EC Ensembles have been pointing to this guy for about 3-4 days now. It appears to be another case of a short wave forging through a low wave, resulting in a cut off system in the Bight, so is somewhat reliant on the Westerly trajectory. Plenty of chance for ridging and sliding IMO. As a result of the strong signal in the bight, there does look to be some Tropical involvement drawn in through the GoC (. Looks to start warm finish cold. GFS & The Candian are interested. Follow-up of the LWT on the 17th looking a real chance too, so may extend to incorporate it. EC 00z 13th Aug EC 00z 16th Aug
Well, maybe worth over-looking this little diddy that EC throws up. Temps are not favourable in the slightest...
Do we have to have another low off the east coast? This will be the forth one in a little over a month. Ground is getting a little wet on the south coast.
Can we dismiss this as a crazy run because the current system hasn't cleared out? I am kicking off a week in Thredbo from the 17th. I wanted snow but I'll take merely no rain!
Bugger.... I just needed a few good hours on Wednesday... I'm not even asking for sunshine just none of the R word.
The stalled nature of the cut-off low in the Bight presents all sorts of issues for this date range. That increased NW'ly feed. Warm air advection. The slide South. The imposing trailing ridge. The list goes on...
Let's not muck around. Another marginal system. Maybe some snow on the back end, I'm seeing from late Sat - Sun. But not much moisture left when it does get cold. IMO. I'm bringing the wet weather gear.
Once bitten twice shy, my friend. I won't believe until I see it, and I'll be there to witness either way.
NEXT 7 DAYS Mt Buller: 21cm Mt Hotham: 26cm Falls Creek: cm Mt Baw Baw: 4cm Perisher: 24cm Thredbo: cm Charlotte Pass: cm Selwyn: 5cm Lake Mountain: 5cm Mt Stirling: cm Ben Lomond: 1cm Mt Mawson: 5cm According to Ms. Bunn's Modelling it looks like some snow will fall on the closed and locked down ski areas of Victoria / plague i stan namely Hotham and Falls.It is still not enough to build a base and allow possible BC drift skiing on Cup Day ( early November) .
00z-12z runs If mslp gets even close to verifying as-per cmc ens plots. Will be a much better system than current cm forecasts. To be honest if it snows heavy or pours rain and the wind howls i don't really care it all comes under the heading of weather. In layman's terms i don't give a shit.
BoM forecast for Thredders is snow every day for the rest of the working week. Above 1900 meters. Stick to Karels T and you'll stay nice and dry.
Unsupportive 850mb temps IMO. 500mb is looking marginally better. More rain than snow, at best 5cm above 1600m Saturday night/Sunday AM, I reckon
Values on the ec run @ or below zero. A lower 850 hPa thickness is better as the freezing level will be closer to the ground and more likely to impact with the terrain.
I note a lack of ‘blue’ both sides of the Murray. Yet the Forecast on Weatherzone looks sort of the best for weeks (at least South o’ border): https://www.weatherzone.com.au/snow/
EC bringing the Low in closer to the Eden coastline on Saturday Night, and deepens it. Might see a few more cms out of it, yet IMO.