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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Astro66, Jun 2, 2019.
Stay on Tropic
You get in the bowl
BoM predicting snow above 1900m for NSW resorts. Won’t be dry powder IMO.
Lots of cloud building behind the range and blowing in late this afternoon .... warm and north
I've seen a thousand systems like this during our winters.
Watch the back end dates 14/15th get an upgrade over the next 2-3 days. It's ridgey but the moisture will get juiced IMO.
Won't be a net gain but you typically get a kick in the models once the rain event verifies.
base builder mate! all good once the sun gets on it.
BOM going for record cold temperature in VIC apparently (Hotham forecast)
Fat fingers maybe
Buller going for -11, guns will be firing big time
Vic BoM is off it's head for all resort's low temp on Friday.
Such a bizarre oversight from them.
Extraordinary, surey must be a typo.
How can Perisher/Thredbo have a min -2C & over the boorder -11/-12C Falls/Hotham on Fri?
They got something NSW doesnt?
Inversions can be extremely fickle within one valley, let alone 100km apart. I would not be surprised if it’s 100% accurate.
My mum announced this morning 'oh it's going to snow over 1900m!!!'
Me: mum, that's not something to be happy about!
Mum also learnt about inversions this morning.
July 2016 #lakeperisher .
Okay same same but different. Had almost a metre of snow after more or less 100mm of rain. I was there both days. Incredible what can happen literally overnight.
I was actually surprised how little damage that much rain did in 2016. When the lake subsided, I expected zero snow left, but it was still largely filled in?
My daughter left the day before. I arrived the day after.
What date in 2016 was that again? Like to re visit the pics.
Tell her to be cheerful about snow falling above 900 M.....in QLD.
22nd. First day of school skiing for a Jindy kids, Alpine way closed due to flooding. Next day cars getting blown off the roads, Terminal top lifty hut blown over then it snowed.
Noticed on BOM obs not quite as warm in Perisher, predicted 7C, only got to 5.3C around 1pm. Maybe a good sign?
In the mountains, diurnal max temps (inversion, dense daily cloud cover) are reached at all hours of the day/night.
Check back tomorrow to draw that conclusion.
And only a couple of days after...
I do believe you may spot myself and @nfip standing at the bottom of that boarder cross course, looking across longingly.
And by the time the girls finished, the snow had turned heavy
and we'd do it all again.
Also ended up well that year at Nats.
Podium was Jindy , Jindy , UHS.
Sydney (privates) donut .
The 2016 rain event compared to the 2017 one after the first season saving dump in late July was quite different.
2017 was actually a lot more rain. but had little impact and the replacement snow came a bit later. but recovery was so big, it's possible most people don't even know it happened.
2016 had less rain during the entire event but flooded much more. And a good chunk of the reported mm in the PV BOM gauge actully fell as snow. With more soon after. The SC snowdepth reading was already heading way south as seen on the thursday reading just before the rain. How much damage occured remains an unknown - but it would have been smashed - but the recovery was such that there was more snow after the rain/snow that there was before. Totaly weird and only topped by the last day of 2016 dumping almost pow after noon through to last runs on the V8. And then the season peak occured after the lifts had closed. From memory there was another crazy snow event earlier that final horror long weekend with eyre 2 foot deep in fresh snow one morning before it turned to rain again.
2017 rain event was probably the largest winter precip recorded at PV BOM in a 24 hour period. And from what I was told it only really flooded in the telemark/piper valley which was smashed hard.
So expect anything from 20 - 120 of rain in the next 48 hours. And whatever comes next will be.
Bom seriously upgrading the moisture for tomorrow
Unless you found trees
On topic - moisture looks awful in the coming days. Pack a poncho...
Remember to read the prognosis correctly.
It's 100% chance of more than 0.2mm rain. Potential rain 45-60mm.
If they get 10mm rain they are still correct.
The first number is a 50% chance of occurring.
The second number is a 25% chance of occurring.
These are both really good things to remember. Thanks Guys!!!!!
The other difference between those two years and the two rain events was the damage done beneath the surface of the snow. I recall in spring for one of those years the snowpack was really hollow and rotten underneath, where water had flowed, and collapsed quickly as it warmed. The other year it just seemed to run off the surface, with less damage beneath.
This year we don't actually have much of a base for it to run underneath
However, we have to remember, even if it was washed away to 0cm at Spencers (which is not going to happen), that it is still only the second week of June. There is a long time to go yet, and I predict it will snow and we will have big systems come through
Stay on topic.
I predict a less than optimal result from this system.
Yes wishful thinking
EC Ensembles holding onto to what's golden, and favouring a 14-16th Juice up.
Putting a bit of positiveity back into your Lizzie's B-Day long weekend.
Temps look ok at this stage.
This is putting the Lake back into Lake mountain.
Looking like 5-10cm for most resorts Thursday to Saturday IMO.
Mods wanna extend the date range?
Seems you have some weather forecasting skills DSNS! A few of our resident weather gurus might be getting worried.
Yeah most of the snowfall looking like it will fall Thurs night into Friday morning.
Not much more than 5cm, up to 10cm, but who’s gonna knock back some snow after a truckload of rain.
Bureau’s forecast for Hotham:
A broken clock is right twice a day.
Someone is a glutton for punishment.
So it looks like the cold pool arrives in the Alpine Region late Thursday and departs Saturday. Though the moisture dries up Friday.
Temps marginal IMO. But there is hope of "The Abomination Redemption".
Did anyone come up with a name for this system? Astros Curse sounds good.
It looks better on paper this way.
There's still room for a dud too. EC 00z says GFY with a flurry at best for the 3 days.