Predictions 10th to 13th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.

  1. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    99
    Likes Received:
    234
    Around 1130. PM tonight precipitation/snow rates should be full on.
     
  2. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    71,076
    Likes Received:
    51,597
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    dem ignorant gappers who believe blatant social media hype reports.
     
  3. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    18,271
    Likes Received:
    547
    Location:
    Melbourne, Vic
    Probably see some around Kmart on Burwood/Blackburn as this is the highest point in suburban Melbourne.
     
  4. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,942
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Location:
    Melbourne Australia
    surrey hills area is about 120m ASL as you mentioned Snorkler.
    The closer to the dandenongs the more likely.
    of course there could be none anywhere other than the old VFL park site just for fun.. and they want to knock Etihad down ...:mad:
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,278
    Likes Received:
    50,522
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Yeh my old place in Burwood East was 100m from there and I had snow in Aug/Sep 1995
     
  6. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    71,076
    Likes Received:
    51,597
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    Arthurs Seat would be a chance I'd have thought?
     
  7. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,942
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Location:
    Melbourne Australia
    yes for sure
     
  8. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2006
    Messages:
    71,076
    Likes Received:
    51,597
    Location:
    The barber's chair
    fire up the chair lift...
     
  9. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,942
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Location:
    Melbourne Australia
    Its the Mount Lofty of the South!
     
    Corduroyqueen likes this.
  10. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    18,271
    Likes Received:
    547
    Location:
    Melbourne, Vic
    Maybe I'll see some in doncaster, sitting on the hill behind Balwyn North, have achieved a little cooling over that hill before hitting us. Doncaster Hill is only slightly below Burwood East but the parking lot is higher.
     
  11. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,942
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Location:
    Melbourne Australia
    Maybe Snorkler , but a lot of foam in the form of heat is generated from Westfield Doncaster ...
    All of those bay maries full of food , and store lights.
     
    Snorkler likes this.
  12. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    30,942
    Likes Received:
    4,298
    Location:
    Melbourne Australia
    She canna take any more cap'n
    [​IMG]
     
    dmz, IAB, NewTurns and 2 others like this.
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,916
    Likes Received:
    21,654
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    FROM BOM
    Hobart area

    Partly cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers and snow flurries. Snow settling to around 100 metres in the morning. Possible hail in the morning. Winds
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  14. skiingtk

    skiingtk Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2011
    Messages:
    21
    Likes Received:
    4
    Location:
    Menai,Sydney
    ;)
    Claude sounds like you lived near Worthing Ave...off high st...;)
     
  15. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    99
    Likes Received:
    234




    [​IMG]
     
  16. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    559
    Likes Received:
    196
    Location:
    Frankston
    At around what time do we expect the bulk of the moisture to reach the Vic alps, specifically Buller/Stirling? Seems to have been somewhat of a fizzer as far as precip is concerned. Or am I being impatient...?
     
    TheCheese likes this.
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,278
    Likes Received:
    50,522
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    I think this is good as it gets IMO
    You'll periods of snow showers into tomorrow.
     
    stridercdh likes this.
  18. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    559
    Likes Received:
    196
    Location:
    Frankston
    Thanks CC. I was really hoping for something to ski on by Friday at Stirling.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,916
    Likes Received:
    21,654
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    What makes you think it's a fizzer?
    We're probably about halfway through IMO. Buller has done well by the obs here and on the radar. Maybe 10-15cm? Hard to say with the wind. Expect frequent (possibly heavy) falls throughout tonight and into tomorrow AM.
    Looks like another few bands moving through with some good falls around 10-11pm tonight IMO.
     
  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,278
    Likes Received:
    50,522
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Remember this was never a "quantity" system. You'll still probably have enough to have fun.
     
  21. stridercdh

    stridercdh Addicted

    Joined:
    May 15, 2011
    Messages:
    559
    Likes Received:
    196
    Location:
    Frankston
    I guess I feel that way because it's been deceptively dry here on the Peninsula for most of the day and the rain radar looks scattered across the alps. Fingers crossed for more.
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,278
    Likes Received:
    50,522
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Radar doesn't give a clear picture of what's happening over the Alps.
     
    stridercdh likes this.
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    113,278
    Likes Received:
    50,522
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
    Latest Vic BOM saying snow down to 500m tonight and 300m tomorrow
     
    skiingtk and stridercdh like this.
  24. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,869
    Likes Received:
    18,427
    Location:
    South Co.
    Tropical feed looks to be getting involved with the #bigfreeze for NSW.
    Potential to go off it's nut if this continues.
     
    Cuddles likes this.
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,916
    Likes Received:
    21,654
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    A lot of high level cloud in there. The patches you see just North of the Dividing Range are frontal, they're just overlapping.
     
    nfip likes this.
  26. Zimboo

    Zimboo A Local

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2014
    Messages:
    6,831
    Likes Received:
    2,782
    From BOM - Perisher currently -3.4 and 20.4mm in the can thus far today.
    Sorry, just realised I'm in the prediction tread not obs.
     
    Cuddles likes this.
  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,869
    Likes Received:
    18,427
    Location:
    South Co.
    I observe the Rangers are the biz so far and predict they going to be a lot of fun. :cheers:
     
    Zimboo likes this.
  28. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,869
    Likes Received:
    18,427
    Location:
    South Co.
    Serious question.
    So high level tropical feed meets cold uppers shown here. ?

     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,916
    Likes Received:
    21,654
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Correct, and higher. It's an upper level trough - so as you say it's sitting in the upper weather atmosphere. At 500mb you'll definitely get the cold frontal air mixing with the trough but largely the frontal air is often drier at this level.

    We've had a mix of Cirrus & Cirrostratus passing over Sydney all day. Even some alto-stratus in thicker parts. These are from maybe 6000m right up into the jetstreams ~10,000m. And in the lower range of that you'll get rain/virga but unlikely it will have much input into this front, for the alps atleast.
     
    #529 POW_hungry, Jul 12, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2016
    SnowBound and nfip like this.
  30. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2015
    Messages:
    366
    Likes Received:
    275
    Gauge died at 5.30pm
     
  31. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,065
    Likes Received:
    4,024
    Not sure about that. Moved with last update
     
  32. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,780
    Likes Received:
    3,059
    Location:
    Wollongong
    Looks to be a touch too far north but I wouldn't be surprised if Selwyn does really well overnight due to this interaction....
     
  33. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    99
    Likes Received:
    234
    Its getting a gnarly sting jet appearance in the tail of that low. Big blow.
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,869
    Likes Received:
    18,427
    Location:
    South Co.
    Maybe not.
    A little more reading and the cloud types Pow mentions don't seem to contain enough moisture & when they hit the cold drier air doesn't help much.
    Hence the Virga aka dry thunderstorm .
    http://weather.about.com/od/v/g/virga.htm
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,916
    Likes Received:
    21,654
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yep, that's where NW Tassie's meat and potatoes are.
     
  36. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,869
    Likes Received:
    18,427
    Location:
    South Co.
    Soz gang above of mine should be in obs or bbq.
     
  37. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2001
    Messages:
    5,780
    Likes Received:
    3,059
    Location:
    Wollongong
    I observe Canberra forecast for Wednesday has the Snow icon present:

    Wednesday 13 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 7
    Showers, possible snow. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
    Chance of any rain: 50% [​IMG]
    Canberra area
    Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers in the morning with possible snow. Winds west to northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h tending north to northwesterly and becoming light in the evening.
     
  38. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2016
    Messages:
    99
    Likes Received:
    234
    Was a big 4inchs ha, hope you enjoyed the white stuff.
     
    Karicta likes this.
  39. jorgo

    jorgo Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2007
    Messages:
    156
    Likes Received:
    6
    Much left in this for tonight?
     
  40. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,065
    Likes Received:
    4,024
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,916
    Likes Received:
    21,654
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Not much more than a few cms at best IMO, atleast for mainland resorts. Pressures up to 1022hPa now, which tells me she's running on empty.
     
    #541 POW_hungry, Jul 13, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2016
    mick chopps and Claude Cat like this.
  42. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    6,065
    Likes Received:
    4,024
    I'd say everyone got this right
    No matter what was predicted, it happened somewhere
     
    K_Bird likes this.
  43. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2011
    Messages:
    5,767
    Likes Received:
    3,778
    ...NEXT!
     
    K_Bird and MarkV like this.