Predictions 11-13th July Upper Cut Off

Telezacski

A Local
Ski Pass
Mar 19, 2010
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Goooo Betty...............

D30ED06A-C905-4A3C-B148-BB29205C2F36.jpeg

i believe it was a different tigers player who is referred to as back door betty....

sorry off topic
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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Jane Bunn likes a little MR action:
Updated: Thursday July 9th, 7pm

We have snow on the way this weekend, and it may continue early next week, but only on the highest peaks. I’d expect 10 to 20 cm of snow on upper elevations, with rain to follow, and 30 to 50 cm snow on the highest peaks of NSW.

The heaviest falls should be well north of the alps. The alps may see up to 50mm of rain (Sydney could see 200mm). This may produce 10 to 30 cm of snow on the highest peaks of NSW.

FRIDAY: Cloud building. The chance of showers, increasing during the evening, particularly in the west. The chance of a thunderstorm.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY: Widespread showers tending to persistent precipitation. Likely to turn cold enough for snow above 1500m later on Saturday afternoon, and stay cold enough through Sunday. 10 to 20 cm of snow (above 1500m).

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY: Showers tending to persistent rain, falling as snow at times above 1800m (mainly in the north, closest to the cold pool). 10 to 30 cm of snow on the highest peaks of NSW. It eases during Wednesday.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY: Cold nights and sunny days. Dry across the alps.
 
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CarveMan

I Never Slice
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May 12, 2000
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aussieskier.com
Could go anyway this one.

Big believer in Murphy's law and considering the Vic lock downs......... well you can guess
Problem with this one is, when you look at a system and think ‘where’s the cold gonna come from?’ it means donuts for Buller. Buller never gets snow from weird-ass systems, it needs to be pretty straightforward with an obvious source of cold air from the SW.

Maybe that’s the extension of Murphy’s law - the one open resort in Vic won’t get any snow from it.
 

Maroubra Seal

Hard Yards
Aug 15, 2017
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Monday QPF for OCF:
Screen Shot 2020-07-10 at 8.51.54 am.png


Temps on EC this morning are supportive of snow above 1700m for much of Monday. Positively, lowering temps are likely into Tue AM, but moisture flow starts to move Eastwards with the low's movement.

Almost every source looking more supportive this morning (BOM, Jane, Windy EC, yr.no). This gets me excited for 9am Monday 13 July at Perisher!
upload_2020-7-10_10-30-29.png
 

SMSkier

One of Us
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Oct 4, 2016
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Don’t know where the weather channel gets its data? Anyhow, they are calling 24 cms for PV. Also nominated up to 50 cms up on the Alpine. Like everyone, they also indicated it’s a tricky system to forecast. I’ll take the 50 cents for BC....

204F09DF-36DB-4A7F-8899-72267ACA4EDD.jpeg
 

7wombathead

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Aug 4, 2010
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I Note fairy big discrepancy between Access G3 at 72 hrs and 84 hrs.

I suspect that they are different models. Does anybody know??????????????????

Access G3 at 72 hrs looks better.


IDY20201.T-700hPa.072.png

IDY20120.T-700hPa.084.png
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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I Note fairy big discrepancy between Access G3 at 72 hrs and 84 hrs.

I suspect that they are different models. Does anybody know??????????????????

Access G3 at 72 hrs looks better.


IDY20201.T-700hPa.072.png

IDY20120.T-700hPa.084.png
Nil discrepancy, same model. It's just you're looking at the cold air leap frog the Main Range in those plots. Inline with other global models.
It's pretty useless until it deepens in the Tasman TBH.
 
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The Fallen

One of Us
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May 7, 2015
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Don’t know where the weather channel gets its data? Anyhow, they are calling 24 cms for PV. Also nominated up to 50 cms up on the Alpine. Like everyone, they also indicated it’s a tricky system to forecast. I’ll take the 50 cents for BC....

204F09DF-36DB-4A7F-8899-72267ACA4EDD.jpeg

Generally, I take the Weather Channel and double it. They always underestimate.
 

stormkite2000

One of Us
Jan 1, 2020
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Don’t know where the weather channel gets its data? Anyhow, they are calling 24 cms for PV. Also nominated up to 50 cms up on the Alpine. Like everyone, they also indicated it’s a tricky system to forecast. I’ll take the 50 cents for BC....

204F09DF-36DB-4A7F-8899-72267ACA4EDD.jpeg

They are a meteorological company with some of the best meteorological brains out there ie Michael Ventrice and a host of others. Also they are likely to have in house tools available to them we never see in public.
 

Outlooker

One of Us
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Mar 20, 2003
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Bom have upped the numbers for Monday at Perisher. That should turn things around.

Perisher Valley Forecast
No warnings for New South Wales

Forecast issued at 4:25 pm EST on Friday 10 July 2020.

Forecast for the rest of Friday
Summary
partly-cloudy.png

Partly cloudy.
Chance of any rain: 30%
rain_30.gif

Alpine area
Cloudy. Slight (30%) chance of a shower. Snow possible above 1700 metres. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds north to northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Saturday 11 July
Summary
snow.png

Min -3
Max 4
Snow showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 5 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
rain_90.gif

Alpine area
Cloudy. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northwesterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the early afternoon.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

7 day Town Forecasts
Precis Icon Location Min Max
snow.png
Thredbo Top Station -3 2
snow.png
Perisher Valley -3 4
Sunday 12 July
Summary
snow.png

Min -3
Max 3
Early fog. Snow showers.
Possible rainfall: 2 to 4 mm
Chance of any rain: 90%
rain_90.gif

Alpine area
Cloudy. Areas of fog in the early morning. Very high (90%) chance of snow showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northeasterly 15 to 25 km/h becoming light in the morning.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Monday 13 July
Summary
snow.png

Min -2
Max 2
Snow. Becoming windy.
Possible rainfall: 35 to 50 mm
Chance of any rain: 100%
rain_100.gif

Alpine area
Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of snow. Heavy snow falls possible. Winds southeasterly 50 to 70 km/h increasing to 55 to 75 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection not recommended, UV Index predicted to reach 2 [Low]

Tuesday 14 July
Summary
snow.png

Min -1
Max 2
Snow showers. Windy.
Possible rainfall: 10 to 15 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%
rain_95.gif

Alpine area
Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds south to southeasterly 60 to 80 km/h.

Wednesday 15 July
Summary
snow.png

Min -2
Max 3
Snow shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 70%
rain_70.gif

Alpine area
Cloudy. High (70%) chance of snow showers, most likely during the morning. Winds southeasterly 35 to 50 km/h decreasing to 15 to 20 km/h later.
 
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RXI73D

Addicted
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Jun 17, 2005
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Just want to send a message to say thanks to all your insights and input. I rely on this info for my own use and planning and I learn so much from everyone’s input. I know nothing about reading these but you guys definitely explain and dumb them down when people ask.

I appreciate the efforts and info you guys put in. Keep up the good work, I’m sure I’m not the only one that appreciates all these insights and info.
 

Gregah

One of Us
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Jul 17, 2016
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Someone mentioned this a few days ago. The snow that falls before the wind shift on Monday will occur with unusually light winds (for Australia) - BOM reckons ~20kmh. Prediction: a viral explosion of "winter wonderland" photos and media references.

upload_2020-7-10_17-36-42.png
 
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