thread title taken on different meaning.
     
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  28. 12z Ukmet was rock solid just like the previous 12z run
    .
    download (1).png




    141.phase1 (1).png




    Confluence in the low level baroclinic zone is the usual the trigger.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting... Because it's not got much of a chance extending to the 15th with >1020hPa over the alps on all models.
     
  30. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us

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    It's the tail of the beast, it can still wag.
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't see this often.
    GFS.
     
  32. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's Wednesday night Thurs
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    15th is a whole new shortwave.

    13th is the tail end.
    14th is a lay-day.
    15th is a ridge out IMO.
     
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  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    30-50cm in a 24 hour period. Packs a punch. Seems like it's carrying the weight of the entire period, at least from GFS.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Somewhat reflected on EC as well.
    30cm in 8-12 hours
     
  36. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS via nullschool is showing good temps and mositure apx 24 hours ahead of yr.no's update this morning.
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heights over Tassie on EC
     
  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Things look a little more modest than previous for Thursday on EC 00z, particularly compared to today’s GFS.
     
  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weds night into Thursday on GFS: 30-50cm
    The same on EC: 10-25cm
    Big divergence, considering we are a day out from the 4 day rule for the first part of it.
     
  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC’s cards on the 12th and 13th are pretty good:

    Solid as SW flow.
    Solid moisture.
    Ridged out quick after the 13th.
     
  41. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Weather zone are now saying there will be a few cms of snow on Mon- Wed. week July 15-17th. That period is when I plan to XC ski the Heathy Spur loop from Windy Corner :).That should freshen up the cover.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    15th? Yep thought so. Dead.
    [​IMG]
     
  43. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Tonight’s gfs update looks real cold overnight Friday night into Saturday morning imo! 528 thickness pushes right into southern vic and the next major thickness line looks like it reaches somewhere up near northern tassey from what I can see!
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trending ridge.
    Still down for 40-70cm for the majors (10-13th), in my camp.
    [​IMG]
     
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  45. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO the ridge is less determined than the LWT peak

    wait and see
     
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  46. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Hopefully the trending ridgyness is only short lived and it comes back a little? Not that it’s bad lol
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not looking anywhere near as cold as what GFS (and partly EC) were progging earlier in the week.
    I'd say snow as low as 900/1000m ASL at best for the Friday night/Saturday period on the latest run IMO.
     
  48. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Has time on its side pow to potentially hit back a little regarding those colder temps
     
  49. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    IMO (and correct me if I'm wrong) the lower snow level systems rarely deliver lots of moisture. Usually they're drier right?

    The more moist systems normally come with temps that could either deliver the goods or ruin the party.

    EDIT: In saying that, I guess it's a very generalised rule, considering all the variables that come with predicting a system...
     
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  50. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I will accept less volume but more dry powder snow. I am ready to accept quality over quantity but in the end I am going to XC ski on whatever I get !
     
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