Predictions 10th to 13th July

Discussion in 'Weather' started by FourSquare04, Jul 2, 2016.

  1. connells

    connells Active Member

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    July 25th was the cold outbreak in 1986. Melbourne Airport had a max of 6 degrees.

    I have nothing to predict what has not already been predicted.
     
  2. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I doubt there will be enough moisture in Melbourne apart from a few snow flurries. IMO
     
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  3. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    It should be mentioned that Sept 1995 saw snow flurries in many Eastern suburbs and it was noted at the higher levels of some of the CBD skyscrapers.

    That was also the last time we saw a good snowfall in the Northern Country of Vic. It was sighted as far North as Elmore.

    There have been several times that it was cood enough for snow in Melbourne suburbs but moisture was lacking. Notably August 1997 and August 2005.
     
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  4. Snorkler

    Snorkler Part of the Furniture

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    @janesweather our mate Bryan in Tahoe often predicts the snow with various altitudes using a measure of the moisture content of the snow, ie 10% etc.

    Seeing this system produces snow to very low levels, imagine the ratio is really quite low. When you put down amount of snow, do you take this into account or you predict on a simple basis of 10%? A couple of thousand feet is bound to produce more snow higher than lower.
     
  5. skimax

    skimax Old And Crusty
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    There was some great footage IIRC from channel 10 on that snow fall i think they managed to get a chopper up in the air and there was some awesome footage of a couple of guys telemarking down the fairways on Olinda golf course ... awesome..
     
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  6. trappers

    trappers Safety not guaranteed
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    Ok a bit slow as I have been away ... but how nice does that look for Vic?! :)
     
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  7. Armitage_Shanks

    Armitage_Shanks Active Member

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    I had to sign up to respond to this question (been a lurker for long enough now).
    I remember riding to school in July 1986 in Mooroolbark during a snow shower. Then the flurries that we had in the suburbs in '95 and '05. Snow in the Dandenongs and Mt Macedon is not an unusual occurrence.

    I'm not convinced that we're going to get snow in the Melbourne burbs with this one though. I want to believe. But the current models don't show enough moisture. The 540 thickness line is in a nice position for about 6 hours. Should see some good falls at resort level after the pre-frontal wash.
     
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  8. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

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    I predict LOTS OF WIND.
     
  9. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    reckon numbers could be light.
     
  10. tomtankman

    tomtankman Active Member

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    Hi Cuddles. If you look at a sounding from this morning you will see freezing levels over southeast Australia around 2400m. Clearly from the observations all day the freezing level over the Alps was well below this figure. So why is it colder over the Alps? Thats because in a strong wind that is perpendicular to the Great Dividing Range the upstream air is forced over the ranges since air cant go through or around the mountains. This air cools as it rises at an adiabatic rate that depends on moisture. Lets use an example. The temperature at Albury at 3pm is 16C and dew point is 6C. If you lift this parcel adiabatically you reach 0C at around 1700m.....well below 2400m!!!
     
  11. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Tom, Yes understand the concept now, Is there any online right ups from BOM etc on this< That's what I meant to say?
     
  12. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    What about moisture for this system, Some say there may be a lack with Low heading south? What is opinion
     
  13. TomGroggon

    TomGroggon Active Member

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    Still good for 20 or 30 of quality snow re starter IMO As said previous the wind is going to be a big player in resort depths
     
    #413 TomGroggon, Jul 11, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2016
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  14. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  15. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Active Member

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    Given the BOM prediction of 15-40mm of rain for Adelaide in the next 36-48 hours, I'm quietly optimistic about the moisture.
     
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  16. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture
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    im not convinced it will deliver on the hype from last week in terms of quantity to the majors. and low level snow is kinda bad for the alps as the low level hills steal the moisture. i hope i am wrong. 20 or 30 is probably about right
     
  17. Mishka

    Mishka Active Member

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    Looks like a 4 foot + dump at Cradle Mountain in Tassie. Would love to have a booking this week at the lodge up there (and while I'm dreaming, throw in a personal Ski-Doo or Heli chauffeur).
     
  18. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    That's all good and well but if I am managing/timing 2 epic days per season due to family constraints I predict ill be riding half days inbound to keep the skills sharp, sidecountry afternoons. Alas. Not going to happen on a weds/thurs
    :( boo
    So, weather. Holding firm on the charts. Not a massive snow event but a quality one, cold and windy.
     
  19. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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  20. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    the western parts of the ranges (eg. Grampians, Mt Macedon, Yarra Ranges) will capture much of the moisture. Good for Baw Baw and Lake Mountain not so good for the majors. And the vic resorts will get higher snows but the quality will be uniform. Very dry snow (in terms of Australia)
     
  21. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Would anyone part from those living here even notice ?
     
  22. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I don't really agree with that. IMO

    When the moisture moves through tomorrow afternoon:

    [​IMG]

    You can see the winds are mostly from the NW, or WNW
    [​IMG]

    The winds swing to the west / SW on Wednesday, by then it's largely dried up.
     
  23. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    BoM Update (Snowies)

    Forecast for the rest of Monday
    Mostly clear. Medium (40%) chance of showers about the ranges, most likely later this evening. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Snow possible above 1600 metres. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h.

    Chance of snow
    60% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    0% at 1000m
    Tuesday 12 July
    Partly cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of showers or snow about the ranges, high (70%) chance elsewhere. The chance of a thunderstorm with possible hail. Winds northwesterly 35 to 50 km/h tending westerly 35 to 45 km/h in the evening.

    No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Chance of snow
    90% at 1800m
    80% at 1400m
    30% at 1000m
    Wednesday 13 July
    Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of snow showers about the ranges, slight (30%) chance elsewhere. Winds westerly 30 to 45 km/h increasing to 35 to 50 km/h in the morning.

    Chance of snow
    70% at 1800m
    70% at 1400m
    30% at 1000m
    Thursday 14 July
    Mostly sunny. Areas of morning frost. Slight (20%) chance of a snow shower about the alpine peaks in the morning. Near zero chance of rain elsewhere. Winds westerly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light during the evening.

    Chance of snow
    20% at 1800m
    10% at 1400m
    Below 5% at 1000m
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Google is your friend. A good intro...


    Not to mention neither of these ranges have the prominence or area to cause much (if any) shadowing.
     
  25. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Just for giggles... Canberra

    Tuesday 12 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min 3
    Max 11
    Showers.
    Possible rainfall: 2 to 8 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80% [​IMG]
    Canberra area
    Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers from the late morning. Winds northwesterly 25 to 40 km/h.

    No UV Alert, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

    Wednesday 13 July
    Summary
    [​IMG]
    Min -1
    Max 6
    Morning shower or two. Snow possible. Windy.
    Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mm
    Chance of any rain: 70% [​IMG]
    Canberra area
    Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers in the morning. Snow possible in the morning. Winds west to northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h becoming westerly 25 to 35 km/h in the late afternoon then becoming northwesterly and light in the late evening.
     
    #425 DidSurfNowSki, Jul 11, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2016
  26. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold Dedicated Member
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    I reckon it will top up to levels that's been lost the last week or so.
     
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  27. tomtankman

    tomtankman Active Member

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    Any meteorology textbook will have a chapter on lapse rates and lifting. Its just a case of applying the theory to the real world.
     
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  28. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Yellow arrows is the path of precipitation from my interpretation. First it passes SW Vic (a few cm at Grampians maybe?), Melbourne then branches of to South Gippsland and to the Ranges. Layer of white (25cm) at BB and LM, 20-30cm at Buller, more (35 cm) at Falls and Hotham, 30cm at Snowies, <2cm at Canberra, System widens and goes out

    Purple arrows is the cold air

    I think the low level snow will occur on South Gippsland
     
  29. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    IMO the issue with this system is that with the low so far south, it's relatively "shallow" and doesn't really go that far north. But far enough to deliver to the majors, at least to the 20-30cm range IMO.
     
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  30. snowduck

    snowduck Dedicated Member
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    BOM forecast for snowfalls on Mount Lofty in Adelaide, tomorrow morning
     
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  31. glengary

    glengary Dedicated Member
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    BOM for the NTH. East tomorrow saying heavy falls poss. up to 80mm. in the East. If that is the East of the Nth. East then Falls should get thumped as it is the most East of the North East. Sound confusing, does to me.
     
  32. Philski1961

    Philski1961 Active Member

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    Off topic but signs of another reasonable system July 22-24 so while we might have this system just replace what was lost, in ten days we might again head into positive base increase territory.
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Sorry I disagree with you here too.
    IMO your arrows don't accurately reflect in the movement of wind or precip for anytime during the next 36 hours (the bulk of the snowfall). Take your arrows away and you can see Gippsland is almost rain shadowed from the entire event, this tells me that the majority of the inbound moisture is due in from the WNW/NW (shadowed by BB & southern alps) and this is supported in the 850mb model CC posted above. Look at the direction of the isotachs (not the isobars on a pressure map).
     
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  34. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    The only places where cover is thin are high traffic groomers. These places are thin all the time. Off piste is where you need depth and that depth is already there. i.e. -all the big low points and vegetation are filled. So anything from here on is much more than a repair job.
     
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  35. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Any opinions re the chances of there being skiable snow from low levels (i.e. TBJ) at Mt Stirling by late this week?
     
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  36. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    About perpendicular to that long yellow arrow you have. Hence all the colour along the range.
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Not much of a base below ~1400m so I'd say not even worth it, as you'll only see maybe 20-25cm of baseless snow below 1400m. Your call dude. How much do you value the base of your skis/board?
     
  38. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    I agree Claude, and that's basis of the moisture comment. Its not just cold air going over hills, it needs to be feed moisture which produces snow. (happy to be wrong I am skiing Saturday)
     
  39. Cuddles

    Cuddles Active Member

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    Ok so you don't have any links, thanks I think
     
  40. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Part of the Furniture
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    Moisture has been pretty accurate so far. Has been 45mm or so at Perisher as forecast. More moist air moving in through Melbourne at present will give more rain / snow tonight (10-15mm) forecast). Then the good stuff moves in mid morning tomorrow. AXS R showing 50mm+ for NSW 10am Tuesday to 10am wednesday. Plenty of white puffs in that speckled mass to make me think its on the money.
     
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  41. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Thanks, I'll take what I can get.
     
  42. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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  43. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I said South Gippsland. If you watch the TV weather or other credible weather channels, it says low snow in South Gippsland. East Gippsland will just get rain (heavy). My arrows point the precipitation path of where the precipitation will go
     
  44. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Good on Wednesday and Thursday, melting on weekend IMO
     
  45. stridercdh

    stridercdh Active Member

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    Thanks, I'm looking at going up on Friday. Fingers crossed it'll be ok. Willing to walk to the snowline if necessary.
     
  46. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    You might have to. I might be skiing down to Mirimbah on Wednesday morning
     
  47. neck_deep

    neck_deep Active Member

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    What would the gurus predicte yields the best time. Hotham tonight for two days or buller/Stirling for 2. Not overly concerned about wind hold. Just on the fence and struggling to decide.
     
  48. gettingtooold

    gettingtooold Dedicated Member
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    And you might not. Too much NE wind here rather than NW, W or SW. Can't see it happening for Buller. Really not sure about this but after many years checking out weather patterns, IMO it is a long way far from a massive snow event. As always, happy to be proved wrong. :)
     
    #448 gettingtooold, Jul 11, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2016
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  49. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    Make that a westerly. The air should be cool enough
     
  50. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Certainty IMO. I'm thinking of hitting Stirling on Thursday.
     
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