Predictions 11-18th June - extended edition

Discussion in 'Weather' started by Claude Cat, Jun 4, 2018.

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  1. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    Perhaps something out of the ashes of the 7-10th of June, we might see something for the 11th or 12th.

    EC looks great IMO

    [​IMG]

    CMC is getting there.
    [​IMG]

    GFS isn't with this quite yet.
     
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  2. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    It's my wife's big B-Day.
    14th June.
    She's assured me of a big event.

    I'm more interested in the weather
     
  3. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 First Runs

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    An improvement on the GFS 06z run

    [​IMG]
     
  4. kiter

    kiter Hard Yards

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    Oh no . Now it’s got the mozz
     
  5. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    GFS isn't anything like the other two models IMO.
     
  6. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    EC shows ~20cm for MR at the moment.
    Others less.
    Not quite a season starter just yet.
    Should help the manmade efforts, sure.
    Plenty of time to smooth out in between models and become big (or small) IMO.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS goes a little rogue yet with a big upgrade on the 12z and bold cut off stall for the 11-14th.
    Looks overly exaggerated with a trailing cut off into the bite also.

    The Canuck has a slightly differing scenario equally as big, with back to back cut offs 11-14th.

    Needs work, but despite this, the Synoptic building blocks look great IMO and I think this is our ‘season starter’ once models settle. Dare I say it, it’s indicators have been there for weeks on the Antarctic view ensembles.

    GFS


    The Canuck
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Needs the window extended IMO.

    EC puts it in a little later and rationalised. By the beard of Zeus does it back it with a classic winter front.
    Looking great IMO.
     
  9. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    I'll just leave this here.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    On the ****.
     
    #10 POW_hungry, Jun 5, 2018
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 5, 2018
  11. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Yr.no/EC pretty workable IMO.
    EPS moving away from the period after as well over the last two runs.
    I guess that makes this node official in some sort of capacity.

    Really nice coldpool at 500mb.
     
  12. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    it's good coke though... LOL
     
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  13. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    AXS a tale of two fronts: one hitting 13-14 June, and one coming behind on the 15-16 Jun.


    Looks pretty nice to me, particularly the latter coldfront's potential.
     
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  14. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    yep. good shape on the 2nd front. nice hook.
     
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  15. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

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    Bit off topic, but I love the Clarity of the above (Weather.us) map. Nicely colour coded - good for people with a degree of colour deficiency. And shows one aspect well.

    Fwiw: as a total weather amateur, I find a lot of geototential-type charts quite confusing, sometimes presenting three different parameters, lines everywhere. Yukko ( sounds better in Latin)! My 2 cents.

    On topic:
    I hope this comes off, SE Oz seems to be generally in High P between two big Long wave nodes over WA & NZ. Has to shift eventually!
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS 18z staying rogue and still not really nailing this one, with a cut-off scenario. Looks yuck.
     
  17. Karicta

    Karicta A Local
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    Bye bye Hobart
     
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  18. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    GFS is smoking dope. I'd be ignoring it for the time being.
    IMO
     
  19. Karicta

    Karicta A Local
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    Gotta get excited by something!
     
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  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Of course it is. Funny though.
     
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  21. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    The Canuck looks more realistic than other forecasts. More on the cool and wet side of the ledger.
     
  22. Stephen Allen

    Stephen Allen Hard Yards

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    I'd say EC has had a few tokes...
    [​IMG]
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Dunno how you gather that. On paper EC looks more than realistic IMO.
     
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  24. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn Hard Yards
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    GFS 00z looks like a dogs breakfast
     
  25. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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  26. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    If that’s a Dogs breakfast I’ll hve what Fido is having.
     
  27. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    Looks a bit weird, but the progression is more logical than GFS
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Cold air glancing the Bluff, makes for snow in the East a bit rough.

    Both models are clutching straws, I reckon.
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    My anticipation for EC's 00z run is that the high will ridge out the front under Sou-West WA on the 10th. Giving it more 'peak' eastwards.
     
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  30. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    Looks to be peaking a bit over WA? Perhaps?
    The projection seems more logical IMO

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yeah, very similar to this morning's 12z run. Still works.
     
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  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    And hanging in nicely to the 14th.

    [​IMG]
     
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  33. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    Wife reckons its always snowing on her B-Day. From a young age.
    It does seem quite common.
     
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  34. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Hard Yards

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    If it hits Bluff Knoll, all the east may get is a hot coal
     
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  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Still looking for doughnuts
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    Im still not convinced with EC. The pressure gradient changes from 00Z on the 10th ( next 24- 36 hours ) seem overly funky IMO- taking into account the High positions and movement/ tracking patterns further South. Hope i am wrong though.
     
  36. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Hard Yards

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    'Yr. (kiddin me) no' is goin for over 30cm
     
  37. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike
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    As per EC.
     
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  38. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    Workable based on EC's solution.
     
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  39. Kappy

    Kappy Addicted

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    just added YR.NO 12th - 14th, total 42.7. Checked it twice. :nerd:
     
  40. doogasnow

    doogasnow Hard Yards

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    Accessg sorta looks all over the shop with cut off lows spinning up and wandering around the place.imo
    Not really sure what to make of gfs,but looks a little more straightforward than access ?
    Suppose it will become a lot clearer as we near the weekend
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC/ YrNo.
     
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  42. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Walking on a dream
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    But for where?
     
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  43. doogasnow

    doogasnow Hard Yards

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    That high looks like it nearly anchors over w.a,in a pretty good spot to sit and suck some more fronts up over south east aus if where lucky?
    Dosent really look to be moving east to quickly
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    At 1028hPa central pressure, it's gonna roll over and lay back like your garden-variety Labrador.
    500mb energy (frontal activity) will be fluid.
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS 06Z coming around. Looking a little more in tune with EC now, still a little rogue on it's back-to-back systems though.
    [​IMG]
     
  46. Kappy

    Kappy Addicted

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    perisher is what i entered.
     
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  47. Sno Sno SNO

    Sno Sno SNO Hard Yards

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    2nd front looks more promising than the 1st imo.
    wandering cold pool hanging into the 15th might drag the date range out a bit.
     
  48. Donzah

    Donzah Part of the Furniture
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    Get this weekend out of the way first
     
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  49. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro Hard Yards

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    That is what we want , a friendly high..
     
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  50. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro Hard Yards

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    Bring it on YR , come true for once 45 here
    Does it keep going till October?? lol
     
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