Predictions 10th to 13th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.

  1. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Might buck the usual trend.

    Is it just me or is the progression of the trailing high questionable.
    Goes from classic WA stalling position to ridging hard.
     
  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS continues to 'come around' with resort-snow progged for 7am Monday (pre-frontal). Snow down to 1500m for Monday IMO.
    Just need a further upgrade for Sunday eve's portion of the pre-frontal.

    Progged uppers for Monday AM are 0/-6/-21, with precip as below:
    [​IMG]
     
  3. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    Have seen it happen before - August 2008 springs to mind. Different result though - it was a week of front after front with snow to ~600m.

    I'm starting to get a little less worried about the prefrontal - more likely to be snow than rain. The cold air being sucked over WA by the cut-off low will hopefully swing around to the leading edge of the low as it moves over south-eastern Australia. I'm quietly optimistic the prefrontal will give us a net gain. Then by Tuesday the cold air hits hard, another cold blast. Maybe a little dry but uppers look nice so could be a surprise.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's not really unusual it's just that the cut-off over the SW-WA is the dominant feature in the Horse Latitudes this weekend, as far as Aus is concerned.
    Personally, I think we won't know the extent of the ridging (on Tuesday 12th) until this Saturday when this cut-off plays out.
    Significant cooling is likely for southern WA this weekend so we may see less ridging by the start of next week which I feel will work in the favour of a prolonged set-up in the SE.

    That said, I think we also have to consider pressure is'nt the best for significant falls as it doesn't really get <1010hPa over the alps this system.
    For me, the beauty is very much so in the cold air for this system.
     
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  5. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Even slidier this morning....
     
  6. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Post reminds me of those kids books - "That's not my .....".

    That's not my cold break, it's too slidey.
    That's not my following high - it's too ridgey.
     
  7. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    Bit of a downgrade this am. Good news is with a downgrade this far out plenty of time for an upgrade.
    Still 15-25cm across the resorts IMO
     
  8. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    5440 line is snow down to what elevation generally speaking? 1600m?
     
  9. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    I still don't mind GFS
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks fine. A typical model swing IMO.

    It's not my fault it's raining - it's too forecasty.
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EDIT: 'swing' isn;t the right word here. Adjustment is better.
     
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  12. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like this more this morning. Trailing high is in a better position than yesterday. Very cold, 3 days of SW blast.
     
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  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Blast me:
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It has the Monday night drive 'Tuesday' potential imo.

    Hmm.
     
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  15. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Looks like pre-frontal r&*n until mid-late Monday afternoon.
     
  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO no real change in EC.
     
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  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    GFS perhaps a little better, although the risk of prefrontal seems higher IMO

     
  18. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Speak to Chopps, im out.
     
  19. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    There has been prefrontal from the beginning of this one, quite a bit of it. Should end up OK though looking at this mornings charts.
     
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  20. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    A quote from my contact at the BoM:

    "Almost no serious forecaster pays any attention to GFS these days, it's pretty much irrelevant"

    Sorry Frog.
     
  21. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I very like this system so far.
    IMO Monday will be a bit like yesterday (wet snow) but Tuesday - Wednesday will be a big dump of beautiful dry snow.
    Highly likely to get most if not all lifts going throughout the resorts by the following weekend.
     
  22. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Already locked that in.

    Still very new to this but Is no one worried about the high ridging more and the moisture drying up?

    Also with GFS allowing viewing at shorter time increments, dose this not provide insight where other models do not?
     
  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, I only look at it to confirm EC runs.
    I don't think EC has budged on this one in several days.
     
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  24. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Boo
     
  25. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Some say insight, I say noise
     
  26. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    It's all about how you use the data.

    If using that extra time-step you can see the cold air moving in by that small increment, it is useful instead of jumping from a larger time-step and seeing it go from warm to cold. Just regarding timing etc.

    Getting yourself familiar with all models and the strengths/weaknesses is the best approach.

    Re BOM quotes regarding GFS, well if they got their own 10-day model physics up to scratch maybe I'd take note.. (I do hear that ACCESS G is now performing well)?
     
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  27. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    #4 day rule. All of them.
     
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  28. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    So whats the progression for working out leave prior to 4 days out

    LWT/Spag/Tropopause -> Access R/EC -> 4 dayer

    *sickies almost not possible anymore as they have finally worked out my tendency to drive long distances for board related activities.
     
    #128 neck_deep, Jul 7, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2016
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  29. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Self-employment?
     
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  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sometimes I wonder where BOM draw their concluded forecasts from so I guess every dog has it's day. Def agree it's not a reliable source, but it's still a source.
    To play the devils advocate I'd say GFS done well in the last 6 months or so. Software upgrade?
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IIRC BOM use EC first & AXS 2nd. I don't even know if they seriously look at GFS.

    IMO GFS has been better this year. Yes, there was upgrade in the model in May.
     
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  33. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Longer if most align, wouldn't be able to 7-10+ day swell forecasts otherwise :)
     
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  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Ok - we're all straying off topic. ;)
     
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  35. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Its not a wondering cold pool so it must be a fizzing slider.:puke:
    [​IMG]
     
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  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Lock stock and two smoking barrels, looks epic to me.:whistle:
     
  37. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    GFS has been better at picking events 240 hrs out.

    ACCESS R is always the best within 72 hrs IMO.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Not even slightly. IMO
     
  39. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    And within 72 hours out, all are pretty good, AXS has the best resolution in our part of the world though.
     
  40. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

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    That chart says ... wax sunday, drive monday, ski tuesday
     
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  41. Adricat

    Adricat One of Us

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    That's my plan.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    4-dayer looks the dog's bollocks IMO.
     
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  43. jorgo

    jorgo Hard Yards

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    Is the wind likely to cause closures for Tuesday?
     
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  44. warrie

    warrie Addicted

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    Blizzards Tue/Wed - look at those tight isobars - IMO. But BoM has winds only 25 to 30 kmh for Perisher and 40 at Hotham. Let's see what the update is at 4.30......W
     
    #144 warrie, Jul 7, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2016
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    As discussed a few days ago, yes. Blizzard conditions.
     
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  46. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Just wait for November 28th..... Game on.

    Oh and Monday at knock off if temps behave themselves
     
    #146 neck_deep, Jul 7, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2016
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    For what it's worth...;)
    [​IMG]
     
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  48. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Not quite EPIC IMO as it's sliding SE + prefrontal is a concern but hot damn, still a mean mother of a system. Looks to be peaking in the bight at around 960hPa. If only it was moving more E rather than SE....
     
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  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Swell allows more time...sometimes.
    Eg. Swell forecast to originate near heard island 4 days out. 4 plus 2 more days to make landfall in Victoria.
    The roaring 40s allow more room for propagation if you get my meaning.
    How a system translates to snow require many more variables to align than that of swell.
     
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  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    looked that way for a few days.
    A decent dump of very good quality snow after a some pre-frontal r**n.
     
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