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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.
Yep. More inline with EC, IMO.
Problem is, the bulk of the pre-frontal precip moves through Monday AM (tomorrow night through to Monday midday).
That said, 1400m is still ambitious IMO. GFS has temps progged for Monday 7pm around the same temps we experienced last Tuesday - maybe even a bit warmer.
i.e. This is the tail end of the pre-frontal (7-10am Monday) with temps 2/-6/-20
If pretty, glossy magazines are your jam....
Pre-frontal mapped for tomorrow/Monday respectively. As far as the resorts go, you can expect all to be rain IMO:
Snow for the resorts from Monday mid-eve, thereabouts IMO. EC, GFS & AXS agree with the prospect of Hotham & Falls doing really well (10-15cm better than NSW resorts perhaps):
For those worried about the wind on Tuesday.... As you were...
Resort level winds Tuesday PM:
Hmm, to drive in Monday night, or have the blizzard drive experience on Tuesday, thats how I read it. Looks like about a 24hr snowfall event?
Re Pow's post above. Nowhere but Tassie does it hit pink i.e. >50 cm. But 49cm would be nice. And those wind speeds are too slow. 9m/s is only 32.4 kmh and Bom has 55 to 75 kmh at Thredbo. Gusts can be 40% more so 100 kmh plus. Those driving to snowfields can experience this now. Wind down car windows - maybe wear a beanie.
On BSCH chart there's an interesting blue bulls eye of gentler breezes at Selwyn.... W
Monday, I reckon. Tuesday will be a poo storm and Monday means you can smash a schooey at the end of it.
Still seeing a decent profit in this. Prior rain may not be as bad as predicted and actual snowfall may be better than predicted.
I will go for a profit of 25- 30cms depending on where you are. After this though there will be plenty of opportunity for man made through to next weekend.
The EC chart you posted for total accumulation is max of 4.37 inches. Isn't it?
(I still think we're looking at 40cm odd though)
I'm an idiot. X10 would be 40 inches of snow (but we know it won't all fall as snow)
Marked the sharp small embedded low for you.
We're cross purposes it seems
BOM predicting snow down to 1400 meters Monday for Victoria. I hope they are right.
See near top of this page.
Saw this, this morning. It'll be where the 'money's made' this system IMO. Progged for Tuesday 2pm-ish for few hours of heavy stuff.
Heavy light stuff?
Heavy, light and white.
With the system only just hitting the SW the 00Z GFS run has a stall on the cold air and front due later in the morning of Tuesday. Should have a better idea with EC & AXS tonight/tomorrow.
To have Tuesday off or Wednesday?
If it is stalling the Wednesday is safer
EC yr very cold Wednesday morning!
Watching this thread closely
Trailing high has moved into amaze-balls position. So much for the ridging I was worried about. It doesnt last for very long it seems, but long enough to drop a decent amount of snow to low levels. I'm going to go 30-50mm of prefrontal, with isolated heavier falls due to orographic lifting from the NW airflow (it hasnt seen height/mountains for a long time) then a foot + at Buller from the time it turns SW and cools down. Snowline is looking like 50% chance of snow to <400m, so Strezleckis should get a covering. This looks like being some of the real deal good shit.
BOM Vicco RE: Tuesday.
"Snowfalls descending to 300 metres by the evening."
BOM Tassie RE: Wednesday
"Snow possible above 200 metres."
Down to 300m now for Tuesday evening. That is very good quality snow for the resorts. Just hope there's plenty of it.
Looking epic IMO
EC 00Z going with GFS here for the stall. Cold air and falls filling in from mid-morn Tuesday. Agreed Verm, that High is better-adjusted on this run. EC looks really tight.
Low level snow doesn't necessarily equate to a huge dump.
And now to 600m in NSW on the central and southern tablelands. Sweet.
I know, but it will be quality snow.
right now, with the current snow pack id be going for quantity than quality IMO. if we had a 1m+ base, definitely quality.
Not real sure on this. Short good falls but I think a fair bit of rain may occur. More than happy to be wrong but it doesn't look quite right to me.
Agree, good chance of both I think. Quantity early in the piece followed with some fun for everyone. Even going for snow in the Warby's, Just west of Wang.
From the BOM northeast forecast for Wed...
"Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers or snow, mostly clearing by the evening with possible hail. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between minus 3 and 2 above zero with daytime temperatures reaching between 2 and 10."
No mention of snow down to "x" metres. Just showers or snow across the NE. Noice.
BOM northeast for Tuesday 12/7/2016. Snowfalls descending to 300 meters by evening.
BoM - 4 Dayer
Sunday 10 July
Cloudy. Areas of morning fog. Medium (60%) chance of rain in the late afternoon and evening. Snow possible above 1700 metres. Light winds becoming northerly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning.
No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]
Chance of snow
20% at 1800m
Below 5% at 1400m
0% at 1000m
Monday 11 July
Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain about the ranges, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1500 metres. Winds northerly 25 to 35 km/h turning northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 30 to 45 km/h in the evening.
Chance of snow
60% at 1800m
10% at 1400m
0% at 1000m
Tuesday 12 July
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers or snow about the ranges, medium (60%) chance elsewhere. Winds northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h turning westerly during the evening.
Chance of snow
90% at 1800m
90% at 1400m
50% at 1000m
Wednesday 13 July
Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers about the alpine peaks, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h during the evening.
Chance of snow
60% at 1800m
50% at 1400m
30% at 1000m
Yeah Nah (Perisher)
I know I've had all week off, but can I also have Thursday off as well ?
Stall on the first low looks like sending prefrontal further south thru vic. Might be lucky in nsw and miss it.
Real chance of thunder snow Tuesday through Wednesday....
Pressure gets high quickly Wednesday on Bom 4day
Playing around with MetEye and seemingly absurd snow forecasts like Berridale on Tue min 2 to max 10 with 3 to 10 mm precip but snow symbol boldly visible. Jindabyne 8 to 20 mm but temps of 2 min to 9 max.If it falls as 20 cm of snow it will be traffic chaos. Khancoban Wed is shower symbol with temp 1 to 5 Something's amiss........ W
Obviously snow can fall +0C temps, I'll assume you know this already.
BOM forecasts are from 0900hrs to 0900hrs the following day. If you look at BOM's following day's forecast for Berridale you'll see neg temps (-3C max 6C), this supports the potential for overnight snowfall. i.e. The 'snow level' sinks below Berridale's elevation of 860m from about midnight-9am Wednesday IMO.
BOM max precipitation for Hotham/falls ~125mm; min ~40mm
Thanks Pow but hmmm, I disagree. Seems that the BoM day starts at midnight. Click on DETAIL button for Berridale TUES and temps at 3 hour intervals concur with min = 2 and max of 10. Still doesn't explain generous use of snow symbol asterisk..... W
Sorry, BOM obs... Not forecasts. It still tells me that snow is likely during that timeframe (Tuesday night) 10pm is indicated at 0C and snow possible on MetEye.
I know forecasted rainfall is for a 24 hour period from 12UTC (10pm AEST) so perhaps forecasted temps are based on this cycle too @warrie
Later again on GFS & EC 12Z run with the high reclining SW a little more, so things don't start getting juicy until Tuesday midday IMO.
Pre-frontal 30mm minimum for the alps tonight/tomorrow (although it's virtually not pre-frontal at all... It's it's own trough feature).
Tuesday arvo/eve looks the best time for the heavy stuff, and some good follow up falls early Wednesday morning. 25-35cm IMO.
What would typically happen is that it would be mostly pre-frontal rain, then a bit of snow as the main cold front passes and then dries up east of the range. So of the precipitation quoted only a small part of that falls as snow.
Last 4 hours on BoM satellite pics show centre of low stalled in Bight and new mini frontal band approaching Kangaroo Island. Stalling not a good sign IMO.... W
Well, I'm hoping for a un-forecasted shift in the weather over the next few weeks to get a few good fronts over the alps. The Olympic year snow bonanza is not up to gold standard at the moment.
Normally a predicted max today of 12c for Melb with rain developing would get me excited..