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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Astro66, Jun 2, 2019.
IMO weather is better than no weather. The worst years have no weather. Sorry Claude.
Monday looks like 15-30mm.
Wednesday/Thursday looks like 15-30mm also IMO. 0-5cm of snow afterwards.
Monday looks worse for VIC, and Weds-Thurs looks a tad worse for NSW.
Doesn't look good. Peaks way too early. I pick a great system to put my name to.
Precipitation in drought is good for the common cause if unfortunately not for the skier/boarder cause if it be clear not white.
GFS Second pulse has a huge amount of upper divergence over Adelaide with the initial disturbance moved well off the East Coast despite the previous close proximity approaching the Bight .Im seeing lowish probablility in eventual obs imo.
According to a friend who’s PhD is in climate and weather and is also an avid snow chaser the term best used for this one is “shitshow”.
Looking slightly better this morning IMO. I think as @POW_hungry alluded too best we wait for the weekend to run its course.
GFS and EC swapped, now EC has lower precipitation totals, than GFS.
10-25mm both systems ATM.
How much damage could that do to nsw resorts, do you think? Should I hold off booking a July school hols family trip until after the rain event passes?
It will do damage to lower resorts, Buller and the lower slopes of the other majors.
Thredbo won't be great down the bottom, but the top will only see a bit of damage. Perisher will get some damage but it isn't earth shattering.
This predicted R**N will wipe out most of the lower VIC XC ski locations. Then we will wait for the next 20 Cm snow system. I am going back to watching the surf report for a week or two.
Jane has a very in-depth discussion about this system:
Thanks! Probably end up much like usual July in Perisher then... Links may or may not be open etc..
Smiggins will be a bit rough and bottom of Blue cow, but up higher should generally fair ok.
We just need some cold weather after to firm it all up
Bom calling for snow above 1900m on Monday,
Interested to hear the experts though on this.....
The BOM are the experts.
IMO Mt Baw Baw will be in rain shadow for this. Would 20mm wipe them out?
One hopes that somewhere will be spared from this deluge of R**n. I am honestly looking at Falls Creek and the BHP on or about the 22nd of June for decent day tour on BC XC skis. Verily much too long a pause for me after skiing 4 days this week with no gate fees!.@ubiquitous steve suggests manning the life rafts next week ,not skiing anywhere. I tend to agree with him. Skiing in May and in the first week of June was/is too good to be true. Reality bites , skiing will resume later this month.
Not from what I seen on Wednesday
what time does the rain arrive in NSW alpine on Monday roughly?
Heading down tonight and it’s our first attempt at camping . Allows us to go every other week...
OBS from Thredbo to follow...
Bom sliding back on the moisture.
Keep it going......
BoM - 4 Dayer
yr no Perisher
BoM - Snowies
BoM - Perisher
BoM - Thredbo
Far from great...
I keep eyeing off new skis but really what I need is a canoe, judging by the forecast.
Or clear snow.
Hi everybody, been on the edge of the forum watching for years & as a QLD'er (pls dont hold it agains me) dont get down your way very often, 2005 last I remember. Perisher is the obvious choice, given the reasonable base atm is that rain going to stuff it? Yes to a degree but its only June. Taking my oldest down in first week of July for a few days but I wont cancel on a bit of rain, hell, be a great experience given we havnt has much of that stuff either. Lots of guessing with EC, GFS & CMC. EC got 2" on Perisher over 10 days atm & so what, take the good with the bad.
BOM 4 day charts are a gold guide, any predictions beyond are a bit of dream.
Hang in there, enjoy weather, snow, hail, rain or shine! There is always Gluhwein!
Have you started on the kuhano vino already slovenski? ps welcome!
Stay on topic
Thank you, hvala, Pink.
Be watching the weather with interest next couple weeks.
I am also resigned to having up to 2 weeks off the planks because of R**N. :-(
Thredbo has the same base at similar elevations. Why is Perisher the obvious choice?
How much do you like downloading ?
TBH I never skied Thredbo, maybe give it a go this time if conditions permit.
Interesting night time obs atm, (sorry off topic)
If the forecast rain wont kill the snow, then those temps will.
Just doesn't really have the snow making infrastructure at "similar elevations" and is ultimately 1/4 the size, so in lesser conditions, if repeating the same run over and over (Antons / Sponnars ) is your thing, then by all means enjoy.
That said, when its ON, its really ON
EC Rapid 12 Z. Snow depth - 3pm Tuesday.
That includes existing cover though?
Yes. Thats the anticipated remaining base depth.
Inversion, quite common this time of year. Bottom of thredbo would have been colder then all those places. From what I could hear they had a good night of snowmaking down low.
EC Rapid 18 Z run activates circa 11 15 am. Hopefuly a more favourable scenario emerges.
The forecast still looks grim, (more suitable for water skiing ) for most locations in VIC. below 1700 M. esp. the southern XC ski locations. Now over to the surf report …...
Prediction for this period
EC Rapid 18 Z has quite a reduction in precipitation over the Alps for Monday.
It’s good to know the usual downgrades apply to both frozen and unfrozen snow!
Bom hedging its bets for Hotham next week.
3-5 degrees and 30mm of snow
This coming weather system is dead loss regarding useful precipitation as far as I am concerned. Could moderators please open a thread for the weather for the week starting Monday June 17th ?
Was looking ever so slightly patchy up at hotham today but amazing for early June. Only problem is nothing in vico apart from isolated areas of 1.5cm deep surface crust has had a refreeze since thursday. Now back to the surf report me tee .