Predictions 10th to 13th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.

  1. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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  2. 1st_King_of_QBN

    1st_King_of_QBN One of Us

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    Love to see the pre-frontal as snow :thumbs:
     
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  3. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Except that all that moisture streaming in from the NW is tropical with no cold air to match. Not yet anyway.
     
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  4. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Normally I would agree Mr Chopps but I can tell you that right now about 15km southeast of Tumbarumba the air around ground level (790m asl) is damn cold. Machinery shed temp says 2c. Wind increasing in strength slowly as well. And yes I know whats happening at ground level doesnt indicate whats happening upstairs. Still i think its not cold enough to convert all moisture to snow today so rain will happen but maybe we might convert some of it later today.
     
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  5. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    thats one big ass high coming in on wednesday. May be the last front we see for a while. IMO resorts will be using this opportunity to get as much snow made as possible before they finish for the season
     
  6. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    WTF??
     
  7. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  8. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    "The efficiency of snowmaking is largely driven by weather conditions. Low temperature and low humidity increase snowmaking efficiency, so in Australia, snowmaking is practicable mainly during the early to middle part of the season (typically May to mid-August)".

    What I mean is, snowmaking generally dies down towards the end of july, early august. Once the base is laid, snowmaking is done IMO and only used to top up the cover when conditions are right.

    By a big high coming in, they'll pump as much man made out as they can while the conditions allow them to. <---- this is what I meant.

    Hope that clears up your confusion...
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    00Z GFS Accumulative Snowfall through to Thursday. Highlighted is the deepest value.
    You could expect ~15% more with SW orographic lift.
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. kimberlee81

    kimberlee81 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Ta. (Sounded like you were ready to call the season done!)
     
  11. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking great for the Tassie Highlands:) But I think we will get more than 28cm IMO Because of that southernly wind
     
  12. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    BOM forecasting snow down to 300m in the evening in my area. Meaning my shop (and house) should be blanketed in snow by Wednesday morning, which means the road from Melbourne will be closed by VicRoads.
     
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Great Alpine Road and the roads to the other alpine resorts are going to be undrivable I think.. Not to mention the road to Perisher and Kiandra
     
  14. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    What is the outlook for Baw Baw, I am praying to all denominations :evil:
     
  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    They are saying snow to 1000m during day and 400m during night on Tuesday for Baw Baw
     
  16. Baw Baw Bear

    Baw Baw Bear One of Us

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    Hopefully enough precip to make it count :D
     
  17. jorgo

    jorgo Hard Yards

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    Interested in a few more opinions on this. Was thinking about driving up late Tuesday but could be a big gamble and very slow going from Melbourne.
     
  18. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

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    Hope not.. Driving to falls .. Could do DP if more in shadow ..
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  20. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    I'm thinking we won't see snow until after lunch on Tuesday
    (IMO)

    [​IMG]
     
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  21. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    any thoughts on when the snow will start? (says the bloke at hotham going home tomorrow arvo looking out the window at the rain starting thinking that 10 tonight will make tomorrow ok).
     
  22. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    ha ha claude are you reading my mind?
     
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  23. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Might snow a bit earlier at higher elevations.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is a W-NW system, Tuesday through Thursday. May not see hint of South until the end of the week IMO.
     
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  25. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    WSW Wednesday pm on imo, vic
     
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Severe Weather Warning
    IDV28000

    Severe Weather Warning for damaging winds for people in the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
    Issued at 4:18 pm EST on Sunday 10 July 2016.

    Weather Situation
    A deep low pressure system over the Bight is moving slowly to the southeast. A cold front associated with the low will move over western Victoria this evening and cross the remainder of the State early on Monday. Strong northerly winds ahead of the front will tend north to northwesterly early on Monday.

    DAMAGING WINDS of 50 to 60 km/h with gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are forecast across parts of the Southwest district this afternoon and expected to extend to parts of the North Central, North East, South West, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts through the remainder of Sunday. Strong north to northwesterly winds are also expected across Victoria on Monday, in particular across elevated areas as well as near the coast, where damaging winds of 50 to 60 km/h with gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are forecast. Peak gusts of 110km/h possible about Alpine areas on Sunday night as well as on Monday afternoon.

    -A wind gust of 100 km/h was recorded at Mt William at 3:12pm.
     
  27. tomtankman

    tomtankman Addicted

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    A lot of people on this forum are forgetting that when a nw'ly blows at >20kts the freezing level is obtained by lifting the upstream airmass adiabatically NOT looking at free air 850hPa temps. That is why BOM have snow levels 1400m on Monday. It is irrelevent what the upper air temps are because the air forced over the alps replaces it.
     
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  28. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    06z tuesday/1830m/temp @1000mb.....is (freezing)
    [​IMG]
     
  29. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hard to pick. Mt Gambier is less than 10 degrees with rain falling from the big cloud mass associated with the low. Puts the freeze level around 1700m?? But Cape Borda at 12 puting freeze level around 2000m??

    Touch and go for the initial low (swirling cloud mass in the bight at present). Could be tonnes of snow above 1800m. before the cold air pushes up.
     
  30. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    So Meteye now saying snow for Springhurst and West Wodonga in the early hours of Wednesday morning. Can you put much faith in that. Nice if it happens.
     
  31. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    sigh , doesnt rain just bring out the best in people :D
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic.
    Personal attacks will not be tolerated.
     
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  33. blackice

    blackice One of Us

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    I apologised. And I offered to delete my own posts.

    What are you doing about the troll?
     
  34. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    What troll? I think you're the only one reading that way.
     
  35. blackice

    blackice One of Us

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    I'm glad he cleared up your confusion Kimberlee. I was a bit confused myself
     
  36. blackice

    blackice One of Us

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    [- Deleted by Admin - dealt with by PM -]
     
    #336 blackice, Jul 10, 2016
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 10, 2016
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  37. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    Should be a spectacular system as it moves through will have the bonus of alot of tropical moisture to freeze and dump. Widespread whiteouts. [​IMG]


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    Very deep low that should have a huge tail band, sweeping blizzards. looking now for the next.
     
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  38. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    New tuesday forecast in Adelaide of max 11 and 8-25mm of rain. Gotta be good for a big dump.
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The coldest air is due to arrive anywhere between 4am-8am WED depending where you are in Vic/Tas. With this in mind I think we could see snow in some very odd places by Wednesday morning. That said, you'll need to be in the right place at the right time as outside of the alps things start to dry up pretty quickly up that way. Perhaps some security guard at the top of Eureka Tower Wednesday AM might have a rare sight. Worth a hunt wherever you are.
     
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  40. MBR

    MBR Hard Yards

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    I predict i will be freezing my bollocks off Working nightshift Tuesday night in Ballarat, will keep everyone updated with snow around there.
     
  41. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pfftt. I remember seeing it snow while sitting at my desk on the 9th floor of a Bourke St (Melbourne) office block in the 1980s.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    At 30-odd years-on I'd call that rare.;)
     
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  43. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ie. Rare. ;)
     
  44. teckel

    teckel Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It was a Friday, and my car was in the carpark next door packed for a weekend trip to FC. That evening on the highway, the paddocks on either side of the road at Craigieburn still had a good cover of snow. FC only got a few cms out of that system.
     
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  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Better safe than sorry. I will be firmly on the hill when the storm hits. I think there might be enough depth to ski to 600m looking at the system
     
  46. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Snowing at top of Mt Perisher, so its started. Early start!
     
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  47. Kelpieboy

    Kelpieboy One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    It will become rain again tomorrow when the temps rise again , damn I hate saying stuff like that
     
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  48. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Expecting Windhold conditions on Tuesday IMO, sad really... imagine the powder
     
  49. blackice

    blackice One of Us

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    T-Bars. Trees. Guthega...
     
  50. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I live at Buller where if Windhold occurs, everything is closed but trees are an option