Predictions 13-16th July Tasman Low (NSW Coast)

nfip

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OCF Monday:
Screen Shot 2020-07-10 at 8.51.54 am.png
OCF not loading in bsch lately .
 

Jellybeans

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E8C1E815-311B-48D5-B89B-EAB94AD7CEF5.png


Looks to start on Sunday for the South Coast, and amp up over Monday morning, with the peak of falls on Monday evening.

EC indicates a break in falls early Tuesday morning, with falls coming back up along the coast over the day on Tuesday, and into Wednesday morning when it finally starts to subside.

06FE577F-25A1-4F00-99C8-20C198D208CD.gif


EPS ensemble (ECMWF) is staying pretty consistent by its deterministic model, with some very damp ensemble members available as well (number 43 :eek:)
F7390990-4C5A-4949-A1DB-317F1F9578A0.png


Falls further inland on the Monaro are expected to be peaking on the Monday afternoon, and quickly subsiding to showers overnight into Tuesday.
5FF3572B-513A-4849-8E9F-2D4A7E6AD342.png
 
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Ken Kato

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Latest EC Ensembles guidance puts on a decent show for Eastern GDR Newy to Eden.
Screen Shot 2020-07-09 at 9.21.51 pm.png


Screen Shot 2020-07-09 at 9.24.44 pm.png
You’d have to think by this stage that the south coast is almost a sure bet for decent falls. The system would have to bomb a lot further south or east (or one of the smaller multiple centres around the flank pivots around and throws a spanner in the works) for that not to happen.
 

POW Hungry

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You’d have to think by this stage that the south coast is almost a sure bet for decent falls. The system would have to bomb a lot further south or east (or one of the smaller multiple centres around the flank pivots around and throws a spanner in the works) for that not to happen.
Yeah I’d say 90% confidence is in the models RE: positioning. Good agreement. The embedded lows do look to play a crucial role in it’s southern flanks intensity too.
 
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nfip

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Yeah I’d say 90% confidence is in the models RE: positioning. Good agreement. The embedded lows do look to play a crucial role in it’s southern flanks intensity too.
can I read as....
one of them intensifies it will may "anchor " the others.
thinking along warmer SST anoms further S so.... greater convection = dominant meso system
 
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AshestoAshes

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BOM video out, with the low likely to pass South of Sydney so we'll end up with a Southerly Wrap for most of us on this forum (AKA Hit or Miss) in terms of precipitation. Although i'd say that the Coastal Fringe esp. Nelson Bay or not in for a good ride. Looking at the flipside Gippsland and SE NSW have been doing terrible the last 12 months for rainfall.
Screen Shot 2020-07-10 at 2.54.18 pm.png
 
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POW Hungry

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can I read as....
one of them intensifies it will may "anchor " the others.
thinking along warmer SST anoms further S so.... greater convection = dominant meso system
Yeah, but more so embedded lows with a supply of reinforcing instability.
You can see 3-4 embedded lows along the SW core below, any quasi-stationary stall in the low will deliver multiple blows of intense falls.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_aus_15.png
 

Ken Kato

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GFS usually the most bullish.Not doing much with it until its well ots. No bomb. Central pressure needs decrease by 24 hPa or more in 24 hours for a bomb.

gfs-deterministic-aus-mslp-1594317600-1594652400-1594825200-20.gif
Yeah technically 24hpa/24hrs but it's still often used in a looser more colloquial sense for any extratropical low that shows major rapid intensification. I have a personal preference to using 18z runs since I often find the 00z runs can often seem to be quite erratic especially at longer ranges. Hopefully should get a better picture in the next couple of days although any system like this with multiple small centres moving around its flank makes it oh-so-tricky to forecast the heavier rainfall/strong wind areas.
 

Homer

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Sydney's forecast rain totals have dropped quite a bit this afternoon. Must be expecting now that the low forms further south and we'll be under a more SW'erly regime. Still wriggle room for another upgrade.
 
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Donza

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Sydney's forecast rain totals have dropped quite a bit this afternoon. Must be expecting now that the low forms further south and we'll be under a more SW'erly regime. Still wriggle room for another upgrade.
I'm quite happy with the medium totals!
 
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Jellybeans

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EC 00z totals moving north a little compared to previous run, to centre around Jervis Bay.
F7AA46D6-6413-488C-90E6-BCC2014CFD92.png


Hence less heavy falls for the Snowies and the Monaro. and the Far South Coast.

More towards Illawarra and Sydney coastal regions.
 
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Steve777

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Sydney’s forecast rain from this event has been wound back from 60 - 150 mm yesterday to about 30 - 65 today, heaviest mid next week but basically dribbling on over a period of a week or so. It looks like the event will focus more Southwards, becoming mainly coastal.

There have been some useful falls West of the Divide today, a few over 25 mm, including Dunedoo, Gilgandra and around Coonabarabran. There was light rain falling here when I was outside a little while ago.
 

nfip

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calm before the storm just now.
5 kt SW.
We only have strong wind warning for tomoz.
see how the BOM view it at 4am.
 

connells

One of Us
Beautiful clear and calm morning in Beacon Hill. Just the type of conditions I was hoping for. We shall see how this bugger consolidates itself as the day goes. Probably send warm Tasman air to the alps and wash away the snow and then send onshore wind and rain up and down the coast.

I imagine there will be lots of clueless dipsh!ts lambasting the BoM as idiots who don't know what they're doing this morning.
 

POW Hungry

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Beautiful clear and calm morning in Beacon Hill. Just the type of conditions I was hoping for. We shall see how this bugger consolidates itself as the day goes. Probably send warm Tasman air to the alps and wash away the snow and then send onshore wind and rain up and down the coast.

I imagine there will be lots of clueless dipsh!ts lambasting the BoM as idiots who don't know what they're doing this morning.
This arvo's temps are a bit of a concern below 1600m but boy, with 30-40cm overnight that'd be a lot to wash away. But generally, I agree with your comment.
 

Steve777

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Some big totals on the South Coast, e.g. since 9:00 yesterday:

Merimbula 84 mm
Bega - 81

It does look as though the low quickly moves into the Central Tasman and sits there for several days, bringing coastal showers and big waves.
 

nfip

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Jul 24, 2006
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only 11mm in the Nylex guage just north of Ulladulla.
22mm official AWS
tonight looking like is our turn as the L develops over the water and moisture gets driven up the Coast
 
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