Predictions 13-16th July Tasman Low (NSW Coast)

stormkite2000

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icon-all-aus-mslp-4720800.png

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Pretty much it's a ECC .

https://journals.ametsoc.org/mwr/ar...e-Scale-Influences-on-the-Evolution-of-Winter
 
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stormkite2000

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(Damaging Winds And Damaging Surf) for parts of Mid North Coast, Hunter, Metropolitan and Illawarra

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


Severe Weather Warning
for Damaging Winds And Damaging Surf

for parts of Mid North Coast, Hunter, Metropolitan and Illawarra Forecast Districts.

Issued at 10:30 pm Monday, 13 July 2020.

BLUSTERY WINDS AND HEAVY SEAS ALONG PARTS OF THE NSW COAST FROM TUESDAY

Weather Situation
A low pressure system over the Tasman Sea is deepening. This system is forecast to bring gusty winds to parts of the New South Wales coast on Tuesday, and powerful seas to the coast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
DAMAGING WINDS and DAMAGING SURF for the following areas:
Mid North Coast, Hunter, Metropolitan and Illawarra
DAMAGING WINDS, averaging 60 to 70 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 90 km/h are possible over the coastal fringe of the Illawarra, Sydney Metropolitan, Hunter and Mid North Coast districts on Tuesday.
Winds are expected to gradually ease during Wednesday.
VERY HEAVY SURF which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion is possible from Tuesday afternoon. South and southeast facing parts of the coast are most at risk.
Beach conditions in these areas could be dangerous and people should stay well away from the surf and surf exposed areas.
A Hazardous Surf Warning is also current along the entire New South Wales Coast.
Surf conditions are expected to ease from Thursday.
Locations which may be affected include Sydney, Newcastle, Sydney, Wollongong, Port Macquarie, The Entrance, Foster and Kiama.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony.
* Keep at least 8 metres away from fallen power lines or objects that may be energised, such as fences.
* Trees that have been damaged by fire are likely to be more unstable and more likely to fall.
* Report fallen power lines to either Ausgrid (131 388), Endeavour Energy (131 003), Essential Energy (132 080) or Evoenergy (131 093) as shown on your power bill.
* Stay vigilant and monitor conditions. Note that the landscape may have changed following bushfires.
* For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Tuesday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would
 
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Homer

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As the night goes on and the low forms, I'm trying to work out where it will plant its bum.
Going by sat pics, it looks like it will be somewhere between Port Mc and Coffs.
BOM AWS hPa pressures seem to be lowest around that region as well atm, although none of the figures are particularly low.
Winds are currently strongest on the South Coast?
Am I on the right track or am I missing something here?
 

The Fallen

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As the night goes on and the low forms, I'm trying to work out where it will plant its bum.
Going by sat pics, it looks like it will be somewhere between Port Mc and Coffs.
BOM AWS hPa pressures seem to be lowest around that region as well atm, although none of the figures are particularly low.
Winds are currently strongest on the South Coast?
Am I on the right track or am I missing something here?

You are in the right area but I think it is already a fair way offshore hence the rain downgrades for the Hunter and Sydney etc over the last few days.

You can see a hook starting to form offshore on the below satellite images.

The MSLP is showing a secondary trough/low closer to the coast which is what was triggering the stalled stormline earlier but we will have to wait for the rotation to build before the showers start pushing inland.

IDE00135.202007131330.jpg


IDY00030.202007131200.png
 

Homer

One of Us
Ski Pass
Aug 3, 2005
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4,374
363
Castle Hill - Sydney
You are in the right area but I think it is already a fair way offshore hence the rain downgrades for the Hunter and Sydney etc over the last few days.

You can see a hook starting to form offshore on the below satellite images.

The MSLP is showing a secondary trough/low closer to the coast which is what was triggering the stalled stormline earlier but we will have to wait for the rotation to build before the showers start pushing inland.

IDE00135.202007131330.jpg


IDY00030.202007131200.png

Cheers.
 
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stormkite2000

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Been interesting watching this feature. As was being indicated by GFS this cutoff low that toured se Australia may transition to a shallow warm core system. That's quite a feat considering climo. @best it may become a weak subtropical cyclone. Not something that happens very often.

Screenshot from 2020-07-17 14-37-45.png


You can see on the sat its not frontal.

Screenshot from 2020-07-17 14-25-46.png
 
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