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Predictions 11-13th July Upper Cut Off

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Jul 4, 2020.

  1. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    @Snowmaker7 other than a few intermittent model runs. I have not liked this system from the get-go with the marginal on the fringe of the alp cold air coverage. I hope its the last of its kind. This season. Looking to what it does as a feature when in the tasman.

    There are some very astute predictors on this forum ie pow and co.
    Predicting this system with any real confidence with the pre modelshemozzle has been no walk in the park.
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, I think 20-30cm tomorrow above 1700m for the MR.
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think we'll see BoM's numbers for PV & Thredbo rationalised in a few mins time in the PM forecast.
    30-50mm seems quite bullish. Just a hunch.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Actually scrap that, AXS-C totals sighted. 30-60mm seems about right for tomorrow.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Shes a a scrapper this one.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hard to keep up with the model changes!
     
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  8. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Where all scrappers in this country.

    Meanwhile, how are those temps looking for Monday arvo. They looked excellent yesterday and then faded today.
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Actually not bad on EC 00z this arvo.
    Similar resort temps to today, but we trade in a few degrees in the uppers. I still think we're good for snow above 1650-1700m tomorrow IMO.
     
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  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    GFS and EC look to be hanging in there . Surprisingly no warm layers on the Skew Ts thus far.
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM upping Charlotte's precip to 40-70mm tomorrow.
    I think we can hang our hats on a foot of fresh tomorrow above 1650m as a minimum IMO
     
  12. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    4am to 7am tonight looks promising imo.
     
  13. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    4am GFS lifting activity at our beloved DGZ region.
     

    Attached Files:

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  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Sounding for Today Vs Tomorrow:
    More PWAT @ similar temps.
    +1C @ ~1500m and with an impressive DGZ.


    On face value you'd expect wintery mix below ~1400m at times, which is quite impressive given the fall rates progged.
     
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  15. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    impressive as in saturated tomoz ?
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    yup, depth of moisture stacked through the entire DGZ means more heavy falls of 50 cent pieces.
    More of what happened today but heavier, more sustained.
    4-5cm an hour are possible IMO.
     
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  17. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stellar dendrites at zero ...
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    More white noise in front of the telly in Jindy.
     
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  19. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't you know it
     
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  20. SMSkier

    SMSkier One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Pleased to learn its falling there. We can see Jindy from the high point on our property... yet to see the rains here. A few mm at 1100 ASL....
     
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  21. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stopped now.
    Though radar looks likely.
    Need the moisture to stream across Bunyan way...
     
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  22. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    Galoshes needed to get to LJH.
     
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  23. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ha... It's closed cause of cv19 ...
    Naughty people .
    Off topic
    It's quite remarkable. Today's temp in Jindy has gone from 4.3 to 5.1. Now back to 4.2.
    Proper Vancouver weather
     
  24. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    Off topic,....didn’t realise it was still closed, as we have people sitting at the bars / tables in our town and I’m zoned out now on other states restrictions as we are not going anywhere soon as NZ looks goooone for us. :( I was watching the radar this arvo of stn nsw and all those large blobs of blue/green/yellow coming in from the east towards the mountains is not something that you see everyday.
     
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Off topic. They got busted with too many people.
    Temp wise. I'd put the snowline at 1350 at mo.
     
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  26. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

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    :eek:
    Hope it delivers big for you and all those lucky enough to have a slide.
     
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  27. steeps

    steeps One of Us

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    I'm a proud New South Welshman
    I’ll let you know !
     
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  28. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Driving back to Çairns tomorrow from western Sydney via Katoomba, Lithgow and Mudgee. Should I expect any surprises?
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC going for 18mb drop on the Tasman Low 0400hrs Tuesday to 0400hrs Wednesday. Decent upgrade for swell and coastal impacts.
     
  30. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Google says snow in Jindy tomorrow.

    Accu says clear stuff...
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Possible wintery mix at best early AM IMO.
     
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  32. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thankfully don't have to be in Cooma until 1pm!
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Peri Snow Stake will be itching 32nd notch by tomorrow first light, I reckon.
     
  34. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Had reports from friends staying at Lake Crackenback that is has been snowing there, but this weekend is the first time they've seen snow so my guess is sleety rain that occasionally looks kind of white and flakey.
     
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  35. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Maybe some very wet snow tmw middle of the day at smigs - Valley could get a bit damp for awhile as well - but looks like the final effort later tomorrow will be a bout of cold precip - making for a very polite Tuesday to complete that ever classic schoolies 2nd week save from the abyss that is winter in Australia.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    12z GFS going for >50cm in the Northern reaches of the KNP today (Monday), solid upgrade and given the short range, shouldn’t be far off the mark.

    over-verifying on EC at the moment, GFS might have bagged this one.
     
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  37. GlendaN

    GlendaN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Nailed it
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You’d be a good tradesperson if you like that for ‘first light’

    2-3cm to go!;)
     
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  39. GlendaN

    GlendaN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Well I'm up and it's after 5am but good point. Good to see some snow.
     
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  40. GlendaN

    GlendaN One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Second try definitely morning ;)
     
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  41. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Will this be a 3ft storm for Perisher? Snowzilla?
     
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  42. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    91.44 cm to you, we are metric here .
     
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  43. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Models overcooked the temps.
    Currently 0.5 degrees in Jindy where yr.no was indicating it would be 4.
     
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  44. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    Bega 56 mm to 9 am so halfway there with 7 hours to go. Very welcome rain and not in flood proportions so far... W
     
  45. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    Bluebird day in Sydney as it seems to be in centre of circulation. Main cloudbands coming in from NE are moving south from Nowra to Batemans Bay on WZ 3 hour satellite loop. But still heading to Kosciuszko. Great news for skiers and farmers...W
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    FWIW the low is touch and go for bombgenesis tomorrow through Weds AM.
     
  47. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    cheers for that.
    I've been scratching my head for a few days looking at 850 temps / precip.
    I quite didn't have the confidence in this to deliver some of you guys did.
    must be my radar getting olde and calibrated to the great australian fizz.
    #vibe

    edit : I observe the Monaro & Badja district ( Braidwood - Cooma) farms getting much needed maximums out this this so far today.
     
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  48. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

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    This needs to be parked here.. 35-40sm so far. How much more..BOOM
    Lack of wind is the key.. Almost perfectly placed this one.
     
  49. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Another foot for the Main Range IMO over the next day.
     
  50. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    Pls - cyclogenesis. LOL... W