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Predictions 10th -15th June. Astros Abomination System that just keep Coming.

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Astro66, Jun 2, 2019.

  1. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Long way out. Looks like a bit of a cutoff. Temps marginal. Showing on Spag. (Yes I know. GFS generated.) Peaking a little early ?

    Thoughts ?




     
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  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  4. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not convinced about GFS at this stage.
     
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  5. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's weather. Much better than jellyfish highs sitting in the bight all month :)
     
  6. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    and velcro highs centred over bendigo ;)
     
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  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next big system IMO.
    And I am not talking about the little cutoff precursor on the OP image above.

     
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  8. Arsas

    Arsas One of Us

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    Is there any chance of this being a opening weekend spoiler (by arriving earlier) with the prefrontal that is forecast? (Showing up on Yr.no)
     
  9. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saturday and most of sunday will be fine.
    Monday is a write off.
    Then 60cm off tonights EC charts
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 500 hPa temps could do with a bit more of a dip.
     
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  11. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ahhh ...... GFS updated, I see the main event. Looks cold and moist. In weather, 2 beautiful words. :D



     
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  12. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    no thanks ew only positive thing about that is drought relief

     
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep and 6z GFS is looking colder too in the main cold node, much more like EC and CMC.

    But that prefrontal just got a lot worse for Sunday and Monday. Let’s hope that trend doesn’t continue,
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looking to have the best progression here. The ridging flattens things a little.
    15-25cm for the major resorts for 10-11th IMO.

     
  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    after 20-25mm of rain...
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    If there’s any change in this system it’s the prefrontal.
    Doesn’t look that bad TBH.
     
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Precip. comparisons- ( includes period from 10 pm tonight.)
     
  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Still looks good on EC with a hint of a second pulse

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    CMC

    [​IMG]

    Potentially quite big on GFS IMO

     
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  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We could end up with a substantial base by mid June if that comes to fruition.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Starting to look a little ridged out on EC and CMC, IMO
    Still something here though.
     
  21. Alfred14

    Alfred14 Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    [​IMG]

    Looks wet on latest GFS.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Back end of date range looks more promising.
    But too far out to have any sort of confidence IMO

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  23. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Im not convinced, i think its going to be what we fear most.
     
  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Could just as easily slip south be ridged out. IMO
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looks better, but we'll have to hold out till around 13/14th.
    I think the 10/11th is done like a dinner.
     
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  26. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    thats what im hoping for
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Indeed.
    EC progression looks a little odd, but the end result appears the same as GFS and CMC
    IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think you are talking about the rain on the 10/11th. 10-30mm at this point IMO. Won’t be good if you are there obviously, but it is still fairly early in June.

    The period from the 13/14th and possibly onto the 17th (at least according to GFS), looks somewhat better. But it is still quite messy
     
    #28 Jellybeans, Jun 4, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2019
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  29. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    For those of us with zero knowledge of what you guys say half of the time....:
    How messy is messy?
     
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  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    We will need a few days for the models to bring some sort of coherent view of the period. But on the upside, the scenarios being brought up are good, we just need to wait and see if it stays around or goes the way of the 10/11th period.
     
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  31. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ok, patience is a virtue hey??

    Thanks heaps
     
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  32. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    10th / 11th is cooked and hopefully not too wet. Looks worst on GFS but that tends to overstate precip.

    Potential for resort level temps to get pretty marginal on 13th / 14th too.
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Over a week away. Revisit over the weekend, I reckon.
     
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  34. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bom Hotham.
     
  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yuck, yuck, yuck, yuck, yuck, yuck.

    IMO
     
  36. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might be an early peak this season.
     
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  37. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like before the start of the season? ;) Have we already had DOTS?
     
  38. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Big downgrade on EC overnight. Warm and wet.
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big peak in LWT over WA, spells mid-lat draw-in across the continent.
    There's no escaping rain here.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    However, EC is the lesser evil, with less moisture inbound out of the NW shelf. Time to look past the 10/11th IMO.

     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Sub-optimal.

    IMO
     
  41. Gregah

    Gregah Addicted Ski Pass: Silver

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    Jane agrees. Its not looking flash but its early June after all so enjoy QBW if you can get there.

     
  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC looks like it has a dry cold pool on 13/14th, after the rain.

    GFS looks like it has proper snow in the forecast on 14-16th.

    CMC is a ridge out for now beyond the rain.
     
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  43. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    That’s a lot of not snow :(
     
  44. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki Addicted

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    I guess an advantage of having a weak El Nino and not a 2016 La Nina.
     
  45. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki Addicted

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    Yes not ideal. But should provide some rain where its needed.
     
  46. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki Addicted

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    Getting slightly better
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC ensembles certainly alludes to this date range also.
     
  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Indeed. 16-18th looks like the pick of the mean, Control a little earlier.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Suggest we create a new date range thread for the 14-18 date range - if it holds up.
    This thread can remain as is for the period before.
     
  50. base615

    base615 Addicted

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    I have no idea what I'm looking at with these things :(