Predictions 13-17 October 2021

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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As discussed in the BBQ thread, there’s good alignment for more polar air to influence the SE by means of a broad cut off system.

It’s got all the hallmarks of an October dump; prefrontal, marginal temps etc.
Should equate to 15-30cm for the resort areas above 1600m, along with 20mm of prefrontal IMO.

GFS
1633724136143.png


EC
1633724191703.png
 

warrie

One of Us
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Jun 15, 2008
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Bom for PV, lets see how much it changes and what end result arises.

Wednesday 13 October​

Min -1 Max 9 Shower or two. Possible rainfall: 5 to 10 mm Chance of any rain: 70%

Alpine area​

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. The chance of a thunderstorm later in the day. Winds northerly 30 to 45 km/h.

Thursday 14 October​

Min 3 Max 5 Showers or snow.Possible rainfall: 20 to 30 mm Chance of any rain: 100%

Alpine area​

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers or snow. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northerly 35 to 50 km/h tending northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h during the morning.

Friday 15 October​

Min -2 Max 1 Snow showers.Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm Chance of any rain: 95%

Alpine area​

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h turning westerly later in the day.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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The word according to EC Ensembles suggests altealst 2.5 days of snowfall for the alps.

Thursday offers marginal conditions, snow above 1700m, late in the day. So the pessimistic person would write-off a lot of this prog below as rain, but still likely to see good accumulations above 1600m IMO.
Screen Shot 2021-10-10 at 8.39.28 am.png


Friday, with snow possible above 1100m IMO:
Screen Shot 2021-10-10 at 8.39.45 am.png


Sat:
Screen Shot 2021-10-10 at 8.39.58 am.png
 
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Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
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It will possibly snow 30 cms at the end of this week. Falls Creek will possibly become XC skiable on Sat. and Sunday .
The ski season ended last week so there is no fee to drive up and park at Windy Corner. This snow fall looks like being the biggest one in October since 2016.
These kinds of things are forbidden fruit for Melb. skiers and simply make the 7 day snap lockdown that goes for 4 months even worse !

NEXT 7 DAYS​

Mt Buller: 15-25cm

Mt Hotham: 11-25cm

Falls Creek: 10-12cm

Mt Baw Baw: 15-18cm

Perisher: 12-28cm

Thredbo: 15-25cm

Charlotte Pass: 20-27cm

Selwyn: 9cm

Lake Mountain: 15cm

Mt Stirling: 15-24cm

Ben Lomond: 17cm

Mt Mawson: 3cm

 
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SMSkier

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Interesting precursor to the main event that you don’t see all the often in this combination. Rain, a dusting of snow (obviously not uncommon) but then a nice hoar frost. Skied ok to boot :thumbs:. Plenty of base for the predicted snowfall to fall on.

86D08F80-F5AC-450B-9482-7371B7BBE1CA.jpeg

4E0881D2-B60D-4779-ACCD-FE981B8BEE59.jpeg

D5202A61-08CD-46B6-8D6A-03E3B35CABDF.jpeg

11E00F16-89C9-45AC-8F1C-F1C9EC0D4327.jpeg
 

SMSkier

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Must have been still overnight!
Rarely do you see hoar survive to that structure in the Aus alps.

For certain…. Spending so much time up there you don’t see a lot. Somewhere I’ve got a cracking example around Eyre - it looked like a massive snowfall. Not sure but I reckon @robbo mcs was there and may have a pic.

Temps did not get all that high for October today so snow may have held sway a little…. (Probably wandering off topic here).
 

robbo mcs

A Local
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For certain…. Spending so much time up there you don’t see a lot. Somewhere I’ve got a cracking example around Eyre - it looked like a massive snowfall. Not sure but I reckon @robbo mcs was there and may have a pic.

Temps did not get all that high for October today so snow may have held sway a little…. (Probably wandering off topic here).

Yep, hoar frosts are actually not that uncommon, if you spend a lot of days up there and go looking for it, just takes the right conditions. Often forms in certain places too. I've noticed it often forms on the metal railing of the perisher bridge. Hundreds of people walk over the bridge, and never notice the beauty right under their nose ;) You got me interested, so I went down the rabbit hole of looking at some of my pics from the last couple of years:)

Found pics of interesting sastrugi
Photo 10-9-19, 10 02 08 am.jpg


Pics of rime, lots of pics of rime. It is Perisher:rolleyes:
Photo 16-7-20, 11 07 47 am.jpg


I think this is actually the day you were thinking of. It was really interesting conditions, trees absolutely loaded with rime, but then a hoar frost formed on top of the rime. Unfortunately, you can't see it in these photos, but looked beautiful close up.

Photo 17-7-20, 9 05 03 am.jpg


Eventually I found some pictures of good hoar frost, guess where, the railing of the bridge was one of the spots:)
Photo 23-8-18, 7 02 49 am.jpg

Photo 23-8-18, 7 02 53 am.jpg
 

SMSkier

One of Us
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Oct 4, 2016
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Yep, hoar frosts are actually not that uncommon, if you spend a lot of days up there and go looking for it, just takes the right conditions. Often forms in certain places too. I've noticed it often forms on the metal railing of the perisher bridge. Hundreds of people walk over the bridge, and never notice the beauty right under their nose ;) You got me interested, so I went down the rabbit hole of looking at some of my pics from the last couple of years:)

Found pics of interesting sastrugi
Photo 10-9-19, 10 02 08 am.jpg


Pics of rime, lots of pics of rime. It is Perisher:rolleyes:
Photo 16-7-20, 11 07 47 am.jpg


I think this is actually the day you were thinking of. It was really interesting conditions, trees absolutely loaded with rime, but then a hoar frost formed on top of the rime. Unfortunately, you can't see it in these photos, but looked beautiful close up.

Photo 17-7-20, 9 05 03 am.jpg


Eventually I found some pictures of good hoar frost, guess where, the railing of the bridge was one of the spots:)
Photo 23-8-18, 7 02 49 am.jpg

Photo 23-8-18, 7 02 53 am.jpg

Nice pics. Found this - 3rd September 2018…. All hoar …..

03E9A65E-8D26-4337-880D-859B1872403C.jpeg
 

snowgum

A Local
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The air in most of these fronts and lows seem to warm tremendously between south of Nullarbor/Ceduna. The experts here probably expect this. They simply run of puff (cold) over the broader SE land area and drop rain at modest elevations, only to gain strength (colder too) as they head E/ SE over the Tasman.

I assume this is just the effect of a large, mild to hot continent upon a cool/cold maritime mass nearing the end of its life? More so if it’s a cut off system? Cheers for tips. ;)
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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I assume this is just the effect of a large, mild to hot continent upon a cool/cold maritime mass nearing the end of its life? ;)
Aus continent is anything but "Mild/Hot" at the moment.
Here's 5pm AEDST 2m Temp Anomaly today, across the sunburnt country:
1634015936815.png


It's October. Marginal snow systems are common currency this time of year.
 

snowgum

A Local
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Aus continent is anything but "Mild/Hot" at the moment.
Here's 5pm AEDST 2m Temp Anomaly today, across the sunburnt country:
1634015936815.png


It's October. Marginal snow systems are common currency this time of year.
Cheers POW, I agree, any snow in October, especially lower slopes is a bonus.
My comment was more generally through the winter. Bit jealous of SW WA, being the ‘good’ corner for cold, SW systems.
 
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snowgum

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Impressive wave, rotation on this beast! Current models (EC & GFS) don’t look quite as cold as before. More marginal for snow - less for the small hills than predicted 2-3 days ago? But still wet!
 
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