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Predictions 12-16th August - The Meagre & Marginal

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, Aug 7, 2020.

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  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Ensembles have been pointing to this guy for about 3-4 days now. It appears to be another case of a short wave forging through a low wave, resulting in a cut off system in the Bight, so is somewhat reliant on the Westerly trajectory.

    Plenty of chance for ridging and sliding IMO.

    As a result of the strong signal in the bight, there does look to be some Tropical involvement drawn in through the GoC (. Looks to start warm finish cold.
    GFS & The Candian are interested.

    Follow-up of the LWT on the 17th looking a real chance too, so may extend to incorporate it.

    EC 00z 13th Aug
    [​IMG]

    EC 00z 16th Aug
    [​IMG]

     
    #1 POW_hungry, Aug 7, 2020
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  2. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    I’m not currently seeing a whole lot to get excited about during this period imo
     
    #2 doogasnow, Aug 8, 2020
  3. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gabo Island special.
    Let this system pass thru @doogasnow and review Monday :thumbs:
     
    #3 WarrandyteWX, Aug 8, 2020
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well, maybe worth over-looking this little diddy that EC throws up.
    Temps are not favourable in the slightest...:(
     
    #4 POW_hungry, Aug 9, 2020
  5. OlCol

    OlCol Addicted

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    Do we have to have another low off the east coast? This will be the forth one in a little over a month. Ground is getting a little wet on the south coast.
     
    #5 OlCol, Aug 9, 2020
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  6. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Can we dismiss this as a crazy run because the current system hasn't cleared out? I am kicking off a week in Thredbo from the 17th. I wanted snow but I'll take merely no rain!
     
    #6 Trail Blazer, Aug 9, 2020
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    17thonwards is actually looking ok if I am to be honest. This date range however....
     
    #7 POW_hungry, Aug 9, 2020
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  8. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    [​IMG]
     
    #8 rocketboy, Aug 9, 2020
  9. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    #9 WarrandyteWX, Aug 10, 2020
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  10. Megs

    Megs Hard Yards

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    Bugger.... I just needed a few good hours on Wednesday... I'm not even asking for sunshine just none of the R word.
     
    #10 Megs, Aug 10, 2020
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The stalled nature of the cut-off low in the Bight presents all sorts of issues for this date range.
    That increased NW'ly feed.
    Warm air advection.
    The slide South.
    The imposing trailing ridge.
    The list goes on...
     
    #11 POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2020
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC:
    [​IMG]
     
    #12 POW_hungry, Aug 10, 2020
  13. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    Let's not muck around. Another marginal system. Maybe some snow on the back end, I'm seeing from late Sat - Sun. But not much moisture left when it does get cold. IMO.

    I'm bringing the wet weather gear.
     
    #13 Astro66, Aug 10, 2020
  14. Adamski

    Adamski Addicted

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    Once bitten twice shy, my friend. I won't believe until I see it, and I'll be there to witness either way.
     
    #14 Adamski, Aug 10, 2020
  15. Bogan Daddy

    Bogan Daddy Hard Yards

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    Friday set up looks like November with the tropical trough lines.........Starting to think 'Spr@#g'
     
    #15 Bogan Daddy, Aug 10, 2020
  16. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    #16 Mister Tee on XC Skis, Aug 11, 2020
  17. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo

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    Looks like moisture from Weds to Sun. But the cold air, (540 line) arrives Late Saturday.

     
    #17 Astro66, Aug 11, 2020
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  18. WarrandyteWX

    WarrandyteWX One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    #18 WarrandyteWX, Aug 11, 2020
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  19. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    good bit of rain for inland NSW again. Getting wet out here.
     
    #19 Snow Blowey, Aug 11, 2020
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  20. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    00z-12z runs


    If mslp gets even close to verifying as-per cmc ens plots. Will be a much better system than
    current cm forecasts.
    To be honest if it snows heavy or pours rain and the wind howls i don't really care it all comes under the heading of weather. In layman's terms i don't give a shit.
     
    #20 stormkite2000, Aug 11, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2020
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  21. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC showing promise for Sunday arvo
     
    #21 Donzah, Aug 11, 2020
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  22. connells

    connells One of Us

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    BoM forecast for Thredders is snow every day for the rest of the working week.
    Above 1900 meters.

    Stick to Karels T and you'll stay nice and dry.
     
    #22 connells, Aug 11, 2020
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  23. teleroo

    teleroo Waiting for winter... Ski Pass: Gold

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    Geez I reckon we'll be struggling for cold out of this system. Can't see much staying dry happening.
     
    #23 teleroo, Aug 11, 2020
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  24. snowgum

    snowgum A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    That not much of a boast - dry above 1900? :rolleyes:

    (A “rain is gauge half-full” view?) ;)
     
    #24 snowgum, Aug 11, 2020
  25. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is looking better and better..
    Especially Saturday Sunday..
     
    #25 Donzah, Aug 12, 2020
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Unsupportive 850mb temps IMO.
    500mb is looking marginally better.
    More rain than snow, at best 5cm above 1600m Saturday night/Sunday AM, I reckon
     
    #26 POW_hungry, Aug 12, 2020
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  27. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Values on the ec run @ or below zero. A lower 850 hPa thickness is better as the freezing level will be closer to the ground and more likely to impact with the terrain.




     
    #27 stormkite2000, Aug 13, 2020
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, moisture has pretty much had it's way with us by that stage (Sunday night/Monday AM).
     
    #28 POW_hungry, Aug 13, 2020
  29. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Canuck flake forecast.
     
    #29 stormkite2000, Aug 13, 2020
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  30. snowgum

    snowgum A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I note a lack of ‘blue’ both sides of the Murray.

    Yet the Forecast on Weatherzone looks sort of the best for weeks (at least South o’ border):

    https://www.weatherzone.com.au/snow/
     
    #30 snowgum, Aug 13, 2020
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC bringing the Low in closer to the Eden coastline on Saturday Night, and deepens it.
    Might see a few more cms out of it, yet IMO.
     
    #31 POW_hungry, Aug 14, 2020
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  32. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Boms NSW forecast next 2 days.

     
    #32 stormkite2000, Aug 14, 2020
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  33. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Less Rain today as well.. Main band looks north of the Alps (as Per EC)
     
    #33 Donzah, Aug 14, 2020
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  34. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Whats the go with evaporative cooling? any chance that could drop the level?
     
    #34 Infinity Dawn, Aug 14, 2020
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    No, only useful in deep, moisture laden systems i.e. heavy, sustained precip.
     
    #35 POW_hungry, Aug 14, 2020
  36. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    fair dinkum
     
    #36 Infinity Dawn, Aug 14, 2020
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