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Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by POW_hungry, Jul 8, 2020.
Pretty much it's a ECC .
So. we may have cyclo-genesis .
now to read up on why BOM ^ said it's not an ECL.
" They develop between 25˚ south and 40˚ south and within 5˚ of the Australian coastline "
Three black cores off the Illawarra just now. The top one has what might be a hook:
visable Satellite to compare ^.
GFS was thinking it will be a shallow warm core. So yeah genesis. Same as when polar lows core warms.
the big pik while I'm there.
lots of bubbling
MCC may well have a w/spout.
I'll need a cup of tea for that link
Reports from down south are brilliant. I didn't expect snow like this to these elevations
Neither did the models. I don't think so anyway.
Had a perfect ally with cold air and moisture.
As the night goes on and the low forms, I'm trying to work out where it will plant its bum.
Going by sat pics, it looks like it will be somewhere between Port Mc and Coffs.
BOM AWS hPa pressures seem to be lowest around that region as well atm, although none of the figures are particularly low.
Winds are currently strongest on the South Coast?
Am I on the right track or am I missing something here?
You are in the right area but I think it is already a fair way offshore hence the rain downgrades for the Hunter and Sydney etc over the last few days.
You can see a hook starting to form offshore on the below satellite images.
The MSLP is showing a secondary trough/low closer to the coast which is what was triggering the stalled stormline earlier but we will have to wait for the rotation to build before the showers start pushing inland.
Satellite this morning showing what the models were portraying. The broad lpa with the 2 lows within.
Nice to see the NZ chart... W
Interesting system from a perspective of moisture feed opportunities and threats.
Appears she will not have a good feed, but also in contrast resilient to fend off dry air threats.
pulling some decent moisture in now
unzud going to cop it deluxe
still looking wet for the East Coast also
Been interesting watching this feature. As was being indicated by GFS this cutoff low that toured se Australia may transition to a shallow warm core system. That's quite a feat considering climo. @best it may become a weak subtropical cyclone. Not something that happens very often.
You can see on the sat its not frontal.