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Predictions 10th -15th June. Astros Abomination System that just keep Coming.

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Astro66, Jun 2, 2019.

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  1. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  2. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    You get in the bowl:p
     
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  3. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM predicting snow above 1900m for NSW resorts. Won’t be dry powder IMO.
     
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  4. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lots of cloud building behind the range and blowing in late this afternoon .... warm and north
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I've seen a thousand systems like this during our winters.
    Watch the back end dates 14/15th get an upgrade over the next 2-3 days. It's ridgey but the moisture will get juiced IMO.

    Won't be a net gain but you typically get a kick in the models once the rain event verifies.
     
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  6. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    base builder mate! all good once the sun gets on it.
     
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  7. hongomania

    hongomania One of Us Ski Pass: 30 Day

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    BOM going for record cold temperature in VIC apparently (Hotham forecast) :confused:

     
  8. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fat fingers maybe :)
     
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  9. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Buller going for -11, guns will be firing big time
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vic BoM is off it's head for all resort's low temp on Friday.
    Such a bizarre oversight from them.
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Slovenski

    Slovenski Early Days

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    Extraordinary, surey must be a typo.
    How can Perisher/Thredbo have a min -2C & over the boorder -11/-12C Falls/Hotham on Fri?
    They got something NSW doesnt?
     
  12. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Inversions can be extremely fickle within one valley, let alone 100km apart. I would not be surprised if it’s 100% accurate.
     
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  13. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    My mum announced this morning 'oh it's going to snow over 1900m!!!'

    Me: mum, that's not something to be happy about!
     
  14. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Mum also learnt about inversions this morning.
     
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  15. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    July 2016 #lakeperisher ;).

    Okay same same but different. Had almost a metre of snow after more or less 100mm of rain. I was there both days. Incredible what can happen literally overnight.
     
  16. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was actually surprised how little damage that much rain did in 2016. When the lake subsided, I expected zero snow left, but it was still largely filled in?
     
  17. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    My daughter left the day before. I arrived the day after.:D
     
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  18. Marquise de Kappy

    Marquise de Kappy One of Us

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    What date in 2016 was that again? Like to re visit the pics.
     
  19. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Tell her to be cheerful about snow falling above 900 M.....in QLD.
     
  20. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    22nd. First day of school skiing for a Jindy kids, Alpine way closed due to flooding. Next day cars getting blown off the roads, Terminal top lifty hut blown over then it snowed.
     
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  21. Ted Harper

    Ted Harper One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  22. Slovenski

    Slovenski Early Days

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    Noticed on BOM obs not quite as warm in Perisher, predicted 7C, only got to 5.3C around 1pm. Maybe a good sign?
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nope.
    In the mountains, diurnal max temps (inversion, dense daily cloud cover) are reached at all hours of the day/night.
    Check back tomorrow to draw that conclusion.
     
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  24. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    And only a couple of days after...

     
  25. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I do believe you may spot myself and @nfip standing at the bottom of that boarder cross course, looking across longingly.
     
  26. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    fify LOL
     
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  27. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    And by the time the girls finished, the snow had turned heavy :cry:
     
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  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    and we'd do it all again.
    Also ended up well that year at Nats.
    Podium was Jindy , Jindy , UHS. :)
    Sydney (privates) donut .
     
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  29. climberman

    climberman CloudRide1000 Legend Ski Pass: Gold

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    TttrrrrrrreeenchTown!!!
     
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  30. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The 2016 rain event compared to the 2017 one after the first season saving dump in late July was quite different.

    2017 was actually a lot more rain. but had little impact and the replacement snow came a bit later. but recovery was so big, it's possible most people don't even know it happened.

    2016 had less rain during the entire event but flooded much more. And a good chunk of the reported mm in the PV BOM gauge actully fell as snow. With more soon after. The SC snowdepth reading was already heading way south as seen on the thursday reading just before the rain. How much damage occured remains an unknown - but it would have been smashed - but the recovery was such that there was more snow after the rain/snow that there was before. Totaly weird and only topped by the last day of 2016 dumping almost pow after noon through to last runs on the V8. And then the season peak occured after the lifts had closed. From memory there was another crazy snow event earlier that final horror long weekend with eyre 2 foot deep in fresh snow one morning before it turned to rain again.

    2017 rain event was probably the largest winter precip recorded at PV BOM in a 24 hour period. And from what I was told it only really flooded in the telemark/piper valley which was smashed hard.

    So expect anything from 20 - 120 of rain in the next 48 hours. And whatever comes next will be.
     
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  31. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bom seriously upgrading the moisture for tomorrow :( :( :(
     
  32. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Ouch...
     
  33. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Unless you found trees ;)



    On topic - moisture looks awful in the coming days. Pack a poncho...

    Or kayak....
     
  34. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us

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    Remember to read the prognosis correctly.

    It's 100% chance of more than 0.2mm rain. Potential rain 45-60mm.

    If they get 10mm rain they are still correct.
     
  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    The first number is a 50% chance of occurring.
    The second number is a 25% chance of occurring.
     
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  36. Jasper Schwarz

    Jasper Schwarz One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    These are both really good things to remember. Thanks Guys!!!!!
     
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  37. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The other difference between those two years and the two rain events was the damage done beneath the surface of the snow. I recall in spring for one of those years the snowpack was really hollow and rotten underneath, where water had flowed, and collapsed quickly as it warmed. The other year it just seemed to run off the surface, with less damage beneath.

    This year we don't actually have much of a base for it to run underneath :eek:

    However, we have to remember, even if it was washed away to 0cm at Spencers (which is not going to happen), that it is still only the second week of June. There is a long time to go yet, and I predict it will snow and we will have big systems come through:)
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  39. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    I predict a less than optimal result from this system.

     
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  40. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Yes wishful thinking
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Ensembles holding onto to what's golden, and favouring a 14-16th Juice up.
    Putting a bit of positiveity back into your Lizzie's B-Day long weekend.
    Temps look ok at this stage.
     
  42. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    This is putting the Lake back into Lake mountain.
     
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  43. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking like 5-10cm for most resorts Thursday to Saturday IMO.
    Mods wanna extend the date range?
     
  44. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Seems you have some weather forecasting skills DSNS! A few of our resident weather gurus might be getting worried.
     
  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah most of the snowfall looking like it will fall Thurs night into Friday morning.


    Not much more than 5cm, up to 10cm, but who’s gonna knock back some snow after a truckload of rain.

    Bureau’s forecast for Hotham:
     
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  46. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    A broken clock is right twice a day.
     
  47. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Someone is a glutton for punishment. ;)

    So it looks like the cold pool arrives in the Alpine Region late Thursday and departs Saturday. Though the moisture dries up Friday.

    Temps marginal IMO. But there is hope of "The Abomination Redemption". :D

    [​IMG]
     
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  48. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Did anyone come up with a name for this system? Astros Curse sounds good.
     
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  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It looks better on paper this way.;)
    There's still room for a dud too. EC 00z says GFY with a flurry at best for the 3 days.LOL:p
     
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  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    OCF Thursday:
    [​IMG]

    OCF Friday:
    [​IMG]
     
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