Predictions 13-16th July Tasman Low (NSW Coast)

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by POW_hungry, Jul 8, 2020.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lining up on LWT modeling is the potential for a cradled low scenario to form this weekend as it enters the Tasman.
    Given it forms from an ULL it has the potential for severe local damage as a result of the slow-moving cradled-low set-up. Global models paiting a grim mid-range picture at the moment.
    Rain, coastal erosion and damaging winds along the coast could be just the start of it.

    EC Ensembles:


    GFS:
     
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  2. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Lacking a lot of agreement as you'd expect at this range but swell field looks huge.
     
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  3. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    Feb 2020, here we go again. Had 400ml in Hornsby Shire, Sydney over 48 hrs.
     
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sweeping coral sea in-feed should get the job done:
     
  5. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Gut feel.
    Centred on central coast.
    Parallel runners.
     
  6. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

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    I think we're going to need a cool nick-name for these upper level lows that take the Adelaide to Mid-North Coast/Central Coast.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    The Tasman Devil.
     
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  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  9. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC ensemble spaghetti firming up on NSW coast low feature developing.
    Still some deviation (as one would expect) on the prime impact area.

     
  10. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    help !!!!
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Thinking myself quite possibly this feature is maybe over-hyped.
     
  12. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS likes a overhyped Tasman low.
     
  13. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I remember early extended GFS models pre @2005 used to plonk a random ECL off the Northern NSW coast on the 384 h panel
    Was obviously the 384 solution for every run:nerd:
     
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  14. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    @stormkite2000 I would be surprised if that product would ever detect an ECL with the pressure thresholds that product uses.
    I think most ECLs around 990s to 1000, maybe occassionally some in the 980s.
    ** edit. Sorry I misread the legend and did not see it has categories higher than 980 but they are not showing up on that product. The product must be applying some other criteria or possibly not identifying in the higher latitudes.
     
  15. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  16. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Was being touted about as a possible bombing low. On many threads.




    If it shows more in the next few runs great. But for me now its junk.
     
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  17. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  18. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Deterministics

    These run's look great as a visual. But It's the pressure mb that interests me. A deeper low with a forecast to come onshore would have been a good opportunity to experience it first hand.
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Broad wind field and closer to the coast on EC, drawing in a lot of moisture West of New Cal.
    All down to suspension of the Low and it's positioning, but it's looking potentially nasty.

    Gotta agree the progged pressure drop is a little more benign than one would imagine for a system like this IMO.
     
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  20. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    [​IMG]

    Its a shame its pumping up the ridge to the west.
     
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  21. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

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    Back at the BoM, they spun the chocolate wheel and came up with this.

    [​IMG]

    Bye bye @Donzah
     
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  22. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    think I read the D man is ( was ? ) planning be in Jindy next week.
    playing russian roulette in Woolies , the LJ , Banjo, .... you know ;-)
     
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  23. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  24. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Goody. We haven't had enough ECLs this year!
     
  25. MisterMxyzptlk

    MisterMxyzptlk Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's a bit different to GFS
    GFS has it rapidly heading east but that has it spinning north east and up the coast
    Interesting
     
  26. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Yeah into subtropical territory.
     
  27. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  28. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bounced N by "the blob"
     
  29. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great. Next week I will be driving my son's car from Sydney to Çairns. Any idea what I should expect driving the New England/ Newell Highway through Goondiwindi? I should be hitting the road Tuesday or Wednesday.
     
  30. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    should be OK out west.
    Ecl going to hammer the Coast. somewhere between ...
    ummm the Vic and Qld borders
    my friend AXS still says I'm going to cop it... 35.31S :eek:

     
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  31. rowdyflat

    rowdyflat One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Good for inland farmers
     
  32. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    1?
    Edit; disregard, thought you said haven't 'we' had enough (on quick glance)
     
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  33. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm interested in leftovers for the following weekend :)
     
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  34. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  35. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

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    So mainly coastal then? A bit like North Queensland events then, rain shadow from the coastal ranges once you go inland.
    BTW I heard sand bags are on special at Bunnings, you might need them;)
     
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  36. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

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    Yh a black Nor'easter is the big worry here as well, SE moving systems typically don't give us too much problem they rather go sit on the escarpment and do some dam-filling.
     
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  37. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    This ain't a black NE'er. Far from it.
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest EC Ensembles guidance puts on a decent show for Eastern GDR Newy to Eden.


     
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  39. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    getting some further agreement on likely impact.
    doesnt look like anywhere is spared .
    South appearing to cop the worst of it at this stage as ^.
    see how it goes after the weekend plays out.



     
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  40. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    @Donzah
    new season boots.
    Multi purpose
    Jindy lakeside wandering & hometown .......
    [​IMG]
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Come in fidget spinner:
     
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  42. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    big part of the mix.
     
  43. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Anyone who is" living in a tent " after the fires ain't going to enjoy this, poor bastards.
     
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  44. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, good point!!
     
  45. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I thought Access was going hard for rain at the southern end near Eden. UK met model is going even harder!

     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    OCF Monday:
     
  47. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Relevance to snow as well
     
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  48. J_busworth

    J_busworth One of Us

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    I notice that the Alps fall within the 40mm range there. Snow or too warm?
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just about to post RE: this over there.