Predictions 10th to 13th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.

  1. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    IF only it was peaking about 200-300km east (right over Tassie) it would be on for young an old, an all time system for the record books indeed!
     
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  2. MarkV

    MarkV One of Us

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    Leave form submitted. I predict a trip to Hotham coming on.
     
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  3. fmdc9

    fmdc9 Hard Yards

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    which day are you predicting will be good?
     
  4. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    ^^^ Tuesday and Wednesday (no work), Thursday (work), Friday - Sunday (no work)
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    200/300 clicks? Bugger all difference there... The Low actually intensifies on it's way southward, it's really just the ridgey set-up working against it on the models. moisture isn't enough to make it all time IMO but it sure it looks impressive on the chart.
     
  6. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  7. chriscross

    chriscross One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Have to say that looks promising. Just made a booking for Weds night. Bring it on.
     
  8. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The cold fetch still says to me that pre frontal will be colder then expected. Hope I'm right with this call. As it is a prediction forum I will go a net gain of over 30cm for Buller, 20 for Baw Baw and 40 for the big ones.
     
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  9. warrie

    warrie Addicted

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    Bom has Hotham winds up to 65 kmh on Mon, 60 all day Tue and down to 30 wed pm. For Perisher its a max of 55 on Mon, 50 down to 25 on Tue and as low as 15 wed pm by which time the big high is almost overhead...W
     
  10. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    @SAsurfa could we be looking at an all time Bells/Winki swell out of this system? Gives me that impression on the charts with a large SSW swell and NW winds (albeit strong to gale force)
     
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  11. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Looking almost identical IMO - don't see that too often
     
  12. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    IMO possibly a minor upgrade on EC 00UTC run:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Monday night into Tuesday looks good......
     
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  13. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Slightly less moisture,slightly cooler imo
     
  14. warrie

    warrie Addicted

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    Multipyling by 3.6 to convert m/s into kmh gives some pause for thought. Alps at 90 to 108 kmh at 1500 m in second green band. Gusts at Thredbo Top could hit 130 kmh....W
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not much movement day to day for Tuesday IMO. Monday still looks like a dicey (wet) one and beginning to look locked in IMO.
    Tuesday isn't going to be a kind day on the hill. Snow-nado for all resorts.

    Like me, Yr.no loves Tuesday (although I think it's largely overstated!).:metun:
    [​IMG]
     
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  16. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Swell arrives as it goes WSW imo.
    Good for my local at least
     
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  17. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tuesday is THE day.
     
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  18. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    On Janes weather report tonight she suggested the possibility of snow down to 300m for VIC on tuesday for this event.

    Must stress. POSSIBILITY.
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sea level snow is a real possibility for Southern Tas so easily possible IMO.
     
  20. skimax

    skimax Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    She just said that on channel 7 . Must be true
     
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  21. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    -32/-14/-2

    The 700hpa temp is uber cold for this part of the world
     
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  22. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    This will be a once every few years type system in terms of low level snow
     
  23. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    BOM Tuesday Melbourne Forecast:

    Tuesday 12 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 6
    Max 11
    Showers. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 6 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Melbourne area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers. The chance of hail and thunder. Possible snow on the Dandenong Ranges. Winds northerly 25 to 40 km/h turning gusty westerly during the morning.

    Don't see that too often......
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    -7/-19/-38 for hobart (Tuesday 4pm).
    That's snow for Hobart.
     
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  25. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Tricky one, when the swell is largest and strongest winds aren't the best, as it builds Tuesday ahead of the change and Wednesday afternoon would be my pick. Also structure has changed a little so swell not epic.
     
  26. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    Totally, it's my job ;)
     
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  27. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes bro. It is. You know what to do.
     
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  28. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perfect Westernport conditions
     
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  29. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wednesday looks best Axs!
    But weds Thurs have a big X for possibility. :(
     
    #179 The Plowking, Jul 7, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2016
  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It is?
    Enlighten me :)
     
  31. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Totally.
    Big double ups right on the high if WSW.
     
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  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like a ripper for Buller imo, late Monday-weds.
    Nice bit of lingering cold air for a few days after too. Surface on and off piste should be great, for days after in the BC
     
  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    We've already had a pretty good low level event this season too. :)
    I predict you should bring your additive if driving a diesel to Hotham Tuesday, and don't park at H.Central.
     
  34. ice_man

    ice_man One of Us

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    First low level snow event this year, I can't go looking for low level snow as I was in the tropics.

    If this event comes off I can't go looking for low level snow this time either...





    ...as I will be at high levels skiing it!!! :p
     
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  35. SAsurfa

    SAsurfa One of Us

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    I work for Swellnet as a professional Surf Forecaster, Craig.
     
    #185 SAsurfa, Jul 7, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2016
  36. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well I won't try edumacate you about that again!
     
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  37. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Welcome to my world.
     
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  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    IMO even colder on latest GFS run

    [​IMG]

    500 hPa temps of -39C

    [​IMG]
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thanks for posting CC.
    A great 'mud map' for the active NW inflow on Monday: Warm SSTs in the NW (+2C anomaly) mixing with very cold upper levels (-2 anom values) driven by broad/strong NW (120kts) jet streams.
     
    #189 POW_hungry, Jul 7, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2016
  40. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    :eek:
     
  41. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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  42. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Being positive... I don't think we will avoid some prefrontal during Sunday. However; should turn to snow late Sunday night and dump down Monday and TTuesday clearing Wednesday morning. 40-70cm
     
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  43. BH

    BH One of Us

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    Not a massive fan.....I see prefrontal quite a bit from Sunday till Monday morning and then the super cold temperatures scare me. It rarely pukes in Oz when its that cold. 10-20cm net gain for mine- After a wet and warm week- I suggest staying away from the cams on Monday morning. Hope I am wrong....
     
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  44. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks warmer than previously progged this morning. Still cold. It's also taking longer for the cold air to arrive, after what looks like 50 odd mm of prefrontal. Then it gets dry quickly as BH suggested. It also looks shorter today, cleared up by Wednesday PM. Looks like that trailing high will set up camp over us for a few days afterwards, which will be good for snowmaking I guess.
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No question about pre-frontal. 20mm Sun-Monday arvo for much of the resorts. 25-35cm from Monday night to early Wednesday AM will make it all better IMO.
    [​IMG]
    5220 thickness pool in Vic gives me the shivers...
    [​IMG]
     
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  46. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    That doesnt look too bad, but I reckon you are being very conservative with 20mm prefrontal.
     
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  47. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    With cold temps -2 getting colder, Yr for Hotham is sitting at about 70mm for the period all snow.. Bit high?
    That map above does suggest warm start..
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's alot of it, I agree. But that jet stream is flogging it south. Access suggests the majority of pre-frontal dives south before the low moves into the bight. The alps won't be immune but I think we may see the bulk of it unleash in western Vic and move south on Monday.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    #198 POW_hungry, Jul 8, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2016
  49. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Up to 50 potentially.
    You'd almost prefer that kind of penetration, more snow afterwards and all.
    Lot of se slide potential about this one though.
     
  50. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    In some cases yes, but in this particular system, the warmer air and moisture is not really contained within the same system as the cold air and SW blast. They're really 2 systems very close to each other, with minimal influence between each, one is completely warm tropical moisture, the other is a pure SW blast. In a perfect world they would have had more time to mix and potentially do what you've suggested, but in this scenario I think we're going to see 2 distinct periods of rainfall, 1 from the tropical influence and the other from the SW blast.
     
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