Predictions 10th to 13th July

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.

  1. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    Not so sure.. lets see.
     
  2. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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    I am interested in learning more of this comment, any write ups around.
     
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Stay on topic. Predictions only.
     
  4. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    [​IMG]
    Why this looks such a good setup.
    Upper level divergence Blue.....Lower level convergence Red
    This inward flow at the surface convergence forces rising motion in the vicinity of the low weather that often produce windy conditions and widespread rain and snow, just downstream of upper level troughs where upper level divergence occurs.
     
  5. Jeffb

    Jeffb Hard Yards

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    3 month lead suggests a v/good wet season. Been fun see you guys next year.
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. William

    William A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    You can add to that forecast. The Adelaide Hills, Mid North and Flinders have snow forecast by the BoM on Tuesday to 500m. If that comes off it'll be the most significant snowfalls in SA since 24th May 2000. This is such a great system. Followed by what's looking to be a monstrous high and hopefully we'll get some good heavy frosts later in the week.
     
  7. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah i'm feeling something along these lines.
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Accumulative Snowfalls for the next 72 hours. Note sea-level falls (6-9cm) SW Tas.
    [​IMG]
     
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  9. janesweather

    janesweather One of Us

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    "Snow rapidly lowers with the strong front, and should fall near sea level at the coldest point of the trough (early Wednesday - with accumulating snow over southern Gippsland, and possibly over Melbourne's southeast suburbs, as that's where the precipitation will be at that time). And its heavy for alpine areas with 25 to 50 cm."

    It will snow in Melbourne's southeast ... because I'm not going to be here - I'll be at Buller, and not even get to ski :(
     
  10. NewTurns

    NewTurns One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Like this very much
     
  11. Sandy

    Sandy Dark Sith Lord of the Pool Room Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Prognostic shows the centre of low pressure will be too far south for huge amounts of snow. The best thing to hope for is another centre of low pressure to develop south of Adelaide early Tue morning (unlikely and not shown on current maps)
     
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  12. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    35 ish imo.
    With massive loading imo.
     
  13. zar

    zar One of Us

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    What suburbs in Melbourne are likely to have snow on the ground?! I have never heard of such a thing, when did that last happen?

    Could someone please offer a story of what might happen in Hobart? Will there be enough time for snowfalls to settle in the city?
     
  14. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  15. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Purely speculating but I think Hobart and the channel country need more of a full blown southerly blast to get snow that low. Mount Wellington and The Snug Tiers (and the Hartz Mountains further to the SW) provide a pretty hefty shadow effect for SW systems.
    Last year Hobart and the Channel received sea level snow from a genuine full southerly blast around 2nd-3rd August.
     
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  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sea level snow for much of Tassie
    Not sure about Hobart but expecting snow at least above 200m in Hobart
    Possibly lower IMO
     
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  17. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A real possibility of flakes in Hobart CBD Wednesday early-mid morning. As for settling, I am inclined to say not likely as falls are light beyond the rain shadow (if it was more from the south I would probably say yes).
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    snappo.
     
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  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
    This when there is a NW wind in Tassie. Tuesday Morning
    [​IMG]
    When Tassie gets a WSW 24 hours later
    This is when the sea level snow will occur IMO.
    As the winds come straight up from Antartica at this point.
     
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  20. zar

    zar One of Us

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  21. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Boo!
     
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  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Mt Dandenong, perhaps Upwey. I can remember getting a 2cm dusting on my decking in Burwood East in August 1995!
    Mt Macedon, perhaps out the back of Eltham, Kinglake.
     
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  23. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    Full Power Speckles incoming at 9 oclock. Now if that can rotate 90 degrees and or move east north east were in for a treat.

    [​IMG]
     
  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Apparently the ABC is predicting sea level snow in the Eastern Melbourne Suburbs on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
     
  25. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    there are no eastern suburbs at sea level.
     
    #375 mick chopps, Jul 11, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2016
  26. glengary

    glengary One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Global warming, sea level up a bit.
     
  27. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    1995, the year of the sw system.
    Baw Baw year. Had the most base of anywhere by September.
     
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  28. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looking to be a bit gusty.
     
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  30. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Everyone is just sitting, waiting for this to happen.
     
  31. Adricat

    Adricat Addicted

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    Chance of wind hold at Thredbo Wed? To go Wed or Thursday?
     
  32. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    100%.
    Nothing but wind currently.
    Looking forward to whats to come tomorrow, will be a good obs viewing day
     
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  33. summit_32

    summit_32 Hard Yards

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    That's what i'm thinking - Thursday, rather than Wed due to wind otherwise keen to come up for the day
     
  34. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm going to view it first hand from in the water at HS Wednesday morning I think. Possibly Tuesday evening.
     
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  35. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very Jealous.
    Should be some solid ones coming through on the high Wednesday morning.

    All my leave is planned for OS reasons, and I dont have the chuck a sickie side to me, so ill be mind surfing on the cams.

    Hope you get some goods ones.
     
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  36. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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  37. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Got the childcare run first thing.
    Might even be a crunches midday low potentially.
    I think I'd rather be at Hotham Wednesday.
    So much blow in potential imo.
    Triple what falls, will set up Hotham imo
    Edit.
    Just checked swellnet....
    Actually I can see myself surfing weds Thurs Friday this week.
    Easier to find 2-3 hrs out of my day ATM.
    Jealous for those at snow Wednesday on!
     
    #387 The Plowking, Jul 11, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2016
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  38. FourSquare04

    FourSquare04 A Local

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    I predict Windhold Wednesday will be in full force IMO
     
  39. William

    William A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thursday morning should be right brisk for Adelaide. Big fat 1038hpa sitting right on top.
     
  40. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Absolutely.
    Hotham be OK though be a slow opening of terrain.
     
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  41. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thursday. Bluebird pow day.
     
  42. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Everything below the road.
     
  43. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wednesday the pick for quality inbounds. Enough should blow in overnight Wednesday considering dry quality to make first lifts epic Thursday morning imo.
     
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  44. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Considering the wind direction, id be parking at Shoreham and walking towards Flinders, less size but much cleaner than Pt Leo.
    Just off the Avo farm if you can get down early enough on the tide
     
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  45. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    No lifts bro
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    From Wednesday mid-arvo settles down a lot for the lucky ones with the resorts at their fingertips.
    [​IMG]
     
  47. Mishka

    Mishka Hard Yards

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    1986 - June 25th. There was a dusting at my High School in Eastern Burbs - Morning recess was awesome! - 30-year anniversary this year (damn, getting old).

    As for prediction of what will happen - Melbourne CBD will get a short-lived (and hugely hyped on Social Media) dusting, Eastern Burbs will get a bit more - but Hobart and Canberra could cease to function as cities for a day or more. Anything more than an inch settling on the roads and both cities will effectively shut down transport-wise (99% of Aussies have no concept how to drive on snow). The Hume could be cut even longer if it's a big fall, with some parts having an elevation of 800m and cold conditions remaining for days afterwards.
     
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  48. Research101

    Research101 Hard Yards

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    Yep that's the one I recall as well, was living in Reservior in Melb at the time, about 2cm all over the roads etc, didn't last long but was pretty cool too see in the burbs
    Hopefully will see it again very soon
     
  49. NewTurns

    NewTurns One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Break out the skins for first tracks
     
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  50. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Hard Yards

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    There'll not be the moisture for snow more than a cm in Canberra and it'll only last hours.