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Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by POW_hungry, Jul 8, 2020.
OCF not loading in bsch lately .
Looks to start on Sunday for the South Coast, and amp up over Monday morning, with the peak of falls on Monday evening.
EC indicates a break in falls early Tuesday morning, with falls coming back up along the coast over the day on Tuesday, and into Wednesday morning when it finally starts to subside.
EPS ensemble (ECMWF) is staying pretty consistent by its deterministic model, with some very damp ensemble members available as well (number 43 )
Falls further inland on the Monaro are expected to be peaking on the Monday afternoon, and quickly subsiding to showers overnight into Tuesday.
Use that Weather Watch site.
Note, we have two concurrent threads running at the moment on this system. One for the impacts on greater NSW & Coastline here, and the snow system impacts here: https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/11-13th-july-upper-cut-off.87971/page-7
You’d have to think by this stage that the south coast is almost a sure bet for decent falls. The system would have to bomb a lot further south or east (or one of the smaller multiple centres around the flank pivots around and throws a spanner in the works) for that not to happen.
Yeah I’d say 90% confidence is in the models RE: positioning. Good agreement. The embedded lows do look to play a crucial role in it’s southern flanks intensity too.
can I read as....
one of them intensifies it will may "anchor " the others.
thinking along warmer SST anoms further S so.... greater convection = dominant meso system
GFS usually the most bullish.Not doing much with it until its well ots. No bomb. Central pressure needs decrease by 24 hPa or more in 24 hours for a bomb.
That previous 18z run with the upper circulation centre weakening and moving ne, while a new center of low pressure is developing looked more probable to me.
Shunted by that ridge-backscratcher low pushing through Albany.
BOM video out, with the low likely to pass South of Sydney so we'll end up with a Southerly Wrap for most of us on this forum (AKA Hit or Miss) in terms of precipitation. Although i'd say that the Coastal Fringe esp. Nelson Bay or not in for a good ride. Looking at the flipside Gippsland and SE NSW have been doing terrible the last 12 months for rainfall.
Yeah, but more so embedded lows with a supply of reinforcing instability.
You can see 3-4 embedded lows along the SW core below, any quasi-stationary stall in the low will deliver multiple blows of intense falls.
Yeah technically 24hpa/24hrs but it's still often used in a looser more colloquial sense for any extratropical low that shows major rapid intensification. I have a personal preference to using 18z runs since I often find the 00z runs can often seem to be quite erratic especially at longer ranges. Hopefully should get a better picture in the next couple of days although any system like this with multiple small centres moving around its flank makes it oh-so-tricky to forecast the heavier rainfall/strong wind areas.
For anyone else just looking in now. Here's some info in laymans terms what we are watching.
Gotta love that wiki reference of historical ECLs.
It was that 0.01mm that made all the difference.
No doubt the actual total, 327.8, was converted to ye olde units, rounded to two decimal places and then converted back to metric. Sheesh!
Sydney's forecast rain totals have dropped quite a bit this afternoon. Must be expecting now that the low forms further south and we'll be under a more SW'erly regime. Still wriggle room for another upgrade.
Has a gyre look to it. Mid-level lat jet interaction coming into play maybe
I'm quite happy with the medium totals!
EC 00z totals moving north a little compared to previous run, to centre around Jervis Bay.
Hence less heavy falls for the Snowies and the Monaro. and the Far South Coast.
More towards Illawarra and Sydney coastal regions.
A few GFS ensemble members going for >90mm of rain in 24 hours for Wollongong:
Yes, and Warragamba went from 30 to 80% where it is currently at. If same rain falls again it will spill 600GL. We shall see...W
Last time apparently it spilled was March 2012.
Sydney’s forecast rain from this event has been wound back from 60 - 150 mm yesterday to about 30 - 65 today, heaviest mid next week but basically dribbling on over a period of a week or so. It looks like the event will focus more Southwards, becoming mainly coastal.
There have been some useful falls West of the Divide today, a few over 25 mm, including Dunedoo, Gilgandra and around Coonabarabran. There was light rain falling here when I was outside a little while ago.
I hope not.
Cause I'll flood.
Ensembles mean going for 80mm in ~60 hours.
Hope that helps
It's 20mm in ten mins that gets us.
It's rare to get high mm p/min rates in 50-70kay winds.
It's more sweeping in those type systems.
Going to be critical where the dominate low forms Conditions could be better or much worse than current modeling. Its tricky with those vortexs jumping about.
I've been meaning to make my prediction for a 100% Warragamba, with possibly a forming La Nina. My guess is a spill arriving in October.
Latest GFS has cyc-gen insync, virtually at the same time, as the breaking wave pattern in SW WA.
2 sizable, concurrent anoms for our region.
EC 12z upgrade in strength.
What’s the chances of snow closing the road between Jindy and Canberra in spots?
Only real possibly is Cooma to Jindy IMO, but even then I think anything below 1100m will be fine.
Should have a better idea tomorrow AM RE: Monday.
18ZEC Thinks stormforce gusts will be whipping around in tail @ surface level.
Rivers will flow more this time because the ground is already wet.
So no chat here since 10:39am yesterday? Is the ECL no longer of interest?
Quite good obs in NSW/ACT thread here: https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/nsw-act-weather.85083/page-74#post-4357384
And impacts on Alps here: https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/10-15th-july-obs-thread.88019/page-4
I think it's just too far south now to interest most of us locally.
calm before the storm just now.
5 kt SW.
We only have strong wind warning for tomoz.
see how the BOM view it at 4am.
EC going for 18mb drop on the Tasman Low 0400hrs Tuesday to 0400hrs Wednesday. Decent upgrade for swell and coastal impacts.
You heading down.... ? Sorry OT
Beautiful clear and calm morning in Beacon Hill. Just the type of conditions I was hoping for. We shall see how this bugger consolidates itself as the day goes. Probably send warm Tasman air to the alps and wash away the snow and then send onshore wind and rain up and down the coast.
I imagine there will be lots of clueless dipsh!ts lambasting the BoM as idiots who don't know what they're doing this morning.
This arvo's temps are a bit of a concern below 1600m but boy, with 30-40cm overnight that'd be a lot to wash away. But generally, I agree with your comment.
I wish. Got mates down there though, so was curious.
Sitting here in Sydney bathed in sunshine, wondering if the garden will get the drenching it wants.
I observe - that I am in Jindy and can't ski!!
No reason why it should not go off when out in the tasman. Divergence (lift for storms) looks ideal on plots atm.
Newcastle is likely to start feeling it tomorrow.
Bega & Eden copping there. Radar concurs.
EC go's nasty with possible max potential wave heights when it starts rolling. Up-to 12 metre
rogue waves. Not ideal for fishing in a tinny or a ocean liner.
The basin may also see some intermittent reasonable strength gusts @ times.
ultra high res p/ec
Some big totals on the South Coast, e.g. since 9:00 yesterday:
Merimbula 84 mm
Bega - 81
It does look as though the low quickly moves into the Central Tasman and sits there for several days, bringing coastal showers and big waves.
only 11mm in the Nylex guage just north of Ulladulla.
22mm official AWS
tonight looking like is our turn as the L develops over the water and moisture gets driven up the Coast