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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.
EC looks a lot colder than GFS
Still peaking a bit too early to be ideal, but improving by the day. Going off GFS it looks like hanging around a couple of days so slow and steady accumulation is the mantra here. If prefrontal is minimised could be a net gain.
Models have struggled with NW infeeds this season. GFS has enjoyed progging them 5-7+ days out, but hasn't had any luck nailing them - at least not in the last month IMO.
I am inclined to think we'll see a downgrade on pre-frontal for this event.
Whilst it may last for 72 hours, 'slow and steady' is not anything like how I would describe it....
Date range may need extending a day or two either side.....meanwhile G-Frog-S seems to think it's going to slide and smash NZ......
Other models such as CMC & NAVGEM falling in line with EC
Groundhog day ^^^
I caught up with @janesweather this morning and she was pretty psyched about Tuesday. Not so much about the intervening period though.
I know this is predictions, but I observe it is snowing now and everyone is more excited about next week....
I am heading from Melbourne to Kangaroo Valley Wed next week and will have to fight the urge to turn off the Hume before making it to Albury
I predict it will be all time as I will miss it.
If that's Tuesday's system on that map in the central Indian Ocean it's looking cold. And the one approaching Africa. Wow. Very cold. Hope it holds.
Looks very conventional.
The model is dated 12JUL. The system is depicted over SE Aus in that view.
I think he is referring to the that system foretasted SW of Africa arriving here around the 19th JUL. The wave of cold air vortexes.
And I still don't mind for the main range.
700 hpa -5
500 hpa -21
Reckon southern WA is going to be about as cold as it can get (apart from under winter highs/frosts)
Snow a lock on the Stirling's imo.
And no teeny little dusting either I think.
Yep, Saturday is looking like proper winter (for southern WA). Interesting system, almost sneaking up on the west coast, then bang, cold and most with the deep southerly fetch ahead of the trailing high.
Please, everybody, read this book!
Just been told that fluffy white stuff is hammering down at Hotham.
big snow for us - yip yip
Less pre frontal rain on GFS this morning, mostly pre frontal snow. Could be large...
Quite likely. The SW will shiver through Saturday. Coldest day of the year IMO.
EC & GFS both going for snow on the Stirlings. Best chance will be Saturday PM.
Moisture looks okay for 3-5cm to settle on the summit. Snow down to 900m
EC & GFS 12Z both have some agreement of the high ridging in pretty swiftly from Tuesday arvo but still looks bloody cold.
Pre-frontal looks a little better on the latest runs. Still has some work to do though.
I'm inclined to invert this now, and lower the prefrontal rain to more like 10-20mm
I'll raise you another 5cm on my figure and leave the rain as is
Major slide SE and bomb potential imo.
Yeah access doesn't love it, yet... GFS loves it.
Yikes - 12UTC EC run!
Tassie is going to get wiped off the map
I think, 30-40cm is possible from Monday evening through to early Wednesday morning. Pre-frontal will all be but forgotten about IMO.
Snow down to 600m for NSW & VIC by Tuesday arvo.
Tas snow down to 400m possibly lower at times.
High looks to ridge in pretty hard by Tuesday, then we enter a prolonged, stable period of weather
Axs g has -18 700hpa temps over sthrn Tasmania Tuesday night
And -14 (and a bubble of -16) over the alps
snow making for dayz from Wednesday onwards.
Fair bit of prefrontal still progged, but then a really cold follow-up. I still dont think the high positioning is 100% optimal and leaves the tail-end of the system prone to being ridged out, which may limit the snowfall on the back-end. If that trailing high was a couple hundred km further south jesus we would be looking at something all-time, but it doesnt look like wanting to budge. LWT is brewing this one up about 10-11 oclock at the moment and it'll surge towards our part of the world in the next few days. I would be looking at >a foot to low levels after prefrontal rain.
It looks a whole lot better on GFS this morning, falling into line with EC
Only an idiot would disagree
Do you trust that high? Really? I know GFS is the hack model, but just as it gets to us and goes into full mode, the high jumps northwards and opens up another center and wants to go into ridge mode.
Stay on topic.
The high certainly makes it ridgy.
Still looks better / logical on EC, but GFS is getting there.
what's the view on wind speed over this period ?
BOM suggesting only 20-23 k's/h in NSW.
I predict it'll be much worse. Thoughts ?
'much worse' sounds accurate
60-70kms/h for resort level. Stronger gusts. It's upwards of blizzard conditions, no worries about that!
Look how tight the gradient is on those charts. Draw your own conclusions.
7 days out and the BOM is already predicting serious cold for Tuesday, just need the moisture.
Generally, super cold = quite dry, from experience.
Just about at the point we can lock this in. IMO
Pushing 100KM/h+ at times with ease - there will be windhold no doubt about it
Agreed - it has been there every run since about the 1st on EC.......
Yeap, the lower the fall line the lower the quantity. Bean that way for all of my 60 something years.
516 thickness in Hobart?
Yep, and as I said above, -18 at 700hpa - that's uber cold....