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Predictions 10th to 13th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.

  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    EC looks a lot colder than GFS
    IMO
     
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  2. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Still peaking a bit too early to be ideal, but improving by the day. Going off GFS it looks like hanging around a couple of days so slow and steady accumulation is the mantra here. If prefrontal is minimised could be a net gain.
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models have struggled with NW infeeds this season. GFS has enjoyed progging them 5-7+ days out, but hasn't had any luck nailing them - at least not in the last month IMO.

    I am inclined to think we'll see a downgrade on pre-frontal for this event.
     
  4. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Whilst it may last for 72 hours, 'slow and steady' is not anything like how I would describe it....
     
  5. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Date range may need extending a day or two either side.....meanwhile G-Frog-S seems to think it's going to slide and smash NZ......

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Other models such as CMC & NAVGEM falling in line with EC
    IMO
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Other models such as CMC & NAVGEM falling in line with EC
    IMO
     
  8. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Groundhog day ^^^
     
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  9. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I caught up with @janesweather this morning and she was pretty psyched about Tuesday. Not so much about the intervening period though.
     
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  10. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    Sharp deformation.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Juicebiglow

    Juicebiglow Addicted

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    I know this is predictions, but I observe it is snowing now and everyone is more excited about next week....

    I am heading from Melbourne to Kangaroo Valley Wed next week and will have to fight the urge to turn off the Hume before making it to Albury

    I predict it will be all time as I will miss it.
     
  12. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Hard Yards

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    If that's Tuesday's system on that map in the central Indian Ocean it's looking cold. And the one approaching Africa. Wow. Very cold. Hope it holds.
     
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  13. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Looks very conventional.

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The model is dated 12JUL. The system is depicted over SE Aus in that view.
     
  15. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I think he is referring to the that system foretasted SW of Africa arriving here around the 19th JUL. The wave of cold air vortexes.

    And I still don't mind for the main range.

    700 hpa -5
    500 hpa -21
     
  16. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Reckon southern WA is going to be about as cold as it can get (apart from under winter highs/frosts)
    Snow a lock on the Stirling's imo.
    And no teeny little dusting either I think.
     
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  17. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, Saturday is looking like proper winter (for southern WA). Interesting system, almost sneaking up on the west coast, then bang, cold and most with the deep southerly fetch ahead of the trailing high.
     
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  18. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    [​IMG]

    Please, everybody, read this book!

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Just been told that fluffy white stuff is hammering down at Hotham.
     
  20. BenLomond Iceman

    BenLomond Iceman One of Us

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    big snow for us - yip yip :woohoo:
     
  21. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Less pre frontal rain on GFS this morning, mostly pre frontal snow. Could be large...
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Quite likely. The SW will shiver through Saturday. Coldest day of the year IMO.
    EC & GFS both going for snow on the Stirlings. Best chance will be Saturday PM.
    Moisture looks okay for 3-5cm to settle on the summit. Snow down to 900m
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC & GFS 12Z both have some agreement of the high ridging in pretty swiftly from Tuesday arvo but still looks bloody cold.
    Pre-frontal looks a little better on the latest runs. Still has some work to do though.
     
  24. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    I'm inclined to invert this now, and lower the prefrontal rain to more like 10-20mm
     
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  25. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'll raise you another 5cm on my figure and leave the rain as is :)
    Major slide SE and bomb potential imo.
     
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  26. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Yeah access doesn't love it, yet... GFS loves it.
     
  27. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Yikes - 12UTC EC run!

    Tassie is going to get wiped off the map

    [​IMG]
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think, 30-40cm is possible from Monday evening through to early Wednesday morning. Pre-frontal will all be but forgotten about IMO.

    Snow down to 600m for NSW & VIC by Tuesday arvo.
    Tas snow down to 400m possibly lower at times.
     
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  29. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    High looks to ridge in pretty hard by Tuesday, then we enter a prolonged, stable period of weather
    [​IMG]
     
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  30. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Axs g has -18 700hpa temps over sthrn Tasmania Tuesday night

    And -14 (and a bubble of -16) over the alps

    No PF
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    snow making for dayz from Wednesday onwards.
     
  32. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Fair bit of prefrontal still progged, but then a really cold follow-up. I still dont think the high positioning is 100% optimal and leaves the tail-end of the system prone to being ridged out, which may limit the snowfall on the back-end. If that trailing high was a couple hundred km further south jesus we would be looking at something all-time, but it doesnt look like wanting to budge. LWT is brewing this one up about 10-11 oclock at the moment and it'll surge towards our part of the world in the next few days. I would be looking at >a foot to low levels after prefrontal rain.
     
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  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Concur
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    It looks a whole lot better on GFS this morning, falling into line with EC

     
  35. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only an idiot would disagree :p
     
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  36. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Do you trust that high? Really? I know GFS is the hack model, but just as it gets to us and goes into full mode, the high jumps northwards and opens up another center and wants to go into ridge mode.
     
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  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    The high certainly makes it ridgy.
    Still looks better / logical on EC, but GFS is getting there.
     
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  39. Me+3

    Me+3 Hard Yards

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    what's the view on wind speed over this period ?
    BOM suggesting only 20-23 k's/h in NSW.
    I predict it'll be much worse. Thoughts ?
     
  40. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    'much worse' sounds accurate
     
    #90 Wardy, Jul 6, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2016
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    60-70kms/h for resort level. Stronger gusts. It's upwards of blizzard conditions, no worries about that!
     
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  42. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Look how tight the gradient is on those charts. Draw your own conclusions. ;)
     
  43. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    7 days out and the BOM is already predicting serious cold for Tuesday, just need the moisture.
     
  44. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Generally, super cold = quite dry, from experience.

    IMO
     
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  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    00Z EC

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Just about at the point we can lock this in. IMO
     
  46. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Pushing 100KM/h+ at times with ease - there will be windhold no doubt about it
     
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  47. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Agreed - it has been there every run since about the 1st on EC.......
     
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  48. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yeap, the lower the fall line the lower the quantity. Bean that way for all of my 60 something years.
     
  49. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS
    [​IMG]

    516 thickness in Hobart?
     
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  50. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, and as I said above, -18 at 700hpa - that's uber cold....
     
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