Predictions 10th to 13th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. More inline with EC, IMO.
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Problem is, the bulk of the pre-frontal precip moves through Monday AM (tomorrow night through to Monday midday).
    That said, 1400m is still ambitious IMO. GFS has temps progged for Monday 7pm around the same temps we experienced last Tuesday - maybe even a bit warmer.
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    i.e. This is the tail end of the pre-frontal (7-10am Monday) with temps 2/-6/-20
    [​IMG]
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    If pretty, glossy magazines are your jam....
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. cookieman

    cookieman One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    porn
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pre-frontal mapped for tomorrow/Monday respectively. As far as the resorts go, you can expect all to be rain IMO:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Snow for the resorts from Monday mid-eve, thereabouts IMO. EC, GFS & AXS agree with the prospect of Hotham & Falls doing really well (10-15cm better than NSW resorts perhaps):
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    For those worried about the wind on Tuesday.... As you were...
    Resort level winds Tuesday PM:
    [​IMG]
     
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  7. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hmm, to drive in Monday night, or have the blizzard drive experience on Tuesday, thats how I read it. Looks like about a 24hr snowfall event?
     
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  8. warrie

    warrie Addicted

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    Re Pow's post above. Nowhere but Tassie does it hit pink i.e. >50 cm. But 49cm would be nice. LOL And those wind speeds are too slow. 9m/s is only 32.4 kmh and Bom has 55 to 75 kmh at Thredbo. Gusts can be 40% more so 100 kmh plus. Those driving to snowfields can experience this now. Wind down car windows - maybe wear a beanie.
    On BSCH chart there's an interesting blue bulls eye of gentler breezes at Selwyn.... W
     
    #258 warrie, Jul 9, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2016
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday, I reckon. Tuesday will be a poo storm and Monday means you can smash a schooey at the end of it.
     
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  10. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Still seeing a decent profit in this. Prior rain may not be as bad as predicted and actual snowfall may be better than predicted.
    I will go for a profit of 25- 30cms depending on where you are. After this though there will be plenty of opportunity for man made through to next weekend.
     
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  11. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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  12. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    The EC chart you posted for total accumulation is max of 4.37 inches. Isn't it?

    (I still think we're looking at 40cm odd though)
     
  13. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm an idiot. X10 would be 40 inches of snow (but we know it won't all fall as snow)
     
  14. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    Marked the sharp small embedded low for you.
    [​IMG]]
     
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  15. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    We're cross purposes it seems ;)
     
  16. MarkV

    MarkV One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM predicting snow down to 1400 meters Monday for Victoria. I hope they are right.
     
  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    See near top of this page.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Saw this, this morning. It'll be where the 'money's made' this system IMO. Progged for Tuesday 2pm-ish for few hours of heavy stuff.
     
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  19. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heavy light stuff?
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heavy, light and white.
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    With the system only just hitting the SW the 00Z GFS run has a stall on the cold air and front due later in the morning of Tuesday. Should have a better idea with EC & AXS tonight/tomorrow.
     
  22. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    To have Tuesday off or Wednesday?
    If it is stalling the Wednesday is safer
    EC yr very cold Wednesday morning!
    Watching this thread closely
     
  23. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Trailing high has moved into amaze-balls position. So much for the ridging I was worried about. It doesnt last for very long it seems, but long enough to drop a decent amount of snow to low levels. I'm going to go 30-50mm of prefrontal, with isolated heavier falls due to orographic lifting from the NW airflow (it hasnt seen height/mountains for a long time) then a foot + at Buller from the time it turns SW and cools down. Snowline is looking like 50% chance of snow to <400m, so Strezleckis should get a covering. This looks like being some of the real deal good shit.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM Vicco RE: Tuesday.
    "Snowfalls descending to 300 metres by the evening."

    BOM Tassie RE: Wednesday
    "Snow possible above 200 metres."
     
  25. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    Down to 300m now for Tuesday evening. That is very good quality snow for the resorts. Just hope there's plenty of it.
     
  26. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon One of Us

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    Looking epic IMO
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00Z going with GFS here for the stall. Cold air and falls filling in from mid-morn Tuesday. Agreed Verm, that High is better-adjusted on this run. EC looks really tight.
    [​IMG]
    GFS
    [​IMG]
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Low level snow doesn't necessarily equate to a huge dump.
     
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  29. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Hard Yards

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    And now to 600m in NSW on the central and southern tablelands. Sweet.
     
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  30. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    I know, but it will be quality snow.
     
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  31. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    right now, with the current snow pack id be going for quantity than quality IMO. if we had a 1m+ base, definitely quality.
     
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  32. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not real sure on this. Short good falls but I think a fair bit of rain may occur. More than happy to be wrong but it doesn't look quite right to me.
     
  33. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    Agree, good chance of both I think. Quantity early in the piece followed with some fun for everyone. Even going for snow in the Warby's, Just west of Wang.
     
  34. Boonie

    Boonie Hard Yards

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    From the BOM northeast forecast for Wed...

    "Cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of showers or snow, mostly clearing by the evening with possible hail. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h. Overnight temperatures falling to between minus 3 and 2 above zero with daytime temperatures reaching between 2 and 10."

    No mention of snow down to "x" metres. Just showers or snow across the NE. Noice.
     
  35. glengary

    glengary One of Us

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    BOM northeast for Tuesday 12/7/2016. Snowfalls descending to 300 meters by evening.
     
  36. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM - 4 Dayer

    [​IMG]


    BoM (Snowies)

    Sunday 10 July
    Cloudy. Areas of morning fog. Medium (60%) chance of rain in the late afternoon and evening. Snow possible above 1700 metres. Light winds becoming northerly 20 to 30 km/h in the morning.

    No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Chance of snow
    20% at 1800m
    Below 5% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Monday 11 July
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of rain about the ranges, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Snow falling above 1500 metres. Winds northerly 25 to 35 km/h turning northwesterly 35 to 55 km/h during the morning then decreasing to 30 to 45 km/h in the evening.

    Chance of snow
    60% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Tuesday 12 July
    Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of showers or snow about the ranges, medium (60%) chance elsewhere. Winds northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h turning westerly during the evening.

    Chance of snow
    90% at 1800m
    90% at 1400m
    50% at 1000m
    Wednesday 13 July
    Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers about the alpine peaks, medium (40%) chance elsewhere. Winds westerly 35 to 50 km/h decreasing to 25 to 35 km/h during the evening.

    Chance of snow
    60% at 1800m
    50% at 1400m
    30% at 1000m

    Yeah Nah (Perisher)

    [​IMG]


    I know I've had all week off, but can I also have Thursday off as well ?
     
    #286 DidSurfNowSki, Jul 9, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2016
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  37. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    Stall on the first low looks like sending prefrontal further south thru vic. Might be lucky in nsw and miss it.
     
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  38. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Real chance of thunder snow Tuesday through Wednesday....
     
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  39. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Pressure gets high quickly Wednesday on Bom 4day
     
  40. warrie

    warrie Addicted

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    Playing around with MetEye and seemingly absurd snow forecasts like Berridale on Tue min 2 to max 10 with 3 to 10 mm precip but snow symbol boldly visible. Jindabyne 8 to 20 mm but temps of 2 min to 9 max.If it falls as 20 cm of snow it will be traffic chaos. Khancoban Wed is shower symbol with temp 1 to 5 Something's amiss........ W
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Obviously snow can fall +0C temps, I'll assume you know this already.

    BOM forecasts are from 0900hrs to 0900hrs the following day. If you look at BOM's following day's forecast for Berridale you'll see neg temps (-3C max 6C), this supports the potential for overnight snowfall. i.e. The 'snow level' sinks below Berridale's elevation of 860m from about midnight-9am Wednesday IMO.
     
  42. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM max precipitation for Hotham/falls ~125mm; min ~40mm
     
  43. warrie

    warrie Addicted

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    Thanks Pow but hmmm, I disagree. Seems that the BoM day starts at midnight. Click on DETAIL button for Berridale TUES and temps at 3 hour intervals concur with min = 2 and max of 10. Still doesn't explain generous use of snow symbol asterisk..... W
     
  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry, BOM obs... Not forecasts. It still tells me that snow is likely during that timeframe (Tuesday night) 10pm is indicated at 0C and snow possible on MetEye.
     
  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I know forecasted rainfall is for a 24 hour period from 12UTC (10pm AEST) so perhaps forecasted temps are based on this cycle too @warrie
     
    #295 POW_hungry, Jul 9, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2016
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Later again on GFS & EC 12Z run with the high reclining SW a little more, so things don't start getting juicy until Tuesday midday IMO.
    Pre-frontal 30mm minimum for the alps tonight/tomorrow (although it's virtually not pre-frontal at all... It's it's own trough feature).

    Tuesday arvo/eve looks the best time for the heavy stuff, and some good follow up falls early Wednesday morning. 25-35cm IMO.
     
    #296 POW_hungry, Jul 10, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2016
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  47. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    What would typically happen is that it would be mostly pre-frontal rain, then a bit of snow as the main cold front passes and then dries up east of the range. So of the precipitation quoted only a small part of that falls as snow.
     
  48. warrie

    warrie Addicted

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    Last 4 hours on BoM satellite pics show centre of low stalled in Bight and new mini frontal band approaching Kangaroo Island. Stalling not a good sign IMO.... W
     
  49. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Well, I'm hoping for a un-forecasted shift in the weather over the next few weeks to get a few good fronts over the alps. The Olympic year snow bonanza is not up to gold standard at the moment.
     
  50. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Normally a predicted max today of 12c for Melb with rain developing would get me excited..
     
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