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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.
EC & GFS are currently in agreement on another system due around these dates:
GFS has been hinting at it for a while however like the last few I think we need to see how the next 4 days plays out.
Havent got a handle on this one yet , crystal ball is foggy for some reason. Wouldnt mind a decent fall in these dates though , got 10 days at PV starting 16th.
Still looks like it peaks too early on EC and slides away. It's still strong enough to bring something, but not as good as it could be IMO
Got to say, very meh right now on GFS
Ye.no has pack damaging deluge
I am very new to reading charts and happy to be corrected if I am missing the mark but this looks very hopeful.
At 4 days out it would be porn.
At 228 theres a way to go yet.
Lots of potential here. System starting to swing across the western Indian Ocean now. Maybe a little cut off in the Bight to start it and then a big surge from the south over the Alps.
Heres another good one to look at.
Can scroll up down left right and zoom to suit.
Yikes - 1040hPa High behind it! Doubt there will be anything much after this system for a while with that beast trailing
Still showing on EC however I am also skeptical CC, with those 2 massive highs either side.....still a long way out though, so we'll see what the next few days bring......
9' Oclock node still holding shape , so I think thats the one to follow after this Thread. If Im correct with my timing ?.
Edit just had another look and it's a week to rotate thru 90 degs on this perspective so this the on topic node.
Agrre @FourSquare04 looking bit flat till another week beyond.
Looking better today. Lots of fluctuation in the models, give it a few days yet before we can start getting a real feel for it.
After the ECL shows it's hand.
Stuck record for the season to date.
"Models having trouble with the ECL"
Sorry Claude, this is a prediction for nfip. Gonna luv em.
Thinking there will be rain associated with this one , hopefully a net gain after or between the rain.
looks like prefrontal but early days yet.
I predict Wednesday morning will be the blessing in some fresh ceremony .,
Pushing Pushing up into New England
Lots of prefrontal being progged for this one. Hard to say if the follow up will result in a net gain, but it's still a long way out. LWT gone a little meh on it, but that can change around quick. I've liked it for about a week so happy to stick with it at this stage.
Stuck record for every season ever.
Big crash this morning on the models, more prefrontal than snow. But will keep watching for said reason above, and the fact we're still a week out.
Doesn't look that wonderful on GFS this afternoon.
Lots of prefrontal, and bugger all afterwards, IMO
Still showing on EC 00UTC run this afternoon:
That looks pretty solid.
Followed by 30cm ish
Wouldn't argue with that
Looking at how previous pre-frontal has been snow this year, despite looking rather dodgy and noting how deep the fetch is on this front. I remain positive that it will remain cold enough as the air swings across SA into Vic and NSW. imo.
I cant agree with that on this mornings runs, the tropical inflow is just too strong, well progged to be too strong. The follow-up once it switches looks a beauty, but I am very suspicious of the positioning of the trailing high. This morning it's in an OK position, but this far out i've seen them ridge out more often than not. IMO there's a bigger chance of the trailing high ridging it out than sliding a little further south and giving us the good times, but there's still a chance for either to happen.
^ I'm determined to play the optimist this year
All over this one. May very well be that some clear stuff falls, but I'm going for a bit net gain.....
Axs g and GFS looking pretty darned cold and wet, yr.no says huge numbers (albeit with a bit of clear stuff on Monday but I don't see that on axs or GFS)
Anyway, watch and see for a few days...
Looks bloody cold on EC
516 levels in southern Tasmania? Brass monkey weather.
Geeze this system has some serious potential. The lead up to it is going to be horrid but if it plays out similar to current charts Tuesday/Wednesday will be close to as good as Oz gets.
What's alarming me is that the agreement in the models from almost a week out is very good. That bothers me, I'd prefer ACCESS and GFS to be off in la la land while ECM does it's usual thing by being the first to pick it up and then roughly holding its course until arrival with the other models coming into line 4-5 days out
Strong node of the LWT moving through and 5200 pushing over Tassie, nice!!
Snow perhaps at sea level in Hobart and below -5 at resorts. Mmmmmmm
EC holding strong, has had this system in its sights since the weekend.
Personally I think it's good that the models are all in agreement, increases the chances / odds
Still looking solid on 00Z EC run.
For your viewing pleasure
Starting to show at the end of the latest 4 Day'er run too........
Seriously spectacular weather.
That bom 4 dayer....out with the old and in with the new!
EC suggesting very low temps and snow late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Might be as close as POW as we ever get if it comes off.
There is something quite rare in this....
The cut-off over SW WA pictured in the 4-dayer goes-on to form the pre-frontal due Sunday/Monday. The real McCoy is tucked in the freezer to the south off it.
How's those temps over central Tas progged by GFS next Tuesday?? -6/-18/-34