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Predictions 13-16th July Tasman Low (NSW Coast)

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by POW_hungry, Jul 8, 2020.

  1. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    OCF not loading in bsch lately .
     
  2. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks to start on Sunday for the South Coast, and amp up over Monday morning, with the peak of falls on Monday evening.

    EC indicates a break in falls early Tuesday morning, with falls coming back up along the coast over the day on Tuesday, and into Wednesday morning when it finally starts to subside.



    EPS ensemble (ECMWF) is staying pretty consistent by its deterministic model, with some very damp ensemble members available as well (number 43 :eek:)


    Falls further inland on the Monaro are expected to be peaking on the Monday afternoon, and quickly subsiding to showers overnight into Tuesday.
     
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  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Use that Weather Watch site.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  5. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    You’d have to think by this stage that the south coast is almost a sure bet for decent falls. The system would have to bomb a lot further south or east (or one of the smaller multiple centres around the flank pivots around and throws a spanner in the works) for that not to happen.
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I’d say 90% confidence is in the models RE: positioning. Good agreement. The embedded lows do look to play a crucial role in it’s southern flanks intensity too.
     
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  7. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    can I read as....
    one of them intensifies it will may "anchor " the others.
    thinking along warmer SST anoms further S so.... greater convection = dominant meso system
     
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  8. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS usually the most bullish.Not doing much with it until its well ots. No bomb. Central pressure needs decrease by 24 hPa or more in 24 hours for a bomb.

     
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  9. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    That previous 18z run with the upper circulation centre weakening and moving ne, while a new center of low pressure is developing looked more probable to me.



    00z GFS.

     
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  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Shunted by that ridge-backscratcher low pushing through Albany.
     
  11. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

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    BOM video out, with the low likely to pass South of Sydney so we'll end up with a Southerly Wrap for most of us on this forum (AKA Hit or Miss) in terms of precipitation. Although i'd say that the Coastal Fringe esp. Nelson Bay or not in for a good ride. Looking at the flipside Gippsland and SE NSW have been doing terrible the last 12 months for rainfall.

     
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  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, but more so embedded lows with a supply of reinforcing instability.
    You can see 3-4 embedded lows along the SW core below, any quasi-stationary stall in the low will deliver multiple blows of intense falls.
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Ken Kato

    Ken Kato One of Us

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    Yeah technically 24hpa/24hrs but it's still often used in a looser more colloquial sense for any extratropical low that shows major rapid intensification. I have a personal preference to using 18z runs since I often find the 00z runs can often seem to be quite erratic especially at longer ranges. Hopefully should get a better picture in the next couple of days although any system like this with multiple small centres moving around its flank makes it oh-so-tricky to forecast the heavier rainfall/strong wind areas.
     
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  14. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  15. connells

    connells Addicted

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    Gotta love that wiki reference of historical ECLs.
    It was that 0.01mm that made all the difference. :rolleyes:
    No doubt the actual total, 327.8, was converted to ye olde units, rounded to two decimal places and then converted back to metric. Sheesh!
     
  16. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Sydney's forecast rain totals have dropped quite a bit this afternoon. Must be expecting now that the low forms further south and we'll be under a more SW'erly regime. Still wriggle room for another upgrade.
     
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  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC 00Z




    Has a gyre look to it. Mid-level lat jet interaction coming into play maybe
     
  18. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm quite happy with the medium totals!
     
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  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 00z totals moving north a little compared to previous run, to centre around Jervis Bay.


    Hence less heavy falls for the Snowies and the Monaro. and the Far South Coast.

    More towards Illawarra and Sydney coastal regions.
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    A few GFS ensemble members going for >90mm of rain in 24 hours for Wollongong:
    #squishyboots
     
  21. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    Yes, and Warragamba went from 30 to 80% where it is currently at. If same rain falls again it will spill 600GL. We shall see...W
     
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  22. Billy_Buttons

    Billy_Buttons Que Sera, Sera Ski Pass: Gold

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    Last time apparently it spilled was March 2012.
     
  23. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    Sydney’s forecast rain from this event has been wound back from 60 - 150 mm yesterday to about 30 - 65 today, heaviest mid next week but basically dribbling on over a period of a week or so. It looks like the event will focus more Southwards, becoming mainly coastal.

    There have been some useful falls West of the Divide today, a few over 25 mm, including Dunedoo, Gilgandra and around Coonabarabran. There was light rain falling here when I was outside a little while ago.
     
  24. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    I hope not.
    Cause I'll flood.
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ensembles mean going for 80mm in ~60 hours.
    Hope that helps ;)
     
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  26. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's 20mm in ten mins that gets us.
    It's rare to get high mm p/min rates in 50-70kay winds.
    It's more sweeping in those type systems.
     
  27. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Going to be critical where the dominate low forms Conditions could be better or much worse than current modeling. Its tricky with those vortexs jumping about.
     
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  28. AshestoAshes

    AshestoAshes One of Us

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    I've been meaning to make my prediction for a 100% Warragamba, with possibly a forming La Nina. My guess is a spill arriving in October.
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Latest GFS has cyc-gen insync, virtually at the same time, as the breaking wave pattern in SW WA.
    2 sizable, concurrent anoms for our region.
     
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  30. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC 12z upgrade in strength.






    ..............................................................................................................................................
    edited add.









     
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  31. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    What’s the chances of snow closing the road between Jindy and Canberra in spots?
     
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Only real possibly is Cooma to Jindy IMO, but even then I think anything below 1100m will be fine.
    Should have a better idea tomorrow AM RE: Monday.
     
    #82 POW_hungry, Jul 11, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2020
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  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    18ZEC Thinks stormforce gusts will be whipping around in tail @ surface level.
     
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  34. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Rivers will flow more this time because the ground is already wet.
     
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  35. Rainbow Spirit

    Rainbow Spirit Addicted

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    So no chat here since 10:39am yesterday? Is the ECL no longer of interest?
     
  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  37. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    I think it's just too far south now to interest most of us locally.
     
  38. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    calm before the storm just now.
    5 kt SW.
    We only have strong wind warning for tomoz.
    see how the BOM view it at 4am.
     
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC going for 18mb drop on the Tasman Low 0400hrs Tuesday to 0400hrs Wednesday. Decent upgrade for swell and coastal impacts.
     
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  40. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    You heading down.... ? Sorry OT
     
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  41. connells

    connells Addicted

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    Beautiful clear and calm morning in Beacon Hill. Just the type of conditions I was hoping for. We shall see how this bugger consolidates itself as the day goes. Probably send warm Tasman air to the alps and wash away the snow and then send onshore wind and rain up and down the coast.

    I imagine there will be lots of clueless dipsh!ts lambasting the BoM as idiots who don't know what they're doing this morning.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This arvo's temps are a bit of a concern below 1600m but boy, with 30-40cm overnight that'd be a lot to wash away. But generally, I agree with your comment.
     
  43. Undies

    Undies Pizza! Ski Pass: Gold

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    I wish. Got mates down there though, so was curious.

    Sitting here in Sydney bathed in sunshine, wondering if the garden will get the drenching it wants.
     
  44. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I observe - that I am in Jindy and can't ski!!
     
  45. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    No reason why it should not go off when out in the tasman. Divergence (lift for storms) looks ideal on plots atm.










    Newcastle is likely to start feeling it tomorrow.
     
    #95 stormkite2000, Jul 13, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2020
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bega & Eden copping there. Radar concurs.
     
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  47. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    EC go's nasty with possible max potential wave heights when it starts rolling. Up-to 12 metre
    rogue waves. Not ideal for fishing in a tinny or a ocean liner.








     
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  48. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    The basin may also see some intermittent reasonable strength gusts @ times.


    ultra high res p/ec




     
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  49. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    Some big totals on the South Coast, e.g. since 9:00 yesterday:

    Merimbula 84 mm
    Bega - 81

    It does look as though the low quickly moves into the Central Tasman and sits there for several days, bringing coastal showers and big waves.
     
  50. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    only 11mm in the Nylex guage just north of Ulladulla.
    22mm official AWS
    tonight looking like is our turn as the L develops over the water and moisture gets driven up the Coast