1. There's more to this forum than meets the eye!

    We have a vibrant community here conversing about all sorts of non-snow topics such as music, sport, politics and technology. Simply register to reveal all our Apr├Ęs topics.

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

12-14 June (Predictions)

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by snow_hope, Jun 6, 2007.

  1. snow_hope

    snow_hope Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 23, 2004
    Messages:
    383
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    (please go easy - still getting my feet for weather!)

    GFS is showing an interesting set up at +168hrs - I know this can change but I think we should see some flakes from this - further the low SW of Tassie ought to set up a decent southerly flow (is that even what its called?) in the next 24hrs (13th June for some cold air to hit the alps on the leading edge of the high over SA - there also appears to be a fair amount of moisrture in the air..

    What do you think?
    [​IMG]
    (will update)
     
  2. wrxbouy

    wrxbouy Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2005
    Messages:
    398
    Likes Received:
    12
    Location:
    bustin air somewhere
    Damn that high is still there, how long do these linger for in a normal year??(discounting last year)
     
  3. snow_hope

    snow_hope Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 23, 2004
    Messages:
    383
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    no idea, but they do seem to stick around... here though it looks as if the leading edge of the high will pull the moisture + cold air from below Tas up towards the slopes, so it might not be such a bad thing?
     
  4. optimist

    optimist First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2003
    Messages:
    203
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Newcastle
    looks like snow at the Barringtons maybe
     
  5. champion_michael

    champion_michael First Runs

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2007
    Messages:
    151
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Brisbane
    What sort of thickness levels are required for snow in those more northern areas, eg barringtons, new england... ?
    i've noticed GFS predicting a pool of sub 540 thickness over the queensland southern downs and a graziers warning for sleet, but is 540 enough for snow?
     
  6. optimist

    optimist First Runs

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2003
    Messages:
    203
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Newcastle
    Barringtons have a height of about 1550m so the 540 is positioned well for snow
     
  7. snow_hope

    snow_hope Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 23, 2004
    Messages:
    383
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sydney
    i guess I'm hoping for the cold pool to slip south a bit, but either way the 5440 is pretty close to the slopes, so doesn't this mean hopefully a bit of snow on the upper slopes if we're lucky?
     
  8. Creekside Bum

    Creekside Bum Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2001
    Messages:
    99
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    sydney
    as we are looking at charts 24 hours apart, that the cold pool is possibly passing over the resorts but does so quickly and is missed between the two relevent charts, next update will give us more
     
  9. Gimble

    Gimble First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2006
    Messages:
    287
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Newcastle
    Gasp does not appear to agree with gfs I think. GFS is showing a much more promising system, gasp is still holding strong onto that high
     
  10. churchy

    churchy One of Us

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2004
    Messages:
    7,433
    Likes Received:
    6
    yeah, this is pretty tentative at this stage. the ecl progged for the weekend has wobbled around a fair bit. it's been progged out to sea and inland in different model runs over the last few days, so i'm not holding my breath.

    that said, it's a nice little setup. could be worth a bit if it stays where it is. looks a lot like some of those funny early season systems from last year.

    as for the high, i wouldn't worry too much right now - it's in the perfect position to let us get something out of this trough and it will move on in the fullness of time. remember that any winter classic needs a high planted about where that one is...
     
  11. MickM

    MickM One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2001
    Messages:
    4,050
    Likes Received:
    3,045
    Location:
    Gordon, Vic
    Updated charts looking much better for Wedneday now.
     
  12. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2000
    Messages:
    3,022
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Vic, Australia
    Far out latest GFS run looks sweet nice cold front from the 12th-14th possibly 10 cm and then the fun starting with the formation of a ECL on the Wenesday with plenty of cold air around. Still ages out though! be intersting to see if it pans out cause if it does dumpage time [​IMG]
     
    #12 Cliff-jumper_2000, Jun 6, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  13. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    73,872
    Likes Received:
    29,035
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
  14. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    66,433
    Likes Received:
    46,758
    Location:
    Mountains
    ECLs dump on the east side of the mountains ....
     
  15. M-HD

    M-HD First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2002
    Messages:
    6,838
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Not always...

    This system is looking very interesting for rain for Sydney...
     
  16. M-HD

    M-HD First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2002
    Messages:
    6,838
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Looking at the latest run (as of 6Z today) The only model not in step is GASP, And as there is plenty of evidence in the uppers for the cold pool over NSW something has to happen as it hits the warm Eastern waters... I would say the chances of an ECL (albeit northern ECL) are good...
     
    #16 M-HD, Jun 6, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  17. BH

    BH One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2006
    Messages:
    1,092
    Likes Received:
    37
    I like it- Looks like a fair amount of pre frontal rain though.

    Season starter for NSW (hopefully!!)
     
  18. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2003
    Messages:
    2,449
    Likes Received:
    1,476
    Location:
    Sydney
    Not unusual in June. We often have to wait until mid/late June for highs to weaken/move north allowing for season starting snow, sometimes even July... uum yeh and some years it just never happens.

    Nice to see some nice upper cold pools having an affect on the east side of Australia. Gives hope that something will line up nicely for snow soonish.
     
    #18 BlueHue, Jun 6, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  19. Hans

    Hans Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2002
    Messages:
    941
    Likes Received:
    5
    Location:
    Melbourne
    ATM good. [​IMG]
     
    #19 Hans, Jun 6, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  20. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2005
    Messages:
    73,872
    Likes Received:
    29,035
    Location:
    Cranhole, Melbourne, VIC
    yes, but not for too long please.
     
  21. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2013
    Messages:
    0
    Likes Received:
    5
    18th looks interesting - ATM.
     
  22. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 28, 2001
    Messages:
    437
    Likes Received:
    26
    Location:
    Canberra
    The 18!!

    Wow, my charts don't even go that far out.

    Tell me is that big high still there on the 18th?

    It will be touch and go IMOP for these dates 12-14.

    Potential for some big falls if it gets cold enough.

    That ECL will bring some moisture, just need that high to be dragging the cold air at the same time.

    I reckon we will do all right.
     
  23. SteepNDeep

    SteepNDeep First Runs

    Joined:
    May 23, 2002
    Messages:
    10,608
    Likes Received:
    1
    Neither GASP nor GFS still progging this ECL. I think we'll see 10cm of snow to 1000-1200m thanks to the broad, deep southerly fetch.
     
  24. Squidly

    Squidly One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2004
    Messages:
    1,963
    Likes Received:
    42
    Location:
    TAS
    The air pressure might be too high for that, a few cms at the most.
     
  25. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    66,433
    Likes Received:
    46,758
    Location:
    Mountains
    I might get excited in a week
     
  26. SteepNDeep

    SteepNDeep First Runs

    Joined:
    May 23, 2002
    Messages:
    10,608
    Likes Received:
    1
    Beeper, not that I think this is likely, but a similar setup in July 1965 produced some of the heaviest snowfalls across NSW of the 20th century WITH pressures of 1025-1030hPa (!): July 65

    [​IMG]
     
    #26 SteepNDeep, Jun 8, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 14, 2013
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    21,051
    Likes Received:
    30,724
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    SND, evidently that front brought with it some very moist and extraordinarily cold uppers with it.
    Probably something that could be best described as an exception to the rule.
     
  28. SteepNDeep

    SteepNDeep First Runs

    Joined:
    May 23, 2002
    Messages:
    10,608
    Likes Received:
    1
    Indeed! [​IMG]
     
    #28 SteepNDeep, Jun 8, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 11, 2013
  29. carto

    carto First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2005
    Messages:
    34
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Vic Bom have now got this under future developments:

    Scattered showers will develop again on Wednesday, mainly over southern and
    mountain areas, following the passage of a second cold front Tuesday night.
    Snowfalls are likely on the alps and will be possible at lower levels. The day
    will be cool to cold with southwest to southerly winds.
     
  30. Mrstr_Chief

    Mrstr_Chief One of Us

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2004
    Messages:
    1,442
    Likes Received:
    8
    Location:
    Sydney
    The nsw is predicting scatted snow showers all week

    "SNOWY MOUNTAINS REGION FORECAST
    Covering Southern Tablelands and Southwest Slopes above 1200 metres
    Issued at 4:30pm on Sunday the 10th of June 2007

    Warning Summary:
    Nil

    Current Weather Situation and Future Developments
    The deep low that affected the NSW coast over the last few days is now well east
    in the Tasman Sea. Cold frontal movements through SE parts are expected to
    continue shower activity and snow falls into much of this week.

    Forecast for the remainder of Sunday
    Isolated light showers, falling as snow above 1700m. Light to moderate west to
    southwesterly winds, stronger at times about the peaks tending more variable at
    lower elevations.
    chance of snow 1500 m 1900 m
    Night (6 pm/6 am) 10 % 60 %


    Forecast for Monday
    Scattered showers, falling as snow above 1500m. Moderate south to southwest
    winds, fresh at times about higher ground.
    UV Index: 2 [low]
    Thredbo Top Station Snow showers developing. Min: -4 Max: 0
    Perisher Valley Snow showers developing. Min: -4 Max: 1
    Cabramurra Showers developing. Min: 1 Max: 4

    chance of snow 1500 m 1900 m
    Day (6 am/6 pm) 40 % 80 %
    Night (6 pm/6 am) 60 % 90 %

    Forecast for Tuesday
    Scattered snow showers. Moderate south to southwest winds.
    Thredbo Top Station Snow showers. Min: -6 Max: -1

    Forecast for Wednesday
    Scattered snow showers. Fresh southerly winds.
    Thredbo Top Station Snow showers. Min: -7 Max: -2

    Forecast for Thursday
    Scattered snow showers. Moderate south to southeast winds.
    Thredbo Top Station Snow showers. Min: -5 Max: -1

    Snow Depth Observations Depth (cm)
    Spencers Creek (1830 m - out from Charlotte Pass) 20.3
    Deep Creek (1620 m - SW of Cabramurra)) 6.4
    Three Mile Dam (1460 m SW of Kiandra) 0
    Source: Snowy Hydro, updated weekly, Last updated: 4/06/07

    Quantitative rainfall Cabramurra Perisher Valley
    Tonight (3 pm/9 am) 1 2
    Monday (24 h from 9 am) 1 2
    Tuesday (24 h from 9 am) 1 2

    Range 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
    Precipitation (mm) <1 1-5 6-10 11-20 21-40 41-80 >80
    The next routine forecast will be issued at 5:30 am EST Monday"


    It would be good to get 20cm out of all this.
     
  31. Silence

    Silence One of Us

    Joined:
    May 20, 2004
    Messages:
    3,564
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Sydney
    looking good!
     
  32. Planks & Sticks

    Planks & Sticks One of Us

    Joined:
    Dec 23, 2005
    Messages:
    4,672
    Likes Received:
    17
    Location:
    Fitzroy
    How does Buller look to fare out of this?
     
  33. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2000
    Messages:
    3,022
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Vic, Australia
    Its an interesting one it looks like it will be cold but the charts dont show a great deal of moisture if we get more moisture then predicted from ordio lift then we could get another decent 20cm snowfall through to Friday! But looks like 10-15cm which baw baw and to a less extent buller should do better due to the SW air stream. Should be good temps for snowmaking most of the week too! Fingers crossed for more moisture!
     
  34. Wodonga Josh

    Wodonga Josh Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2003
    Messages:
    17,001
    Likes Received:
    1,322
    Location:
    North East Victoria
    What the hell is ordio lift?
    Dont you mean orographic lift?
     
  35. Monaroq

    Monaroq First Runs

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2001
    Messages:
    386
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Vic
    Dont you speak CJ2000?

    This system looks cold, could get snow down to 1000m at times but as previously mentioned there is very little moisture so my bet would be 5-10cm over the 3 days. Better than nothing though...only early june [​IMG]
     
    #35 Monaroq, Jun 10, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  36. FatBob

    FatBob Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 28, 2001
    Messages:
    437
    Likes Received:
    26
    Location:
    Canberra
    GFS looks fantastic for later in the week!

    BOM maps however show nothing.

    We should get something thursday, GFS is usually fairly good 3 days out.
     
  37. Cliff-jumper_2000

    Cliff-jumper_2000 First Runs

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2000
    Messages:
    3,022
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Vic, Australia
    Yeah all week looks good on the GFS charts with another ECL possible later in the week with cold air around too!
     
  38. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    37,431
    Likes Received:
    1,048
    With those comments you'll begin to sound like Sandy soon [​IMG] Its only early June, it's only July, it's only August.... :nerd:

    From this system I think Buller will get around 5-10cms, Baw Baw 10-15, Hotham/Falls 5cms.

    Rest of June and Early July is looking good though!
     
    #38 skiflat, Jun 12, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  39. SteepNDeep

    SteepNDeep First Runs

    Joined:
    May 23, 2002
    Messages:
    10,608
    Likes Received:
    1
    Given GFS's accuracy with last week's ECL and that it has now held this ECL for three runs, I'm optimistic. We could see +1ft above 1600m for the NSW resorts from late Thursday-Saturday.
     
    #39 SteepNDeep, Jun 12, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  40. Cuppa

    Cuppa A Local

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2000
    Messages:
    8,126
    Likes Received:
    710
    I get excited when you talk in feet. :p
     
    #40 Cuppa, Jun 12, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  41. Ted.

    Ted. Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2005
    Messages:
    36
    Likes Received:
    4
    Location:
    Sydney
    GFS appear to have upgraded this afternoon, lots of bright colours on the snowcast on the +48 to +72hrs as well
     
  42. board freek

    board freek One of Us

    Joined:
    May 28, 2005
    Messages:
    1,172
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Eastern Suburbs Melbourne
    were do you find the snocast
     
  43. Spiderman

    Spiderman First Runs

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2002
    Messages:
    582
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Melbourne
    http://ski.com.au/weather/snow_chart_72.html
    I think this is what he is talking about.

    BBaw has done very well and I spoke to both Buller and BBaw and it is still snowing quite heavily. On ABC radio on Monday Ward Rooney from the BOM said he wouldn't be suprised if BBaw had close to 50cms by Friday. I didn't believe him.
     
    #43 Spiderman, Jun 13, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013
  44. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 18, 2004
    Messages:
    180
    Likes Received:
    83
    Temperature is really cold for midday at TWS -5.3 c !
     
  45. adminvb

    adminvb First Runs

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2013
    Messages:
    0
    Likes Received:
    5
    I dont understand how Baw Baw can only be reporting 18cm. Looks a lot more then that!! Also has anyone noticed that the level of detail seems to have slipped from the resort. Well at least the days of over reporting have gone (thanks in part to snowcams!!!).
     
  46. viswin

    viswin Hard Yards

    Joined:
    May 18, 2004
    Messages:
    180
    Likes Received:
    83
    Showers seems to intesify and penetrate deeper on sales radar...hopefully, It is not running out of steam when reaching NSW resorts.
     
  47. BrentC

    BrentC Hard Yards

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2005
    Messages:
    428
    Likes Received:
    1
    Location:
    Victoria
    I Doubt that it is getting to the NSW resorts, for the past 24 hours it looks like its bee breaking up soon after landfall. Radar shows no moisture on Yarrawonga Radar. Its barely getting to Buller, who only reported 3cm despite only being 50km or so from Baw Baw - who received 18cm.

    I think that as it turns more S/SE Tassie will act as a bit of a rain shadow (really shows up on the Vis sat pic) - this afternoon looks better for showers coming across East Gippy - perhaps Hotham/Falls might see something?
     
    #47 BrentC, Jun 13, 2007
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 17, 2013