Predictions 11-13th August, Please Sir I Want Some More...

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, Aug 2, 2018.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    It wobbled a bit the other day but I think largely GFS and EC are in cahoots over the 11th & 12th now. The Canadian is the outlier but has shown interest in previous runs.

    Progression looks good on both GFS and EC this morning. Temps are suffice, although this morning GFS suggests even QLD gets a cold shot.

    I think there’s a fair chance of upgrades as we see things peak more towards the SE with ridging.

    15-30cm here at the moment IMO.

    EC


    GFS


     
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  2. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn Addicted
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  3. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    AXS is with it too.
    Pretty much modelling a weeks worth starts tomorrow.
    [​IMG]
     
  4. MickM

    MickM One of Us
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    I am at Buller 9th-12th.

    I know it is a long way out, but what are your predictions for wind during this timeframe?
     
  5. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    not sure why the copy paste didnt work above ?
    changed settings somewhere @Richard
    here's a snip.
     
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  6. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Some crazy cold air in the Australian Bight on 00Z GFS on 10th August. How's this for an atmospheric temp profile South of Eucla:
    500 HPa -37c
    700 HPa -17c
    850 HPa -6c

    Imagine if that was 1500km due East! (Almost Sea Level snow IMO). Which it might be by 11-12th August.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    It’s no surprise how dry that air is too, given the temps... proper polar.

    EDIT: actually fairly humid atmos, it’s just it doesn’t yield much precip.
     
  8. squanchy

    squanchy First Runs

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    IMO this period drying out a little in the latest model run
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC's got some wobble on the 00z run. GFS goes for low-level snow (sea level snowfall in Tas/~500m in Vic) ATM.
    Model divergence, and light to moderate falls are apparent in this period IMO.

    EC (00z) westerly ridge influenced frontal system


    GFS (06z) signals a cold, relatively dry polar outbreak
     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC has backed off on this system with a staunch ridge from the West. And upgrade on moisture for GFS as it largely remains bullish for the period.

    EC


    GFS
     
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  11. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    AXS precip really kicking on into Sunday.
    Has that ridgey feel to it tho.
    IMO
    Standing by.
     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS's keenness on the 10th (and thereafter) is supported by a strong wave on the LWT.
    Note the 4 distictive nodes around the pole. Neg SAM at it's peak IMO.
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    4 Nodes on EC too. GFS and EC almost identical.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    As per Pow & 7w above ^^
    Greg Evans / Tiffany lamb ???
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    BUT
    the biz.
    GFS porn
    [​IMG]

    meets da EC ridge / clipper.
    [​IMG]
     
  15. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us
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    Really liking the look of this one too. You're on fire Pow:thumbs:
     
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  16. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    EC only vaguely interested. IMO

    [​IMG]
     
  17. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us
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    What peaked my interest was the progged position of the leading high. Centered off Brisb on Thursday and weak. Lots of room for the trailing to slingshot a low north. BUT lots of weather between now and then so it's a wait n see for me, with a positive vibe.
     
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  18. Kopite

    Kopite Addicted

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    Please get this locked in. Demo day at Perisher last week lead to new skis that will need a powting (verb; a trip taken for pleasure, including copious amounts of pow).
     
  19. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room
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    Piqued ;)

    But I'll be there, I hope its great!
     
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  20. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn Addicted
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    GFS looks really good
     
  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    Yes. it looks minty atm. Looks warm though.
     
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  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    Not too much precip ( hopefully) ahead of the zero line. Great heights for 850 hPa. IMO
     
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    Not too bad at all for EPS at 168hours imo. The EPS 5 day averages are very good. EC upgrades to come IMO.
     
  24. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    They all have something significant happening.
    Cut off being suggested on the WZ mslp charts 144hrs. (CMC, GFS, EC & AXS).
    All have the High off Brisvegas as Fallen mentioned ^^.
    Now do I play the mental health day card on Friday or the Monday......
    :D
     
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  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    We are still in the earlyish days of bilinear interpolation of data for that date range. Current obs sometimes boost ensemble probability for more instability. Looks hopeful though.
     
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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    Almost Identical to previous run.
     
  27. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    No, it's a big downgrade IMO. Still snow there though.


    I am going for 5-15cm at the moment.
     
  28. IAB

    IAB A Local
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    ^ Aren't those charts for completely different dates?
     
  29. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    yep.
    think @Kletterer likely posted in wrong thread
     
  30. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Oh yes.
    Still a big downgrade though
     
  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    Oops i did get wrong thread. It is almost identical to run 6 hours prior though.
     
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Loading Dock Manager
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    Lifting like a cake ahead of the front.
     
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  33. doogasnow

    doogasnow Hard Yards

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    I know this system is still a fair way out but gee it looks pretty good for low level snow next weekend on accessg and gfs tonight!! IMO
     
  34. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Yep. -5c at 850Hpa in Southern Vic usually results in snow falling in weird places. Saturday afternoon and night looks like it could be rather speccy, IMO
     
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  35. doogasnow

    doogasnow Hard Yards

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    Does -5 at 850hpa translates to snow around 4-500m herm?
     
  36. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Depends a bit on MSLP at the time. I reckon snow in Ballarat and on the Dandenongs is on the cards.
     
  37. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Yeah GFS looks good. 50cm+

    And yes, that's a maximum of 120cm over the next 10 days.


    This chart may answer your question. Based on this chart alone, I'd say 400m for your location (South Gippy IIRC). This says snow in Ballarat, Dandenongs, Mt Clear (Melba Hwy btwn Yarra Glen and Yea), Mt Macedon, etc, etc.

    EC also says something like 500-700m. But much less snowfall.
     
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  38. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    And I will also add this. Summary of weather predictions based on Perisher.
     
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  39. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Jane's come in with 5-15 this morning.
     
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  40. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Into 4 day window now. Looks an okay little top up.

    [​IMG]
     
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  41. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    13deg and 15mm forecast for Adelaide for Saturday - suggests there should be the goods again.
     
  42. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    AXS is modelling 3 days of precip. and favourable 850 temps.
    IMO.
     
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  43. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    looking for the 5280 line crossing alps with a sw wind to finish it off, with a clearing high. time to get into the alpine early next week.

    [​IMG]
     
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  44. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ...
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    BOM are predicting a top of 5 degrees at Perisher on Sat 11th. What is the likelihood of pre-frontal r*** with this event? At this stage they are not predicting WHEN the precipitation will fall ...
     
  45. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Jane said this morning that it will be warm in the NW before the front but should be snow straight away as the front brings plenty of cold air with it. Colour me sceptical.
     
  46. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ...
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    I think I’ll take your scepticism (unfortunately for the snow).
     
  47. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    It's not implausible depending on when the cold air and moisture arrive, but I can see a repeat of last Friday night's front which took a while to wash the heat out of the air before it could change to snow. Maybe not though. Jane calling 10-20cm for the front so we'll where it lands in that range.
     
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  48. OlCol

    OlCol Hard Yards

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    There is possibility of a short sunny spell mid morning before the front hits. May only be up to that temp for a short time if at all. EC predicting only 1deg C, but they are often off by 2 deg. The front hits with cold air so should be all good. Its still a way off but thats what i see in the models at the moment.
     
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  49. glengary

    glengary One of Us
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  50. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us
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    Historically, pre frontal becomes much less likely from 1st week of August into September. Sure, we have seen big pre frontal during this period over the years but its normally in more marginal seasons....

    It's only the 8th August with 50 to 70cm of fresh in the last 4 days. Spencer's should be tickling the 2m base.... its game on for 2.5m at Spencers by this time next week. IMO.

    Personally, I'm booked for Sept 5th for 5 days. Putting my money where my mouth is.... so to say. :thumbs: