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Predictions 10th-15th July - The Long Shot

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jun 30, 2019.

  1. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us

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    Fair call JB...

     
  2. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    For me I only think like that once there is a decent base (which there’s not) imo.
    It will snow and this is good :)
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some nice moisture @ 700hPa to ripen up the DGZ on GFS
     
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  4. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vibing the LWT isn't going to stall enough. My 80cm might have been bullish. Is the consensus more around the 50cm mark?
     
    kiter and POW_hungry like this.
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    40-70cm for the date range at the major resorts seems about right IMO.
     
  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest EC run has it a tad warmer @ 850 hPa late Thurs into Friday afternoon.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Supported exclusively by the upper levels in this period.
    Snow ~1400m Friday PM IMO.
    Marginal accumulation below 1600m, I'd say.
    EC 4pm (500mb):

    EC 4pm friday (850mb)
     
  8. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I saw that and the freezing temperature has risen to a higher level above sea level in the automated modelling for various snow locations incl. Mt. Buffalo.
    https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Mt-Buffalo/6day/mid
     
  9. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ms. Bunn is now predicting some R**n below 1400 M. on Friday afternoon according to her automated modelling.
     
  10. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    EC via Jane for Hotham. Remaining nice and cold and going for 60 ish cms
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's a fair call. Not much worth skiing in Aus below 1400m IMO.
     
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calmrational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thursday (Weds 10pm - Thurs 10pm):

    NSW: 15-30cm, 900m SL during the day, 1300-1400m later.
    VIC: 20-30cm 900m SL during the day, 1400m later.
    Heaviest falls for Victoria in the 2-8am period, NSW 4-10am period. Easing snowfall throughout the day.

    Friday

    VIC: 15-25cm, 1300-1400m during the day, 1000m later.
    NSW: 15-25cm, 1300-1400m during the day.
    Warmest mid afternoon for VIC, late afternoon for NSW. Heaviest falls late afternoon into night.

    Saturday

    VIC: 3-10cm, 700m during the day.
    NSW: 5-15cm, 700-800m during the day.
    Snowfalls heavy early, particularly for NSW.

    Sunday

    VIC & NSW: 2-5cm, 1000-1100m during the day.

    40-80cm all in all IMO.
    Buller and the lower resorts towards the bottom.
    The Main Range towards the top.
     
    crikey, AJS, Dave Clark and 5 others like this.
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is also showing warm advection 600- 700 hPa for same period. Not largely but we dont like our DGZ messed with.
     
  14. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    On a good day Lake Mtn. near Melb. can be well worth a day on XC planks.Some of that terrain is only just above 1350 M. Ditto for Mt. Stirling's circuit road & Mt.Buffalo.
     
    #364 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Jul 7, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2019
    PiedPiper likes this.
  15. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like sands through the hour glass - these are the days of our lives - and that farker has shown up again.
     
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calmrational Ski Pass: Gold

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    I wouldn’t worry too much. It will get marginal, but I’m sure there will be enough to XC on the weekend.

    But I suggest Stirling or Hotham, etc would be better.
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo. Could do with some improvement imo.
     
  18. Humm spend some $$$ locally boost the ski ecomony first Jet over the ditch spend some more$, In NZ then jet to hawaii to thraw out with a long board and then over to socal catch the swell. I wish.

    14-km EPS Global Globe 500 hPa Height Anom.gif






    .
     
  19. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looks to pump back up the 13th a tad on the 00z run, this arvo.
    Certainly some more strength in that High.
    [​IMG]
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I love it when BoM talks dirty like this:
     
  23. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bom Hotham. Great temps. Hoping that's conservatism reflected in the moisture. Seems a touch low?
     
    Polland likes this.
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I anticipate BoM wants to see some more settlement in the models before it commits accordingly.
    Tomorrow PM's broadcast will be the adjustment IMO.
     
  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calmrational Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z emphasising highest snowfall on Friday. 20-25cm, up to 30cm.

    Thursday and Saturday 15-20cm, up to 25cm.

    For the Big 4 resorts. IMO
     
  26. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us

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    Which resort has been relegated out of the ‘big resort’ list?
     
  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calmrational Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller. Because it's Buller.
     
  28. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler Addicted

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    Yet another upgrade—i.e. colder temps:

    [​IMG]
     
    crikey, JM72, Jacko4650 and 2 others like this.
  29. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Yep both gfs and accessg look really cold to me heading into Friday arvo/evening into Saturday morning with both showing 528 thickness pushing into southern vic. In terms of cold temps I think both models have hit back a little from yesterday. IMO
     
    Snowy Joey and Gregah like this.
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lock it in...
    [​IMG]
     
    mick chopps, Ado, SnowBound and 14 others like this.
  31. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    That is a huge lol.
     
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  32. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Yr. No seems to have reduced numbers a little this morning, however it has some more for Monday afternoon.
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A little bump-up from EC & GFS for Friday afternoon IMO.
     
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  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah EC does this a bit IMO
    between 72 and 144 hrs it seems to reduce precip amounts
    Though the charts are softening for sure.
     
  35. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its a totally different scenario to that forecast 5 or 6 days ago. No more complex low in Bass Straight.

    Still looks good for 50cm wed-sat and its the best i am going to get for the school holiday period.
     
    bywong_yuki likes this.
  36. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    classic 2 foot storm.




    *donzah, you’re slipping
     
  37. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    LOL - I was just about to write that
     
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  38. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    It’s as if the models get really excited when they realise a big system of some sort is coming, but come back to earth once it’s close enough to come into actual view. Happens almost every system I reckon.
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  39. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Happens on the ones you follow - which are the ones that look good. You don't notice the improver - because there is nothing to follow from early on - when the prediction looks ho hum.
     
  40. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    Replace “The models” with “we”
     
  41. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    It was looking far too good to be true esp. for locations below 1400 M. I am changing plans to match lowered expectations.
     
  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calmrational Ski Pass: Gold

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    For Perisher.

    15-25cm for the Weds night/Thursday
    20-35cm for Friday and Saturday
    5-10cm for Sunday/Monday for the moment.
     
  43. blueandwhite

    blueandwhite One of Us

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    Thoughts for Buller @Jellybeans? Though I am slightly scared to ask having looked at the BOM revised forecast. Hello marginal temperatures and westerly winds my old friends, you seem to be back again...
     
    #393 blueandwhite, Jul 8, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2019
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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    ECMWF 12 Z still looking minty imo. Early on the 15th cards still on the table for NSW imo.
     
  45. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Base is 40. better than nil.
     
  46. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    :confused: Where .. Name a cross country skiing area in Vic with a natural snow base of 40 cm ?
     
    Mister Tee on XC Skis likes this.
  47. Adaminaby Angler

    Adaminaby Angler Addicted

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    Just keeps getting better!

    [​IMG]
     
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  48. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    Look its not a bad chart. Lower pressure would have been nice. The one thing I can almost guarantee is that it will be windy AF.
     
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  49. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    So does this.
    [​IMG]
    For the unintiated WZ folk. We have a unofficial "four day rule" in weather forecasting in this forum.
    Where we migrate back to the tried and true BOM 4 dayer.
     
  50. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    ^^Snap
     
    Donzah likes this.