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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Claude Cat, Jun 4, 2018.
beers are on ice
She knows how to rock a frilly dress whatever the environment.
@Tanuki - did your kid steal my kids jacket? Or are you a tight arse too!
Now thats a nice animation.
Troughs embedded with micro Troughs going by the Sat pic..... the next 18 hours should be good for another 40cm above 1500m. With snow down to 700m.
Settle guys . The mods have a purpose on here and do their job very well . Lets reduce the need for adjustments Refrainment is due .
gfs And accesr still looking really sharp on tonight’s update ❄️
Both showing what looks to be 528 cold pool on south west vic door step by 10am Tommoz if I’m reading it correctly?
Lot of love to come from this system over the next 2 days imo
Yep. Later part has been the juiciest looking for days imo.
Bit of both. Kids, like adults don't really need brand label hype ( tell that to me though). As long as she's dry and warm it's all good.
Zing ! Upgrade for Sunday
Bom still saying 700m snow level for
Im struggling reading the prediction snow levels put out by the bom,south west vic have a pool of 528 thickness on the doorstep Tommoz morning but there snow level is no lower than 800m?
Don't rely on one model. EC did away with 528 thickness 4 days ago, GFS has only just cottoned onto it in the 12Z run, this morning.
BoM is basing it's forecast on a aggregate of models, not just on what you're looking at - AXSR.
Thanks pow With that sort of fluctuations it must be very hard to pick the snow level?
You can often back the right horse if you base it around EC and verify with the others. It's the highest skill model going.
Cyclonic PV midnight Saturday
[Mod: deleted] inaccurate!
I go the other way as you know. Throw em into a mixer.
We got alot more rain/drizzle than predicted in Oberon. Cant give you mm's as I have no rain gauge but when the gutters are flowing its all good. In saying that would I be right that we could see a decent fall of snow around the op area. 10cm plus?
Current obs indicating more action in southern regions
Next few hours atleast the south will out perform the north
Edit: In Vic
Melbourne looks good for rain again on Saturday 6pm- midnight imo.
GFS Divergence parameters are showing a more favourable outcome for Vic than NSW for the weekend atm. IMO
Hellava good storm
Really starting to look like a Thredbo surprise special on Sunday, as the SE flow recharges with moisture. Can’t recall the last time we had a foot through the backdoor but certainly a thing.
One of those 1 in 10 probability scenario IMO.
I remember about 10 years ago Thredbo got over half a metre from a soueaster in the village. Trees snapping. Snow sliding off roofs in massive chunks. Perisher a couple cms. Vico less again.
Midnight tonight still has something in the tank. IMO
Some vapour transfer to boot.
Nice humidity and Vorticity. This beast aint done yet imo.
GFS ambitious as ever. You'd think it's got half a chance given we're 36 hrs out now.
EC only really suggesting 10-15cm at best, but it's the kind of system that would surprise even the best models.
P.S. Look out Melbourne!?
Yeah GFS plots were focusing on Melbs district hard last night. Could track anywhere with this wicked system.
Interestingly, BoM see things more conservatively for now.
IMO upgrade by BoM tonight.
Still holding around 700m snow level?
Hail in the forecast is a good . We like lift.
I'd anticipate a little higher than today. Today's the cold one IMO.
Could that make it interesting for Cooma, Bombala etc?
Love a thredbo special .. feel more confident about that. The rest depends on how fast it moves.
I reckon places like Cooma & Bombala (North of the Border) will be largely shadowed but upper reaches of Omeo etc look good to go IMO.
The good thing about Thredbo is the mositure comes straight up/down the Thredbo valley on a SSE'er.
Comes straight up the Snowy River valley. Just has to get the angle right.
Some more lovin about to hit the NSW resorts, IMO
BoM Vic is keen.
BoM NSW, sticks to 8-25mm for Thredbo.
AXS-R says 30mm 4pm to 10am for the alps
@POW_hungry your little left mover is starting its business over tassie
Just south of shipsterns at the moment
People do get confused by Thundersnow though. The version you get early winter is different from the version you get in spring
- born from coldies . small hail ---epic crazy good
Just hope Ben Lommond doesn't gouge too much off it.
Rain for Melbs @ 6pm looks to be possibly right on que.
BlackheathWx calling a 50 % chance of snow for the upper BMs 10pm tonight and tomorrow morning.