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Predictions 10th -15th June. Astros Abomination System that just keep Coming.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Astro66, Jun 2, 2019.

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  1. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    IMO weather is better than no weather. The worst years have no weather. Sorry Claude.
     
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  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday looks like 15-30mm.
    Wednesday/Thursday looks like 15-30mm also IMO. 0-5cm of snow afterwards.

    Monday looks worse for VIC, and Weds-Thurs looks a tad worse for NSW.
     
    Ret-ro likes this.
  3. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Doesn't look good. Peaks way too early. I pick a great system to put my name to. :headbang::headbang::headbang:

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Precipitation in drought is good for the common cause if unfortunately not for the skier/boarder cause if it be clear not white.
     
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  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Second pulse has a huge amount of upper divergence over Adelaide with the initial disturbance moved well off the East Coast despite the previous close proximity approaching the Bight .Im seeing lowish probablility in eventual obs imo.
     
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  6. Kopite

    Kopite One of Us

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    According to a friend who’s PhD is in climate and weather and is also an avid snow chaser the term best used for this one is “shitshow”.
     
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  7. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    Looking slightly better this morning IMO. I think as @POW_hungry alluded too best we wait for the weekend to run its course.
     
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  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS and EC swapped, now EC has lower precipitation totals, than GFS.
    10-25mm both systems ATM.
     
  9. Val Desire

    Val Desire Hard Yards

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    How much damage could that do to nsw resorts, do you think? Should I hold off booking a July school hols family trip until after the rain event passes?
     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It will do damage to lower resorts, Buller and the lower slopes of the other majors.

    Thredbo won't be great down the bottom, but the top will only see a bit of damage. Perisher will get some damage but it isn't earth shattering.
     
  11. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    This predicted R**N will wipe out most of the lower VIC XC ski locations. Then we will wait for the next 20 Cm snow system. I am going back to watching the surf report for a week or two.
     
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  12. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane has a very in-depth discussion about this system:

     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  13. Val Desire

    Val Desire Hard Yards

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    Thanks! Probably end up much like usual July in Perisher then... Links may or may not be open etc..
     
  14. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Smiggins will be a bit rough and bottom of Blue cow, but up higher should generally fair ok.

    We just need some cold weather after to firm it all up
     
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  15. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bom calling for snow above 1900m on Monday,
    Interested to hear the experts though on this.....
     
    Val Desire likes this.
  16. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    The BOM are the experts.
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO Mt Baw Baw will be in rain shadow for this. Would 20mm wipe them out?
     
  18. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    One hopes that somewhere will be spared from this deluge of R**n. I am honestly looking at Falls Creek and the BHP on or about the 22nd of June for decent day tour on BC XC skis. Verily much too long a pause for me after skiing 4 days this week with no gate fees!.@ubiquitous steve suggests manning the life rafts :p next week ,not skiing anywhere. I tend to agree with him. Skiing in May and in the first week of June was/is too good to be true. Reality bites , skiing will resume later this month.
     
  19. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Not from what I seen on Wednesday
     
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  20. bondibob

    bondibob One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    what time does the rain arrive in NSW alpine on Monday roughly?

    Heading down tonight and it’s our first attempt at camping . Allows us to go every other week...

    OBS from Thredbo to follow...
     
  21. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bom sliding back on the moisture.

    Keep it going......
     
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  22. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM - 4 Dayer



    yr no Perisher



    BoM - Snowies



    BoM - Perisher



    BoM - Thredbo

     
  23. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Far from great...
     
  24. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I keep eyeing off new skis but really what I need is a canoe, judging by the forecast.
     
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  25. Snowby

    Snowby First Runs

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    Or clear snow.
     
  26. Slovenski

    Slovenski Hard Yards

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    Hi everybody, been on the edge of the forum watching for years & as a QLD'er (pls dont hold it agains me) dont get down your way very often, 2005 last I remember. Perisher is the obvious choice, given the reasonable base atm is that rain going to stuff it? Yes to a degree but its only June. Taking my oldest down in first week of July for a few days but I wont cancel on a bit of rain, hell, be a great experience given we havnt has much of that stuff either. Lots of guessing with EC, GFS & CMC. EC got 2" on Perisher over 10 days atm & so what, take the good with the bad.
    BOM 4 day charts are a gold guide, any predictions beyond are a bit of dream.
    Hang in there, enjoy weather, snow, hail, rain or shine! There is always Gluhwein!
     
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  27. Pink

    Pink One of Us

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    Have you started on the kuhano vino already slovenski? ps welcome!
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic
     
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  29. Slovenski

    Slovenski Hard Yards

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    Thank you, hvala, Pink.
    Be watching the weather with interest next couple weeks.
    Nazdravje.
     
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  30. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    I am also resigned to having up to 2 weeks off the planks because of R**N. :-(
     
  31. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    Thredbo has the same base at similar elevations. Why is Perisher the obvious choice?
     
  32. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    How much do you like downloading ?
     
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  33. Slovenski

    Slovenski Hard Yards

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    TBH I never skied Thredbo, maybe give it a go this time if conditions permit.
    Interesting night time obs atm, (sorry off topic)
    Cooma -2.8C
    Perisher 2.4C
    Thredbo 4.9C
    If the forecast rain wont kill the snow, then those temps will.
     
  34. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just doesn't really have the snow making infrastructure at "similar elevations" and is ultimately 1/4 the size, so in lesser conditions, if repeating the same run over and over (Antons / Sponnars ) is your thing, then by all means enjoy.

    That said, when its ON, its really ON :)
     
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  35. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yuck




    Yuckier

     
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  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid 12 Z. Snow depth - 3pm Tuesday.
     
  37. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    That includes existing cover though?
     
  38. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes. Thats the anticipated remaining base depth.
     
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  39. nick12

    nick12 Addicted

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    Inversion, quite common this time of year. Bottom of thredbo would have been colder then all those places. From what I could hear they had a good night of snowmaking down low.
     
  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid 18 Z run activates circa 11 15 am. Hopefuly a more favourable scenario emerges.
     
  41. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    The forecast still looks grim, (more suitable for water skiing ) for most locations in VIC. below 1700 M. esp. the southern XC ski locations. Now over to the surf report …...
     
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  42. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us

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    Prediction for this period
     
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  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Rapid 18 Z has quite a reduction in precipitation over the Alps for Monday.
     
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  44. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    It’s good to know the usual downgrades apply to both frozen and unfrozen snow!
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  46. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    Bom hedging its bets for Hotham next week.
     
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  47. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    3-5 degrees and 30mm of snow :confused:
     
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  48. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    This coming weather system is dead loss regarding useful precipitation as far as I am concerned. Could moderators please open a thread for the weather for the week starting Monday June 17th ?
     
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  49. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Was looking ever so slightly patchy up at hotham today but amazing for early June. Only problem is nothing in vico apart from isolated areas of 1.5cm deep surface crust has had a refreeze since thursday. Now back to the surf report me tee .
     
  50. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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