Predictions 10th to 13th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.

  1. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    Definitely not good Monday - everything from the first system is tropical.
    The cold system should come through in two waves (ie a front and a trailing trough), helping increase the snowfall. But the cons are: its missing a deep low near us, and the trailing high moves too quickly. So, its not an all-time snow storm - but it will bring most resorts 30 to 40 cm.
    The cold is interesting though: here's the zoomed in thickness values from GFS (its actually thickness, not 500mb as labeled): 524 over southern VIC, 521 to 517 over TAS...

     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you're a low-level snow enthusiast, Tuesdays a great time to visit Tassie.
     
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  3. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am seeing figures of around 2% cover...of the entire Australian area when this one blows through, according to present forecasts for the entire SE. Based on the figures and a bit of rounding, it is equal to 3.5 Switzerlands.
     
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  4. zar

    zar One of Us

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    Why is this ultra-cold weather forecast for Tuesday not reflected in the BOM forecast?

    They have a Hobart range of 4-10C with a shower or two. That doesn't sound alarming to me.
     
  5. zar

    zar One of Us

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    It looks dry according to the GFS model Miss Jane put up?
     
  6. zar

    zar One of Us

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    Isn't the Freezing Level ( which I believe to be 400m as a determinant for sea level snow ) a more important measure than how cold it is at high elevation?
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    No, you still need far cooler conditions at higher altitude to form snow.
    IMO the bare minimum for snow -20C at 500hPa - and even then you'll get a "wintery mix"
    -25C is much better, @ -30C start getting fat flakes. The colder it is, the larger the ice crystal can grow to. (generalization)
    Now at low altitude, low temps are important to stop that snow melting back into rain.
     
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  8. zar

    zar One of Us

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    Thanks. So we have a Tuesday situation of it being easily cold enough for snowflake generation but at sealevel, it's not looking cold enough for the flakes to stay alive? The only way out is for heavy shower/snow bursts to cool down the lower layer, which isn't looking favorable at the moment in terms of forecast totals. Am I correct? Is this the reason BOM are not suggesting the temperatures will be terrificly low?
     
  9. zar

    zar One of Us

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    How does this setup compare to August 3 last year when snow settled at sea level in Tasmania?
     
  10. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I've seen it snow at sea level (in Rotterdam) with temps around 5C.
    Cold uppers absolutely help. If it's cold at 850hPa and 925hPa levels that helps even more (less or no melt on the way down!)
    I think it will be damn cold on Tuesday evening in Hobart, I suspect the BOM forecast will come into line over the weekend.
    More of the issue is that rainfall will be probably confined to the west coast and the rest of the island will be in rain shadow.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Even colder Wednesday morning.
     
  11. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    BOM is progging this one early today.

    Prefrontal rain could be quite large.

    But cold snow with clearing conditions = Blue bird days

    [​IMG]
    I
     
  12. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Very nodal as you would expect. This is not a half baked event. Plenty of Rain, 50 cm Snow, and 19 sec Long Period S swell.

    Heaps of polar air moving over the Alpine.

    [​IMG]
     
    #212 7wombathead, Jul 8, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2016
  13. Cham

    Cham One of Us

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    With all this Prefrontal rain on Monday.....after snowfall on Tuesday, Wednesday nett loss or gain on depth for Falls/Hotham? About to pull pin on original planned departure for Falls this Tuesday with kids & family until Friday. Cant see the base left holding out well on Monday.
     
  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    There's in excess of half a meter base everywhere and more in man made areas. Base will be fine. Tuesday/Wednesday will be great. IMO
     
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  15. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    If I could get out there Tuesday I would. Best snow condiotns in oz are generally in a blizzard. Suit up man up and hit it IMO.
     
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  16. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    THIS - best time to ski in Oz IMO is during blizzards. Less people on the hill and head to the sheltered spots, it's just when the chairs go on wind hold it becomes an issue. Luckily Perisher has lots of T's :D
     
  17. Cham

    Cham One of Us

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    Cheers all. I think I will turn a blind eye to the cams and reports on Monday. Just pulled the trigger to go up early Tuesday.
     
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  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    wind hold isn't an issue if you're walking.... ;)
     
  19. snowblowa

    snowblowa One of Us

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    Another cut-off to follow?? What is the consensus of when the trailing Mr Ridgey moves on?
     
  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The one in the middle of the Indian? That specific system won't impact SE Aus but models prog that the node it's from will eventually move it on. It has potential and due around the 19-20th.
     
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  21. bengarden

    bengarden One of Us

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    I'm also thinking of heading out into the storm on Tuesday to get some fresh. For those in the know, what direction should the wind be coming from? NW? Where does that favour in Perisher to be protected a bit. I know about t-bars but hoping Interceptor could be sheltered a bit as thats my fav. bad weather bowl to hang out in blizzards with no-one else around, usually. Snow-forecast is showing 75km winds Tuesday arvo which I'm worried might even be a bit much for me
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    60-70kms NW in the AM shifting westerly and increasing to 80-90kms in the arvo IMO. Gusts in excess of 110kms on the summits.
     
  23. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like a North Perisher T-bar sort of day on Tuesday.
     
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  24. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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  25. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    I am not sure but it looks stable enough to camp up high from Thursday to Tuesday.


    I am liking the big fat 1041 hpa high
     
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  26. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    Easily, gusts will be pushing 130km/h +

    This is a serious front
     
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  27. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    BOM saying snow to 400m around Melbourne on Tuesday. That's cold. Hope there is plenty of moisture to go with the temps.
     
  28. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    1st time I have seen Meteye having snow at Ballarat. Lunch time onwards, depending on when you have lunch.
     
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  29. skichic

    skichic A Local

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    Does anything run at Thredbo in winds that strong? That's where we will be on Tuesday :doh:
     
  30. neck_deep

    neck_deep Addicted

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    Thoughts on that high pushing moisture South? Got tue/wed only question is hit southern vicco or the bigger fellas North. Wind hold not a deciding factor.

    Edit: will have hotham area for the weekend just a question of the working day call
     
  31. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    From past experience Easy Does It (Friday Flat), Gunbarrel (slim chance), Merritts Chair and Easy Rider t bar. Hopefully it won't be that strong but those isobars look pretty tight.:eek:
     
    #231 PMG, Jul 8, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2016
  32. skichic

    skichic A Local

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    Kids supposed to be racing on Rossi and World Cup. None of those lifts go there!
     
  33. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    GFS solution looking a blast.[​IMG]
     
  34. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't really like it. No high above the low. Borderline loss/ gain. Hope I'm wrong. Not a classic snow pattern.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Tough week at work?
     
  36. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    No. Just unsure about the synoptics. The classic synoptic snowfall systems just don't seem to be happening on these predictions. A bit like the last week where I was sceptical as it just didn't look right.
     
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  37. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowgums?
     
  38. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    I am predicting Wednesday better than Tuesday.. More lifts ..don't tell
    Anyone.. School holidays over ?
    Hope it's not one of those SISP systems
     
  39. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe but they closed Gunbarrel last Thursday apparently (was there Friday) so can't see Snowgums running in those sort of winds.
     
  40. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    TBH i think it will be long thick and very wet.
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  41. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    You think 4 inches is long?



    Sorry CC, couldn't resist
     
  42. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ive been told that its the thickness that is most important :D
     
  43. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Wet or white?
     
  44. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    Slowgums is always a goer, swinging and all. :thumbs:
     
  45. Wardy

    Wardy One of Us

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    Yup Snowgums will still run in a gale; that's what they'll use
     
  46. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM going for snow 700M NSW CTs Tuesday
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Always been in the forecast. It's not likely to be anything heavy (2-3cm) IMO.
     
  48. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Upgrade this morning on GFS?
     
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  49. loweee

    loweee One of Us

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    and ec going off yeah.no Perisher with longer duration and 60cm
    IMO
     
  50. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bom now saying snow from Monday afternoon, down to 1400. Yay!