Predictions 13-16th July Tasman Low (NSW Coast)

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
22,963
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1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Lining up on LWT modeling is the potential for a cradled low scenario to form this weekend as it enters the Tasman.
Given it forms from an ULL it has the potential for severe local damage as a result of the slow-moving cradled-low set-up. Global models paiting a grim mid-range picture at the moment.
Rain, coastal erosion and damaging winds along the coast could be just the start of it.

EC Ensembles:
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GFS:
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AshestoAshes

One of Us
Jul 3, 2019
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Voyager Point NSW
Lining up on LWT modeling is the potential for a cradled low scenario to form this weekend as it enters the Tasman.
Given it forms from an ULL it has the potential for severe local damage as a result of the slow-moving cradled-low set-up. Global models paiting a grim mid-range picture at the moment.
Rain, coastal erosion and damaging winds along the coast could be just the start of it.
I think we're going to need a cool nick-name for these upper level lows that take the Adelaide to Mid-North Coast/Central Coast.
 

Flowin

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 5, 2019
1,909
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Pinjarra Hills, QLD
Last EPS run was not very interested. With these types of features it's the model i go to with any confidence with sniffing out. But that's just my way of of doing things.





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As always refer to the bom official before making any decisions.

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Re"bbq thread.
nfip under the tos i can post can these they fall under proper rules and legal caveats.
@stormkite2000 I would be surprised if that product would ever detect an ECL with the pressure thresholds that product uses.
I think most ECLs around 990s to 1000, maybe occassionally some in the 980s.
** edit. Sorry I misread the legend and did not see it has categories higher than 980 but they are not showing up on that product. The product must be applying some other criteria or possibly not identifying in the higher latitudes.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
22,963
36,609
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Screenshot from 2020-07-09 11-06-20.png
Deterministics

These run's look great as a visual. But It's the pressure mb that interests me. A deeper low with a forecast to come onshore would have been a good opportunity to experience it first hand.
Broad wind field and closer to the coast on EC, drawing in a lot of moisture West of New Cal.
All down to suspension of the Low and it's positioning, but it's looking potentially nasty.

Gotta agree the progged pressure drop is a little more benign than one would imagine for a system like this IMO.
 

Seafm

Too far from the snow
Ski Pass
Jun 5, 2014
6,214
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Cairns, Queensland
Great. Next week I will be driving my son's car from Sydney to Çairns. Any idea what I should expect driving the New England/ Newell Highway through Goondiwindi? I should be hitting the road Tuesday or Wednesday.
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
22,066
26,850
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Yuin Country
Great. Next week I will be driving my son's car from Sydney to Çairns. Any idea what I should expect driving the New England/ Newell Highway through Goondiwindi? I should be hitting the road Tuesday or Wednesday.
should be OK out west.
Ecl going to hammer the Coast. somewhere between ...
ummm the Vic and Qld borders
my friend AXS still says I'm going to cop it... 35.31S :eek:
upload_2020-7-9_17-44-25.png

upload_2020-7-9_17-45-14.png
 

Seafm

Too far from the snow
Ski Pass
Jun 5, 2014
6,214
8,004
563
60
Cairns, Queensland
should be OK out west.
Ecl going to hammer the Coast. somewhere between ...
ummm the Vic and Qld borders
my friend AXS still says I'm going to cop it... 35.31S :eek:
upload_2020-7-9_17-44-25.png

upload_2020-7-9_17-45-14.png
So mainly coastal then? A bit like North Queensland events then, rain shadow from the coastal ranges once you go inland.
BTW I heard sand bags are on special at Bunnings, you might need them;)
 
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AshestoAshes

One of Us
Jul 3, 2019
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Voyager Point NSW
I'll be in Jindy.
TBH the bullseye looks like Norah head.
@Wavey will attest. We in the Illawarra don't get the full impact of southerly based systems. Easterly rain trains are our worry.
Yh a black Nor'easter is the big worry here as well, SE moving systems typically don't give us too much problem they rather go sit on the escarpment and do some dam-filling.
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
22,066
26,850
1,063
Yuin Country
getting some further agreement on likely impact.
doesnt look like anywhere is spared .
South appearing to cop the worst of it at this stage as ^.
see how it goes after the weekend plays out.

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upload_2020-7-10_6-16-14.png
 
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