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Predictions 11-13th July Upper Cut Off

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jul 4, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I believe @tomtankman has some inside knowledge on Aus SkyWeather news.
     
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  3. steeps

    steeps One of Us

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    What’s interesting between yesterday’s BOM forecast for Sydney next week and the mountains v today’s is this. Yesterday’s Tuesday and Wednesday’s rain forecast for Sydney was upwards of 120mm. Today much less so at 35mm. Yet the snow fall prediction for PV went from 30mm for Monday and Tuesday to 65mm upper range. I gather this is the favourable movement of the Low being positioned further South in today’s analysis. So. Being a Sydney Sider. I will I’ll have less to worry about my place flooding when I’m skiing and more to smile about cause I’ll be in PV. Winning !!!!!!
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Be VERY prepared for marginal conditions Monday, it's reliant on adiabatic influences (strong wind).
    The snowfalls for the resorts hang in the balance (snow above 1600m) IMO, whilst the MR-proper will pick-up what BoM suggests.

    The cold air is there but so is the wrapping warm moist air.
    The difference is really in the low broadening & pushing Eastwards by early Tuesday PM, and half our luck IMO.
     
  5. steeps

    steeps One of Us

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    I'm a proud New South Welshman
    Yes. But I have always been a a half glass full type of Aussie skier. Otherwise you would get depressed season after season. I have my good luck charms in tow. My kids. Last three seasons they have brought Ullr each time !
     
  6. jish33

    jish33 Early Days

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    2.5 feet of snow on the upper hills of the ACT. Beat that NSW.

    NSW comfortably beaten by the mighty ACT according to the forecast.
     
  7. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

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    I've had some good luck over the past few years, being down at the snow during the week of the peak snow depth each year since 2016 and enjoying awesome condition each July since I started going more often in 2017. Hopefully this year is no different on the awesome conditions and we get plenty of snow.

    Last year it snowed at +7 when I was at Perisher, I will bring my good luck with me
     
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  8. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    A Tinderry Mtns special perhaps?
     
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  9. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    ECL elephant snot for a solid base?
     
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  10. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Can be good for that for sure if the temps are favourable, so much for snowmaking runs on lower Thredbo though.

    It still confuses me why Thredbo dont have the flexibility on the crackenback side of the hill to operate from mid up for these kinds of times. Oh well bushranger is still nice down to bunny walk :)
     
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  11. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    18zEC Looks ok for flakes over the alps.
     
  12. Slowman

    Slowman One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    They do usually facilitate this on the Snowgums chair by allowing uploading from the Lover’s Leap mid station (near the Cat Shed). They can also upload at the mid station on the Kosciusko chair but to do this the chair speed has to be slowed down to a fixed cable chair speed. I’ve actually only seen this done once quite a few years ago in mid September when some rain storms had washed away all the cover and snowmaking below there.

    Over the years they seem to have figured out how to keep at least one strip of snow (slush might be a better description) in place until the end of the season. Not so much fun to ski on but the trade off is they can continue to run the chair at high speed.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stay on Topic
    Weather predictions only.
     
  14. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

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    Jane's output is showing 40-50cm above 1500m for NSW resorts Sunday through Wednesday. Slightly more for Perisher than Thredbo.
     
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  15. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    wide diurnal temp variations considering the lack of sun indicate wriggle room for BOM IMO.
    I am happy with elephant snot /gelati as a base builder for Falls bc.
     
  16. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

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    EC/Jane auto output looking special for Monday for Perisher. (1800m)
     
  17. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Could be insanely windy Mon + Tuesday too.
    Strangely I have noticed it sometimes counteracts the Thredbo katabatic wind when it comes from the east and can be OK close to the escarpment?
     
  18. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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  19. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

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    I doubt its possible, but imagine if the best possible forecast came off and Perisher got 78cm of snow out of this system. Numbers from BOM seem to have some confidence it will snow.
     
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  20. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday going for 100% not a lot of ambiguity...
     
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  21. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    That'll put my 40cm call to shame. Fingers crossed it comes off.

    Looking like another back end event.
     
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  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Corin Forest should do really well out of this (above 1500m) IMO.
     
  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    It will be interesting to see if those cm's totals above do verify over the monday.






    EC



     
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  24. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Given it's at 1200m that's not a great snow level...
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    More meaning that area.
     
  26. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Yep peaks up top in that area (Ginini / Gingera) look like getting a solid fall. Bimberi will be coated.
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    One Foot Monday TM
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Monday GFS precip forecast, snow to 1600m IMO:
     
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  29. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Snow in the forecast for CT’s on Monday.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC temps for Monday are Marginal for 1700m, gonna be wet at times on Monday, throughout the MR resorts IMO.
    Positively, looks great above this ele.
     
  31. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Question:

    Are temps marginal at 1700m down South over the Snowys but more favourable up here on the CTs because of the cold pool being further north?
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's right, but the trade off for the CT's is the height.
    CT's sit lower than the MR so it's 'marginal' in relative terms for much of the CT's too.
    There's also the issue of moisture feed for the CT's which sits in behind coastal escarpments etc. so needs some strong onshore flow to have much of chance Monday/Tues.
     
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  33. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Thanks Pow. Makes sense :)
     
  34. telecrag

    telecrag Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Selwyn system!
     
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  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    100%if there was a Selwyn :(
     
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  36. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Less love for Vic Monday by the looks?

    If the snow line is fairly high, less precipitation is Probably better for us plague-ies?
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-C QPF to Monday 4pm (when temps start to get dicey for the mid-mountain)
     
  38. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    Shows much needed rain for South Coast, but as usual too much for some. Lets see if Bega really gets 100 mm ...W
     
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  39. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks knife edge between wet snow and clear snow. Looked better yesterday but appears to be warming up at the wrong time for the precip to come through tmw.
     
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  40. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah those totals in that ally are reliant on the tasman lows position imo. That feature part of the forecast still has to verify.
     
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  41. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Other than the snow itself - the big question for Monday and Tuesday with this weather is access in and out of Perisher along the road of hell. With the skitube expensive and therefore empty - the timing of snow falls on Monday arvo could turn into a 4 hour trip. Skitube tickets have to be purchased by midnight the day before day of use. All very complicated and expensive to deal with. As we get closer to the event - what's the general thinking on timing. Or is it near impossible with this system to have any idea of what might actually happen tomorrow. Normally I wouldn't put this question here - and just tell people to get the tube, as I would normally do - no matter what the weather was.
     
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  42. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Just had a quick eyeball (now) of what wz thinking with their snow forecast.

     
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  43. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    BoM has Bega with 51 to 98 mm Mon to Wed, so upper prediction close. WZ has 20 to 40 mm today and Mon then 1 to 5 mm next 2 days. ATM the low is spinning over W NSW about 200 km NE of Mildura and only moving slowly east. Could be late for its Tasman date LOL.... W
     
  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    EC 18Z Snowline
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plenty of inbound moisture building to the East of the GDR.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    1700m the magic number for tomorrow IMO
     
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  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Period ending 1 am Tuesday
     
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  48. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    I hope that ec snow plot above does verify with cms. Myself i see question mark with the with needed constant -/0 850mb temps being there over the period for me. So its wait n see for me.
     
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  49. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    2-3C 850s usually enough for snow down to the bottom of perisher (around 1600m)
     
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  50. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    Smiggs is often the line