Predictions 10th to 13th July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.

  1. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,338
    Likes Received:
    27,134
    Stanley Bowl is well above 1400m... Well. And if Stirling/Buller get 20cm from this Stanley will have closer to 50cm with the wind load it recieves.
     
  2. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,533
    Likes Received:
    2,700
    Wait are you thinking of going
     
  3. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    513
    Likes Received:
    129
    ^If that is the case, the temps hopefully will stay low to allow a base to remain on Friday, when I'm up there. :)
     
  4. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2011
    Messages:
    399
    Likes Received:
    204
    Car packed, just a question of where.

    With the low as South as it is I'm thinking buller/Stirling yet hotham on a whole generally gets a greater amount.

    Stirling and the South side of buller probably easier in a white out but parts of the hotham bc could do really well from loading. So many questions so little time.
     
    Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  5. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,338
    Likes Received:
    27,134
    Might be a bit patchy but nothing unbearable for a walk. be more worried about the run down in the arvo.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    Absolutely! The way I read the question was 'what are the chances of skiable snow from elevations such as TBJ'... At 1230m elevation there's not going to be much base for skiing/boarding. Skiable yes... Rocks & shit... Yes! But sure, I agree Stirling will have some good gear where there's some base.
     
    stridercdh likes this.
  7. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,338
    Likes Received:
    27,134
    Yeah but those trails are only for accessing the mountain. You can skin up on 5cm at TBJ (I did it last year, might've even been less). Not really "skiable snow" in the traditional sense. And certainly by Friday the trails would've been groomed keeping the snow lower down in just that little bit better knick for the skin up.
     
    stridercdh likes this.
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    Got it. You x-cross crowd clearly don't need much to keep you happy then! Excuse me while I jump back in my box.
     
  9. wolly

    wolly Dedicated Member

    Joined:
    May 29, 2002
    Messages:
    1,224
    Likes Received:
    244
    watch out for buses on the road
     
    Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  10. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,338
    Likes Received:
    27,134
    Oh no, I only ski downhill, I "skin" uphill. Stirling is essentially an XC mountain with some very good alpine terrain for those willing to work hard enough to get to it. If you're willing to work, you don't need much snow at the bottom.
     
    stridercdh and POW_hungry like this.
  11. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    17,173
    Likes Received:
    7,342
    If it was me i'd be looking at Wednesday and Thursday. Hotham on wednesday and Buller on Thursday when its doing better in the SW flow.
     
  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,338
    Likes Received:
    27,134
    And for what it's worth. I've just had a look at tonight's EC run... The L... Is pretty much on point for tomorrow IMO.
     
    IAB, AJS, TomGroggon and 1 other person like this.
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    For all those thinking of going BC... Be warned.


    SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

    for DAMAGING WINDS
    For people in parts of the Illawarra, South Coast, Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains and Australian Capital Territory Forecast Districts.

    Issued at 5:19 pm Monday, 11 July 2016.

    DAMAGING WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARDS FOR ALPINE AREAS

    SYNOPTIC SITUATION:

    A cold front over central parts of New South Wales is moving east and weakening. A second cold front will approach the state during Tuesday. Northwesterly winds will increase ahead of both of these features, before turning westerly in wake the of the second front later on Tuesday and during Wednesday morning.

    DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h, are likely about part of the southern ranges tonight and during Tuesday, and may extend to adjacent coastal areas during Tuesday. In areas above 1800 metres winds may average 80 km/h with gusts in excess of 120 km/h.

    BLIZZARDS are possible in areas above 1700 metres.
    The National Parks Service of NSW recommends that people consider postponing back country travel until conditions improve.

    Locations which may be affected include Thredbo, Cabramurra, Selwyn, Nowra, Batemans Bay, Braidwood and Nerriga.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN20032.shtml
     
  14. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    2,523
    48 hours of snow from now.
     
  15. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2010
    Messages:
    392
    Likes Received:
    239
    Yes this evolving nicely maybe more moisture at the right time for once,
     
    mick chopps and NewTurns like this.
  16. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,533
    Likes Received:
    2,700
    [​IMG]
    For all of those people in Melbourne on Wednesday morning, these are Jane's best places for low level snow
     
  17. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    2,523
    Seriously dudes.

    Axs has over 50mm around falls/Hotham from now. Bom say up to 80mm tomorrow alone. Some of this storm falls below -5, and maybe -8....

    This is better than many of you fear imho.

    50cm easy, and I'll say it again - cost he ain't here to say it and I'm pretty sure he would

    Two foot storm
     
    smitty484, IAB, mick chopps and 9 others like this.
  18. NewTurns

    NewTurns Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2013
    Messages:
    830
    Likes Received:
    1,406
  19. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    3,533
    Likes Received:
    2,700
    Maybe not 50cm probably 30-40cm average of all resorts
     
  20. warrie

    warrie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2008
    Messages:
    403
    Likes Received:
    67
    FWIW BoM rainfall forecast for Snowies on Tue and Wed is only 20 mm for PB. So call it 20 cm of snow. Ultra cold air masses do not hold much moisture. Thredbo about the same and Selwyn 25 cm which seems less believable as its lower. But if you go off the Alpine forecast then its 40 for PB,Tbo 32 and Selwyn 27 - I took average of the ranges given... W
     
    Ted Harper and POW_hungry like this.
  21. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3,155
    Likes Received:
    1,672
    I thought "mm" of rain = much higher "cm" of snow?
     
    Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  22. warrie

    warrie Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2008
    Messages:
    403
    Likes Received:
    67
    Billy B - there's a discussion of this in a post on the front page of Weather. Some say 10 mm rain = 10 cm snow and others say 7 or 8. Since this will be an ultra cold airmass I would lean to the 10 to 1 ratio... W
     
    Cuddles likes this.
  23. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3,155
    Likes Received:
    1,672
    Thanks.
     
  24. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    17,173
    Likes Received:
    7,342

    BOM is always conservative. Check out AXS-R - the only model with resolution that allows for output which properly considers topography. Even better check out the ever increasing blobs of white cloud in the bight on the satellite image.

    Selwyn does better than Thredbo / Perisher in SW winds as its far enough north to be out of the VIC Alps rain shadow.
     
  25. Wally81

    Wally81 Active Member
    Season Pass Silver

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2010
    Messages:
    409
    Likes Received:
    154
    I work in Glen Waverley and reside in the good part of Frankston! I predict the XC skis won't be required to skate down EastLink tomorrow
     
    Jellybeans1000 likes this.
  26. IAB

    IAB Addicted Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2005
    Messages:
    6,487
    Likes Received:
    2,558
    Just spotted that the BOM are predicting a max of -6C for Thredbo Top on Wednesday!
     
  27. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,081
    Likes Received:
    3,010
    VFL (Arctic Park)
     
    skiingtk and Edgecrusher like this.
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    10,682
    Likes Received:
    6,453
    And no longer a defined 'snow above' level for Hobart on Wednesday:
    BOM's weather Summary for Hobart on Wednesday:
     
    IAB likes this.
  29. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    513
    Likes Received:
    129
    How so... running out of snow too quickly?
     
  30. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,338
    Likes Received:
    27,134
    Melt during the day on the lower trails. I had a pretty sketchy run towards the very bottom of bluff spur trail last time up there (last year). And had to walk it from the trail junction back to TBJ. Not far in reality and that was on the back of only about 5cm at TBJ that morning. This should be better.
     
  31. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    333
    Likes Received:
    244
    3cm fresh inbound on Perisher[​IMG]
     
  32. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    513
    Likes Received:
    129
    Oh ok, that would make sense. Thanks for the heads-up.
     
  33. luvthabumps

    luvthabumps Addicted Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2006
    Messages:
    8,243
    Likes Received:
    2,464

    Minty vibe ?
     
    Karicta likes this.
  34. Nidecker

    Nidecker Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2009
    Messages:
    2,227
    Likes Received:
    972
    Perisher Valley Forecast
    View the current warnings for New South Wales

    Forecast issued at 4:45 am EST on Tuesday 12 July 2016.

    Forecast for the rest of Tuesday
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Max 1
    Snow showers. Becoming windy.
    Possible rainfall: 10 to 30 mm
    Chance of any rain: 100%[​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow showers, most likely from late this morning. The chance of a thunderstorm with possible hail. Winds northwesterly 50 to 70 km/h increasing to 65 to 75 km/h in the late afternoon then tending westerly in the evening.

    UV Alert from 10:50 am to 1:30 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 4 [Moderate]

    Wednesday 13 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -7
    Max -4
    Snow showers easing.
    Possible rainfall: 5 to 15 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Alpine Area area
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning. Winds west to northwesterly 55 to 75 km/h tending west to southwesterly 25 to 35 km/h during the day.

    :);):(:woohoo:
     
  35. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2013
    Messages:
    322
    Likes Received:
    387
    MetEye has some very handy moisture over the alps today. Looks like 50-100mm. Aberration?
     
  36. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    2,523
    Don't think so. Bom said up to 80mm for today (in yesterday's forecast)
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
    I don't see anywhere near that level of precipitation looking at the radar or satellite images.
    Still looks around 20-30cm, but if things are really good, we might just get to 40cm in some spots.
    IMO
     
  38. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,081
    Likes Received:
    3,010
    Thats about 3.27 Coke Can Units.
     
    MarkV, Chondro, glengary and 3 others like this.
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds for people in the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
    Issued at 10:08 am EST on Tuesday 12 July 2016.

    Weather Situation
    A cold front will cross Victoria bringing strong and squally winds and very cold air to the State.

    WINDS around 50 to 60 km/h with DAMAGING peak gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are forecast for parts of the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country, North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts, particularly about elevated areas and with thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind gusts may also reach 110 km/h in Alpine areas.

    Highest wind gusts recorded include:

    113 km/h at Mount William
    104 km/h at Cape Nelson
    101 km/h at Mount Gellibrand
    99 km/h at Geelong
    98 km/h at Mount Buller
    94 km/h at Casterton
    91 km/h at Ballarat.
     
  40. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
  41. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    64,497
    Likes Received:
    17,326
    mick chopps and Claude Cat like this.
  42. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    2,523
    The Chinese have them
     
    Stiffler likes this.
  43. Ian

    Ian Active Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2002
    Messages:
    352
    Likes Received:
    153
    Do you reckon they'll close the road to Thredbo on Wednesday afternoon?
     
  44. telecrag

    telecrag Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2007
    Messages:
    19,019
    Likes Received:
    15,262
    No, or do you mean from the other side?
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  45. Jeffb

    Jeffb Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    99
    Likes Received:
    234
    Next big pulse surely will turn some headlights on.

    [​IMG]
     
    7wombathead likes this.
  46. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Dedicated Member
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    3,155
    Likes Received:
    1,672
  47. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    513
    Likes Received:
    129
  48. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
    Moderator Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    92,011
    Likes Received:
    28,682
  49. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    50,338
    Likes Received:
    27,134
    not even on a leeward mid station table at Perisher are they getting 150cms out of this.
     
    POW_hungry and Claude Cat like this.
  50. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
    Season Pass Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    10,928
    Likes Received:
    7,573
    dem modern drink bottles
    dem modern mid station tables
    dem modern snow reports.