Predictions 11-18th June - extended edition

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 4, 2018.

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  1. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    beers are on ice
     
  2. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    She knows how to rock a frilly dress whatever the environment.
     
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  3. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Tanuki - did your kid steal my kids jacket? Or are you a tight arse too!
     
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  4. Cuddles

    Cuddles One of Us

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  5. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Now thats a nice animation.
     
  6. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Troughs embedded with micro Troughs going by the Sat pic..... the next 18 hours should be good for another 40cm above 1500m. With snow down to 700m.
     
  7. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Settle guys . The mods have a purpose on here and do their job very well . Lets reduce the need for adjustments Refrainment is due .
     
  8. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    gfs And accesr still looking really sharp on tonight’s update ❄️
    Both showing what looks to be 528 cold pool on south west vic door step by 10am Tommoz if I’m reading it correctly?
    Lot of love to come from this system over the next 2 days imo
     
  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep. Later part has been the juiciest looking for days imo.
     
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  10. Tanuki

    Tanuki A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bit of both. Kids, like adults don't really need brand label hype ( tell that to me though). As long as she's dry and warm it's all good.
     
  11. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Zing ! Upgrade for Sunday :)

     
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  12. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Bom still saying 700m snow level for
    Gippsland Tommoz.
     
  13. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Im struggling reading the prediction snow levels put out by the bom,south west vic have a pool of 528 thickness on the doorstep Tommoz morning but there snow level is no lower than 800m?
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Don't rely on one model. EC did away with 528 thickness 4 days ago, GFS has only just cottoned onto it in the 12Z run, this morning.
    BoM is basing it's forecast on a aggregate of models, not just on what you're looking at - AXSR.
     
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  15. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Thanks pow With that sort of fluctuations it must be very hard to pick the snow level?
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    You can often back the right horse if you base it around EC and verify with the others. It's the highest skill model going.
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    :eek: Cyclonic PV midnight Saturday
     
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  18. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    [Mod: deleted] inaccurate!
     
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I go the other way as you know. Throw em into a mixer.
     
  20. tastim

    tastim Early Days

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    Hi guys
    We got alot more rain/drizzle than predicted in Oberon. Cant give you mm's as I have no rain gauge but when the gutters are flowing its all good. In saying that would I be right that we could see a decent fall of snow around the op area. 10cm plus?
     
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  21. derwent

    derwent One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Current obs indicating more action in southern regions
    Next few hours atleast the south will out perform the north
    Edit: In Vic
     
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  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Melbourne looks good for rain again on Saturday 6pm- midnight imo.
     
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS Divergence parameters are showing a more favourable outcome for Vic than NSW for the weekend atm. IMO
     
  24. dainsufficientrightsduck

    dainsufficientrightsduck Hard Yards

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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Really starting to look like a Thredbo surprise special on Sunday, as the SE flow recharges with moisture. Can’t recall the last time we had a foot through the backdoor but certainly a thing.

    One of those 1 in 10 probability scenario IMO.
     
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  26. Arne

    Arne One of Us

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    I remember about 10 years ago Thredbo got over half a metre from a soueaster in the village. Trees snapping. Snow sliding off roofs in massive chunks. Perisher a couple cms. Vico less again.
     
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  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sounds familiar.
    Hens teef.
     
  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Midnight tonight still has something in the tank. IMO Some vapour transfer to boot.
     
  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nice humidity and Vorticity. This beast aint done yet imo.
     
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS ambitious as ever. You'd think it's got half a chance given we're 36 hrs out now.
    [​IMG]
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC only really suggesting 10-15cm at best, but it's the kind of system that would surprise even the best models.
    P.S. Look out Melbourne!?
     
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  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah GFS plots were focusing on Melbs district hard last night. Could track anywhere with this wicked system.
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interestingly, BoM see things more conservatively for now.
    IMO upgrade by BoM tonight.
     
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  34. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Still holding around 700m snow level?
     
  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Hail in the forecast is a good . We like lift.
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'd anticipate a little higher than today. Today's the cold one IMO.
     
  37. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Could that make it interesting for Cooma, Bombala etc?
     
  38. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Love a thredbo special .. feel more confident about that. The rest depends on how fast it moves.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I reckon places like Cooma & Bombala (North of the Border) will be largely shadowed but upper reaches of Omeo etc look good to go IMO.

    The good thing about Thredbo is the mositure comes straight up/down the Thredbo valley on a SSE'er.
     
  40. Arne

    Arne One of Us

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    Comes straight up the Snowy River valley. Just has to get the angle right.
     
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  41. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some more lovin about to hit the NSW resorts, IMO ;)

     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BoM Vic is keen.
    Real keen.
    BoM NSW, sticks to 8-25mm for Thredbo.


     
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  43. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    AXS-R says 30mm 4pm to 10am for the alps
     
  44. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    @POW_hungry your little left mover is starting its business over tassie
    Just south of shipsterns at the moment
     
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  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thundersnow baby.
     
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  46. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    People do get confused by Thundersnow though. The version you get early winter is different from the version you get in spring

    - born from coldies . small hail ---epic crazy good
     
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  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just hope Ben Lommond doesn't gouge too much off it.
     
  48. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rain for Melbs @ 6pm looks to be possibly right on que.
     
  50. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    BlackheathWx calling a 50 % chance of snow for the upper BMs 10pm tonight and tomorrow morning.
     
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