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Predictions 13-16th July Tasman Low (NSW Coast)

Discussion in 'Daily & Chat' started by POW_hungry, Jul 8, 2020.

  1. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  2. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  3. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    So. we may have cyclo-genesis .
    now to read up on why BOM ^ said it's not an ECL.
    " They develop between 25˚ south and 40˚ south and within 5˚ of the Australian coastline " :confused:
     
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  4. Steve777

    Steve777 One of Us

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    Three black cores off the Illawarra just now. The top one has what might be a hook:

     
  5. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    visable Satellite to compare ^. :cool:
     
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  6. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    GFS was thinking it will be a shallow warm core. So yeah genesis. Same as when polar lows core warms.


    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/20071300/47.html
     
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  7. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    the big pik while I'm there.
    lots of bubbling
     
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  8. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    MCC may well have a w/spout.
     
  9. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  10. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

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    Reports from down south are brilliant. I didn't expect snow like this to these elevations
     
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  11. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Neither did the models. I don't think so anyway.
     
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  12. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Had a perfect ally with cold air and moisture.



     
  13. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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  14. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    As the night goes on and the low forms, I'm trying to work out where it will plant its bum.
    Going by sat pics, it looks like it will be somewhere between Port Mc and Coffs.
    BOM AWS hPa pressures seem to be lowest around that region as well atm, although none of the figures are particularly low.
    Winds are currently strongest on the South Coast?
    Am I on the right track or am I missing something here?
     
  15. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    You are in the right area but I think it is already a fair way offshore hence the rain downgrades for the Hunter and Sydney etc over the last few days.

    You can see a hook starting to form offshore on the below satellite images.

    The MSLP is showing a secondary trough/low closer to the coast which is what was triggering the stalled stormline earlier but we will have to wait for the rotation to build before the showers start pushing inland.



     
  16. Homer

    Homer One of Us

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    Cheers.
     
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  17. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Satellite this morning showing what the models were portraying. The broad lpa with the 2 lows within.








     
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  18. warrie

    warrie One of Us

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    Nice to see the NZ chart... W
     
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  19. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting system from a perspective of moisture feed opportunities and threats.
    Appears she will not have a good feed, but also in contrast resilient to fend off dry air threats.

     
  20. nfip

    nfip Cold n' Rusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    pulling some decent moisture in now
    unzud going to cop it deluxe
    still looking wet for the East Coast also
     
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  21. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Been interesting watching this feature. As was being indicated by GFS this cutoff low that toured se Australia may transition to a shallow warm core system. That's quite a feat considering climo. @best it may become a weak subtropical cyclone. Not something that happens very often.



    You can see on the sat its not frontal.