Predictions 10th to 13th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.

  1. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stanley Bowl is well above 1400m... Well. And if Stirling/Buller get 20cm from this Stanley will have closer to 50cm with the wind load it recieves.
     
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wait are you thinking of going
     
  3. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    ^If that is the case, the temps hopefully will stay low to allow a base to remain on Friday, when I'm up there. :)
     
  4. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Car packed, just a question of where.

    With the low as South as it is I'm thinking buller/Stirling yet hotham on a whole generally gets a greater amount.

    Stirling and the South side of buller probably easier in a white out but parts of the hotham bc could do really well from loading. So many questions so little time.
     
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  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might be a bit patchy but nothing unbearable for a walk. be more worried about the run down in the arvo.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Absolutely! The way I read the question was 'what are the chances of skiable snow from elevations such as TBJ'... At 1230m elevation there's not going to be much base for skiing/boarding. Skiable yes... Rocks & shit... Yes! But sure, I agree Stirling will have some good gear where there's some base.
     
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  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah but those trails are only for accessing the mountain. You can skin up on 5cm at TBJ (I did it last year, might've even been less). Not really "skiable snow" in the traditional sense. And certainly by Friday the trails would've been groomed keeping the snow lower down in just that little bit better knick for the skin up.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Got it. You x-cross crowd clearly don't need much to keep you happy then! Excuse me while I jump back in my box.
     
  9. wolly

    wolly One of Us

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    watch out for buses on the road
     
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  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh no, I only ski downhill, I "skin" uphill. Stirling is essentially an XC mountain with some very good alpine terrain for those willing to work hard enough to get to it. If you're willing to work, you don't need much snow at the bottom.
     
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  11. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    If it was me i'd be looking at Wednesday and Thursday. Hotham on wednesday and Buller on Thursday when its doing better in the SW flow.
     
  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    And for what it's worth. I've just had a look at tonight's EC run... The L... Is pretty much on point for tomorrow IMO.
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    For all those thinking of going BC... Be warned.


    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in parts of the Illawarra, South Coast, Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 5:19 pm Monday, 11 July 2016.

    DAMAGING WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARDS FOR ALPINE AREAS

    SYNOPTIC SITUATION:

    A cold front over central parts of New South Wales is moving east and weakening. A second cold front will approach the state during Tuesday. Northwesterly winds will increase ahead of both of these features, before turning westerly in wake the of the second front later on Tuesday and during Wednesday morning.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h, are likely about part of the southern ranges tonight and during Tuesday, and may extend to adjacent coastal areas during Tuesday. In areas above 1800 metres winds may average 80 km/h with gusts in excess of 120 km/h.

    BLIZZARDS are possible in areas above 1700 metres.
    The National Parks Service of NSW recommends that people consider postponing back country travel until conditions improve.

    Locations which may be affected include Thredbo, Cabramurra, Selwyn, Nowra, Batemans Bay, Braidwood and Nerriga.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN20032.shtml
     
  14. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    48 hours of snow from now.
     
  15. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Yes this evolving nicely maybe more moisture at the right time for once,
     
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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    For all of those people in Melbourne on Wednesday morning, these are Jane's best places for low level snow
     
  17. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Seriously dudes.

    Axs has over 50mm around falls/Hotham from now. Bom say up to 80mm tomorrow alone. Some of this storm falls below -5, and maybe -8....

    This is better than many of you fear imho.

    50cm easy, and I'll say it again - cost he ain't here to say it and I'm pretty sure he would

    Two foot storm
     
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  18. NewTurns

    NewTurns One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe not 50cm probably 30-40cm average of all resorts
     
  20. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    FWIW BoM rainfall forecast for Snowies on Tue and Wed is only 20 mm for PB. So call it 20 cm of snow. Ultra cold air masses do not hold much moisture. Thredbo about the same and Selwyn 25 cm which seems less believable as its lower. But if you go off the Alpine forecast then its 40 for PB,Tbo 32 and Selwyn 27 - I took average of the ranges given... W
     
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  21. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I thought "mm" of rain = much higher "cm" of snow?
     
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  22. warrie

    warrie Hard Yards

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    Billy B - there's a discussion of this in a post on the front page of Weather. Some say 10 mm rain = 10 cm snow and others say 7 or 8. Since this will be an ultra cold airmass I would lean to the 10 to 1 ratio... W
     
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  23. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks.
     
  24. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM is always conservative. Check out AXS-R - the only model with resolution that allows for output which properly considers topography. Even better check out the ever increasing blobs of white cloud in the bight on the satellite image.

    Selwyn does better than Thredbo / Perisher in SW winds as its far enough north to be out of the VIC Alps rain shadow.
     
  25. Wally

    Wally One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    I work in Glen Waverley and reside in the good part of Frankston! I predict the XC skis won't be required to skate down EastLink tomorrow
     
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  26. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just spotted that the BOM are predicting a max of -6C for Thredbo Top on Wednesday!
     
  27. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    And no longer a defined 'snow above' level for Hobart on Wednesday:
    BOM's weather Summary for Hobart on Wednesday:
     
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  29. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    How so... running out of snow too quickly?
     
  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Melt during the day on the lower trails. I had a pretty sketchy run towards the very bottom of bluff spur trail last time up there (last year). And had to walk it from the trail junction back to TBJ. Not far in reality and that was on the back of only about 5cm at TBJ that morning. This should be better.
     
  31. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    3cm fresh inbound on Perisher[​IMG]
     
  32. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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    Oh ok, that would make sense. Thanks for the heads-up.
     
  33. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Minty vibe ?
     
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  34. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perisher Valley Forecast
    View the current warnings for New South Wales

    Forecast issued at 4:45 am EST on Tuesday 12 July 2016.

    Forecast for the rest of Tuesday
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Max 1
    Snow showers. Becoming windy.
    Possible rainfall: 10 to 30 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow showers, most likely from late this morning. The chance of a thunderstorm with possible hail. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h increasing to 65 to 75 km/h in the late afternoon then tending westerly in the evening.

    UV Alert from 10:50 am to 1:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

    Wednesday 13 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -7
    Max -4
    Snow showers easing.
    Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning. Winds west to northwesterly 55 to 75 km/h tending west to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the day.

    :);):(:woohoo:
     
  35. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    MetEye has some very handy moisture over the alps today. Looks like 50-100mm. Aberration?
     
  36. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't think so. Bom said up to 80mm for today (in yesterday's forecast)
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I don't see anywhere near that level of precipitation looking at the radar or satellite images.
    Still looks around 20-30cm, but if things are really good, we might just get to 40cm in some spots.
    IMO
     
  38. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thats about 3.27 Coke Can Units.
     
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  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds for people in the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
    Issued at 10:08 am EST on Tuesday 12 July 2016.

    Weather Situation
    A cold front will cross Victoria bringing strong and squally winds and very cold air to the State.

    WINDS around 50 to 60 km/h with DAMAGING peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are forecast for parts of the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts, particularly about elevated areas and with thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind gusts may also reach 110 km/h in Alpine areas.

    Highest wind gusts recorded include:

    113 km/h at Mount William
    104 km/h at Cape Nelson
    101 km/h at Mount Gellibrand
    99 km/h at Geelong
    98 km/h at Mount Buller
    94 km/h at Casterton
    91 km/h at Ballarat.
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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  42. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Chinese have them
     
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  43. Ian

    Ian Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do you reckon they'll close the road to Thredbo on Wednesday afternoon?
     
  44. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    No, or do you mean from the other side?
     
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  45. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    Next big pulse surely will turn some headlights on.

    [​IMG]
     
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  46. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  47. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

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  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    not even on a leeward mid station table at Perisher are they getting 150cms out of this.
     
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  50. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    dem modern drink bottles
    dem modern mid station tables
    dem modern snow reports.