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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by Bugski, Apr 26, 2006.
Looks like a chance for an OFF THE RICHTER system. Where's the cross fingers emoticon?
Off the forecast models more like it!
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Are we talking early season starter/boardable earn your turns?
So can you narrow your 6 day forecast window (12th-17th inclusive) a bit Mahtoh? At the moment we are seeing something coming through about every week. You could hence say there is a pretty good chance of something 'poping up' in that timeframe...
how good are we talking Mahtoh?
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We've already had those, we want something that'll stay there till November now.
Alex.C: I know, I boarded on Buller at the start of April, but not enough snow really! I meant I'm wondering if this'll (like you said) be the season starter
Just realised how far out this is though.. over 2 weeks! Especially May 17th, we're talking nearly a month away.
I reckon it will begin on 12th and end on 17th. IE long duration of snow. Should I just say 'system beginning 12th'?
^^ That looks like a turkey.
Let's hope not, sounds like an awesome system, what an unbelievable start to the winter season it is.
Just a question Mahtoh - where abouts do you source your information on which to base your long-range predictions from?
I have to agree, it does have potential. Two nice strong lows building together with plenty of space between the highs on either side....fingers crossed.
For those that want to know the talked about systems can be seen on these charts under Africa:
I reckon the 14-15th would be the date for snow if this comes off. The high in front will hopefully slow down the first very cold low so it joins with the one behind.
those systems look quite promising
I am getting marrierd in sorrento on the 13 th whats the chance there will be strong nw winds that day as this system is exactly what i dont want so keep forecasts coming.
I also like the system due on the last week of May.
Noob question: Would that be the one under Sth America?
Sorry, i think i was vieing a different chart, the system due on the 16th is located south, between SA and Aus. Could do with more moisture though.
The system you are refering to is the one Frog has declared his love for (end of May).
Well this is dead. Should I delete the thread or let it die a natural death?
You've got to leave your good and bad efforts on show. GASP shows a front brushing the mainland on wednesday but thats outside the forecast window - which was pretty damn wide anyway.
Come on mahtoh, dont give up - others havent. If it can be un-made, it can be re-made.
From the falls website: ".....Moore said yesterday:"Its on the cards, the May 15 -18 snowfall will happen....."
I spose the question is what he means by THE. Sounds impressive. As opposed to A snowfall.
Good calls so far this year Mahtoh.
How come its dead? Whats changed?
Edit: Frog also predicted some snowfalls on the 14th->15th!
The system has backed off. Frog gives the impression they are light falls only.
......and moore only needs one snowflake to be correct.
Falls Creek's latest madia release quote John Moore to say:
I can't wait for it to not happen, just to see him loose credibility.
That system referred to by Frog for the last week of May (25th-26th?) still looks okay at this stage. C'mon LWT.
Usual provisos apply; It's a looooong way off.
dont looks like anything during this period but a nice juicy blocking high!!! will have to wait a week or 2 before will see any snow potential.
oh well it'll come
Does John Moore want to see YOU lose credibility? I wonder why such motivation exists in forum members....hmmm? Well, he has been pretty accurate so far and locals around the mountains (without reference to him), appear to substanciate his claims and they reckon on a cold, maybe above average winter. I am glad if he is correct, yet this thread points to no snow on these dates now - but, weatherzone synoptic has quite a chance remaining....wait and see. Leave Johnny alone anyway, what has he done to you? He is probably a nice bloke and probably has a better head on his shoulders than half the people posting their big BS here.
I've never seen anyone prove their own point so emphatically.
Is someone able to explain why that high pressure system has just sat over the Bight for the last week and not moved, and will continue to sit there for the next few days? When watching the weather patterns over winter months usually this type of pattern would bring colder air from the south for prolonged periods of time and potential for some good snow falls. Can we expect this type of pattern to continue through winter this year?
Because it is sitting in a Long Wave Trough stuck between two ridges.
u think browny would understand that? (apoligies browny if you do).
Fair point. Er...hang on.
ok am I sadly confused, I would have thought that it would be a long wave ridge stuck between two long wave troughs, troughs being low pressure and ridges being high pressure??
Ok this might be all wrong but this is how I understand it.
Here is the current analysis with the big bugger of a high over us....
Here is the current analysis of the current southern hemisphere 500 hecta pascal long wave chart. IE what's happening high in the atmosphere. Australia is in the top slightly to the right.
See how the High is in the position of the 'U' shape of the line? That means the upper atmosphere is favourable for a high to form lower in the atmosphere at that place. It will not always correlate so well, but well it does it'll produce a big ugly high like that one which ruined my wonderful system.
So, what has the upper atmosphere got to do with where the High is and why it is relatgively stationary?
Well, I reckon one of the ways to imagine it is a conveyor belt. The high/low pressure systems we see on the news every night are (very roughly) all heading in the same direction. The peaks of troughs you see in the upper atmosphere charts above are also travelling, but much more slowly. TSo, imagine the two are actually two conveyor belts travelling next to eachother but at different speeds. What happen is that each of the conveyors have toughs and bumps so that the upper atmosphere is pushing or pulling on each system as they go past eahother.
What the 'peaks' of the waves do (the ones which are tending to 'point' northdo is streghten lows. The 'U' shapes tend to strengthen highs and weaken lows. So for example, you will see another High marked in another U ar 3 o'clock on the LWT chart.
Happy to be corrected but that is as I understand it (if what I wrote can be understood at all).
I'm sure soon enough Blackheath and Falls expat or MH (where is he?) will be along to explain it much better than I can.
Here is another map. Notice where the Highs - marked 'H' and the lows - marked 'L' are in relation to the LWT chart I posted above.
Blackheath is going to have a woody when he sees the correlation at the moment.
I was wondering the exact same thing.
Thanks for that Mahtoh! One question however, do the "peaks" on the 500 hecta pascal long wave chart actualy strengthen lows - or just allow them to travel to a more northen latitude?
Blackheath explains it better than I do.
Thanks for that Mahtoh, a nice little explanation of whats going on in the upper atmosphere and how it affects surface systems.
Ok I'm now going into "I'm a pedantic b*st*rd" mode!
My original query had more to do with terminology than the way the actual troughs/ridges themselves move/behave. Simply I always thought that long wave ridges are typically associated with surface high pressure systems. This is backed up in part of Blackheaths explanation you quoted above:
In your post
you talk of the high being in a trough between ridges. Suddenly I was wondering if you simply mixed the words "trough" and "ridge" up in the post or that after all this time I had it wrong and its long wave troughs, not ridges, that are associated with surface high pressure!
It is just me or has some of the press releases disappeared. I cannot find any with reference to John Moore and this predicted snowfall...
Whoops yep it's long wave troughs that encourage high pressure systems.
Mahtoh do you know if the MJO travels around the tropics at about the same speed or is it less predictable?
Sorry about the off topic question boot it if you want....
Wow! Mahtoh, thats (well, at least for weather newbies like me)a huge amount of info - and it actually does make a lot of sense!
Congrats for getting it through my thick skull, but to the mods, do you think this type of info could be put in a sticky 'weather 101' type of thread? I for one would find this REALLY helpful, not understanding some of the stuff that is said here, (especially in the weather cycles thread!)
Anyway, whatever happens, thanks for the effort!
No idea. I just care about what makes it snow
No doubt an actually meteorologist like Falls expat or Davidian (hehe) would know.
Thanks for taking the time to put that explanation together Mahtoh - that definitely answers my question and more.