Predictions 10th-15th July - The Long Shot

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, Jun 30, 2019.

  1. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    So many troughs - stop that ridge thanks
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXSR looks quite special this arvo
     
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  3. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Dont ya just love a Vapour Stream at 700 hPa Many thanks to Miss Bentley for creating and kind use of these plots.
     
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  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thredbo looking ripe.
     
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  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has 528 thickness over the alps saturday morning
    powder burr
     
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  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Solid readjustment. Come and gone, and back again. I think we’ll see an upswing on EC too IMO.
     
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  7. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    At 528 thickness what would be the FL or snow level
     
  8. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    500-700 IMO
     
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  9. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    The drive to the mountain will be interesting Sat morning.
     
  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats no ink stain. All Major models have Deep Layer Shear with the Alps as main target.
     
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  11. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah if the moisture is there from the right direction
     
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  12. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    You'll be getting snow at Tom Groggin.
     
  13. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS has a FL of 756.6m at 7am
    Thickness of 5255.
    850hpa temp of -4.2 at 1400m asl

    Thats cold
     
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  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Buller 1 am Sat looking not too shabby imo. Some of the earlier in the system Skew Ts are still a tad on the marginal side for the lower Mtn but still will be worth popping a cork imo.
     
  15. Dave Clark

    Dave Clark One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ha I love that it won't be snowing at 756.4m
     
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  16. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  17. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us

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    But snow can fall below the freeze level....o_O
     
  18. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  19. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Modest upgrade from Bom for Wednesday. Minor tick upward on Friday.
     
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  20. Gregah

    Gregah One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    edit: Hotham
     
  21. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I feel he may have been a touch facetious.
     
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  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The golden rainbow of wind shear. Earth Relative Vorticity doing its finest job at steering things our way to the Alps.
     
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  23. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    That will do for me,the cold air that’s pushing up towards the vic coast Friday morning looks very cold!
    Im tipping I could be seeing some snow flurries from early Friday evening all throughout the night into Saturday morning up here in the strezleckis.
    Anytime that 528 thickness line is hanging around the area is a good thing for me. IMO
     
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  24. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    It just means it will snow on top of your head but not your arms.
     
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  25. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Dandruff?

    On topic: Yeah.Na going for a pretty intense wind chill for Oberon on Saturday...
     
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  26. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Mountainwatch downgraded 7 day snowfall to 31cm Perisher
     
  27. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    why?
     
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  28. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

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    I much prefer the Bunn predictions to the Mountainwatch ones atm. Any idea as to what is causing the anomaly?
     
  29. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Maybe they want to simmer expectations?
     
  30. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    MW being a pos may be a start
     
  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    And MW weather being led by an insect might be a conclusion.
     
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  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on topic please guys.
     
  33. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snow every day for 10 days.........



    Maybe more.....
     
  34. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us

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    I will be camping at mount kosi camp group Friday/Saturday should be interesting drive up Friday arvo, lucky my boss said I can work from Canberra office on Friday.

    My main concern is wind hold tho as I want to be able to snowboard on this amazing aussie powder on Saturday/Sunday

    Will Thredbo top station kosi chair lift be open do we think? Hopefully they can final open the t bars as well!
     
  35. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    Jane (EC) going all in for the next week and beyond. Perfectly timed for my Sunday arrival.
     
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  36. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah the EC data via yr.no has just rattled in
    Upgrade.com.zn
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah it's the upgrade of the 15th system.
    Worrying.
    Mind your hopes and dreams, people.
     
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  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans calm and rational Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon 25-40cm.
     
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  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    4pm Sunday to 4pm Monday on EC is looking bullish imo as well. 5-7 cm at best.
     
  40. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Our livy says dare to dream.

     
  41. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Varneys range will be interesting
    as will skitube to Bullocks
    [​IMG]
     
  42. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Well, accessg on tonight’s update looking very interesting and positive for another front coming straight up from the south next Monday imo
    The high pressure looks to weaken and retreat further inland to allow “the whales” I mean the fronts move northward!! Goto where are u now we need u!!
     
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  43. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    Sydney to Jindy drive will be interesting on Saturday
     
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  44. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looks insane for friday 4pm-10pm
     
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  45. Bogan Daddy

    Bogan Daddy Hard Yards

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    Not fully aboard this. Adelaide is holding at 15 to 16 degrees. Kletterer, your shear chart does only nick Adelaide. Is that why the temps are warm? Normally I would be looking for temps of sub 14 with this sort of forecast. Not sure about after Sunday either as that high out west seems to be strengthening and moving slowly SE to block. Really hope I am wrong as I am down Wednesday and the kids race Thursday to Satuday next week.
     
  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    These systems will hit Adelaide in a day or two
    https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/South_Australia/Adelaide/long.html

    looks chilly and wet
     
  47. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    For where donz? All through the mountains?
     
  48. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    yes
    basically the timing of the front..
    it will carry a heavy punch
     
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  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Adelaide gets plenty of Deep Layer Shear earlier.
     
  50. Bogan Daddy

    Bogan Daddy Hard Yards

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