Predictions 13-17 October 2021

[POW Hungry]

As discussed in the BBQ thread, there’s good alignment for more polar air to influence the SE by means of a broad cut off system.

It’s got all the hallmarks of an October dump; prefrontal, marginal temps etc.
Should equate to 15-30cm for the resort areas above 1600m, along with 20mm of prefrontal IMO.

GFS

EC

 

[warrie]

Bom for PV, lets see how much it changes and what end result arises.

Wednesday 13 October​

Min -1 Max 9 Shower or two. Possible rainfall: 5 to 10 mm Chance of any rain: 70%

Alpine area​

Partly cloudy. High (70%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. The chance of a thunderstorm later in the day. Winds northerly 30 to 45 km/h.

Thursday 14 October​

Min 3 Max 5 Showers or snow.Possible rainfall: 20 to 30 mm Chance of any rain: 100%

Alpine area​

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of showers or snow. The chance of a thunderstorm. Winds northerly 35 to 50 km/h tending northwesterly 40 to 60 km/h during the morning.

Friday 15 October​

Min -2 Max 1 Snow showers.Possible rainfall: 6 to 15 mm Chance of any rain: 95%

Alpine area​

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of snow showers. Winds northwesterly 30 to 45 km/h turning westerly later in the day.

 

[POW Hungry]

The word according to EC Ensembles suggests altealst 2.5 days of snowfall for the alps.

Thursday offers marginal conditions, snow above 1700m, late in the day. So the pessimistic person would write-off a lot of this prog below as rain, but still likely to see good accumulations above 1600m IMO.

Friday, with snow possible above 1100m IMO:

Sat:

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

EC have made this prediction today ,10/10/21 for the upper section of Mt. Stirling.

Mt. Bogong could be worth a look after this system is over.

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

WZ see it like this:

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

EC. Falls Creek.
1430
10/10/21

 

[POW Hungry]

Sub-1000hPa on GFS this-arvie.

I am gonna go ahead and bump things up and say 20-45cm for the resorts Thursday to Sunday.
Looking great above 1600m IMO, certainly one of the better October dumps in recent memory (2016?).

 

[SMSkier]

October 2016 had several snowfalls and instances of Kosi Rd being open, closed open etc.

This pic I took on Eyre - 20th October that season. Happy to get a repeat thanks

 

[Boodwah]

Sub-1000hPa on GFS this-arvie.

I am gonna go ahead and bump things up and say 20-45cm for the resorts Thursday to Sunday.
Looking great above 1600m IMO, certainly one of the better October dumps in recent memory (2016?).

I am excited.

 

[Boodwah]

 

[Mister Tee on XC Skis]

It will possibly snow 30 cms at the end of this week. Falls Creek will possibly become XC skiable on Sat. and Sunday .
The ski season ended last week so there is no fee to drive up and park at Windy Corner. This snow fall looks like being the biggest one in October since 2016.
These kinds of things are forbidden fruit for Melb. skiers and simply make the 7 day snap lockdown that goes for 4 months even worse !

NEXT 7 DAYS​

Mt Buller: 15-25cm​

Mt Hotham: 11-25cm​

Falls Creek: 10-12cm​

Mt Baw Baw: 15-18cm​

Perisher: 12-28cm​

Thredbo: 15-25cm​

Charlotte Pass: 20-27cm​

Selwyn: 9cm​

Lake Mountain: 15cm​

Mt Stirling: 15-24cm​

Ben Lomond: 17cm​

Mt Mawson: 3cm​

 

[snowgum]

Better than an average October - if it happens? Will also help slow the melt for areas still with a cover.

 

[SMSkier]

Interesting precursor to the main event that you don’t see all the often in this combination. Rain, a dusting of snow (obviously not uncommon) but then a nice hoar frost. Skied ok to boot . Plenty of base for the predicted snowfall to fall on.

 

[Boodwah]

Interesting precursor to the main event that you don’t see all the often in this combination. Rain, a dusting of snow (obviously not uncommon) but then a nice hoar frost. Skied ok to boot . Plenty of base for the predicted snowfall to fall on.

Nelse?

 

[SMSkier]

Nelse?

Guthrie’s

 

[snowgum]

Interesting precursor to the main event that you don’t see all the often in this combination. Rain, a dusting of snow (obviously not uncommon) but then a nice hoar frost. Skied ok to boot . Plenty of base for the predicted snowfall to fall on.

Great pics btw - worthy of submission to the BOM for the next calendar! Or 2023?

 

[POW Hungry]

Must have been still overnight!
Rarely do you see hoar survive to that structure in the Aus alps.

 

[SMSkier]

Must have been still overnight!
Rarely do you see hoar survive to that structure in the Aus alps.

For certain…. Spending so much time up there you don’t see a lot. Somewhere I’ve got a cracking example around Eyre - it looked like a massive snowfall. Not sure but I reckon @robbo mcs was there and may have a pic.

Temps did not get all that high for October today so snow may have held sway a little…. (Probably wandering off topic here).

 

[robbo mcs]

For certain…. Spending so much time up there you don’t see a lot. Somewhere I’ve got a cracking example around Eyre - it looked like a massive snowfall. Not sure but I reckon @robbo mcs was there and may have a pic.

Temps did not get all that high for October today so snow may have held sway a little…. (Probably wandering off topic here).

Yep, hoar frosts are actually not that uncommon, if you spend a lot of days up there and go looking for it, just takes the right conditions. Often forms in certain places too. I've noticed it often forms on the metal railing of the perisher bridge. Hundreds of people walk over the bridge, and never notice the beauty right under their nose You got me interested, so I went down the rabbit hole of looking at some of my pics from the last couple of years

Found pics of interesting sastrugi

Pics of rime, lots of pics of rime. It is Perisher

I think this is actually the day you were thinking of. It was really interesting conditions, trees absolutely loaded with rime, but then a hoar frost formed on top of the rime. Unfortunately, you can't see it in these photos, but looked beautiful close up.

Eventually I found some pictures of good hoar frost, guess where, the railing of the bridge was one of the spots

 

[Kletterer]

Hoar is common on the frrost plains .

 

[SMSkier]

Yep, hoar frosts are actually not that uncommon, if you spend a lot of days up there and go looking for it, just takes the right conditions. Often forms in certain places too. I've noticed it often forms on the metal railing of the perisher bridge. Hundreds of people walk over the bridge, and never notice the beauty right under their nose You got me interested, so I went down the rabbit hole of looking at some of my pics from the last couple of years

Found pics of interesting sastrugi

Pics of rime, lots of pics of rime. It is Perisher

I think this is actually the day you were thinking of. It was really interesting conditions, trees absolutely loaded with rime, but then a hoar frost formed on top of the rime. Unfortunately, you can't see it in these photos, but looked beautiful close up.

Eventually I found some pictures of good hoar frost, guess where, the railing of the bridge was one of the spots

Nice pics. Found this - 3rd September 2018…. All hoar …..

 

[POW Hungry]

Stay on topic.

 

[Vandans]

BOM charts are up so any projections guys.

 

[Boodwah]

Looks wonky, some snow in there but more rain I reckon especially at the start.

 

[CarveMan]

Looks wonky, some snow in there but more rain I reckon especially at the start.

Yep hard to see where the cold air is coming from

 

[dawooduck]

Plant potatoes

 

[mr]

decent low pressures in there at least

 

[Boodwah]

Plant potatoes

At DP?
Alpine potatoes?

 

[POW Hungry]

Near stationary ‘front’.
Thursday dodge.
Good to go from around Thursday dusk (ish).
Rest of it looks ok above 1700m IMO. Main range special.

 

[Donza]

 

[snowgum]

The air in most of these fronts and lows seem to warm tremendously between south of Nullarbor/Ceduna. The experts here probably expect this. They simply run of puff (cold) over the broader SE land area and drop rain at modest elevations, only to gain strength (colder too) as they head E/ SE over the Tasman.

I assume this is just the effect of a large, mild to hot continent upon a cool/cold maritime mass nearing the end of its life? More so if it’s a cut off system? Cheers for tips.

 

[POW Hungry]

I assume this is just the effect of a large, mild to hot continent upon a cool/cold maritime mass nearing the end of its life?

Aus continent is anything but "Mild/Hot" at the moment.
Here's 5pm AEDST 2m Temp Anomaly today, across the sunburnt country:

It's October. Marginal snow systems are common currency this time of year.

 

[SMSkier]

Looks like an upgrade for PV since yesterday…..overnight camp deferred till Sunday afternoon.

 

[Gregah]

BOM charts are up so any projections guys.

Best prediction I can make from that is Adelaide getting blown off the map around midnight on Wednesday

 

[POW Hungry]

Best prediction I can make from that is Adelaide getting blown off the map around midnight on Wednesday

Streaky Bay/Ceduna bare the load for SA (30-40 knts).
Landfall knocks the wind out the sails pretty quickly. Pretty benign by the time it reaches ADL.

 

[snowgum]

Aus continent is anything but "Mild/Hot" at the moment.
Here's 5pm AEDST 2m Temp Anomaly today, across the sunburnt country:

It's October. Marginal snow systems are common currency this time of year.

Cheers POW, I agree, any snow in October, especially lower slopes is a bonus.
My comment was more generally through the winter. Bit jealous of SW WA, being the ‘good’ corner for cold, SW systems.

 

[POW Hungry]

Cheers POW, I agree, any snow in October, especially lower slopes is a bonus.
My comment was more generally through the winter. Bit jealous of SW WA, being the ‘good’ corner for cold, SW systems.

Yeah, SW WA has had a steady supply of particularly cold systems this season.

 

[POW Hungry]

Freeze Level on Friday 8am ~1650m, sits around that for much of the day.
Saturday looks a bit meh and marginal IMO.

 

[POW Hungry]

Saturday looking like the kiss of death with this system. Big moisture upgrade.
It will be reliant on local cooling effects.

 

[Boodwah]

 

[Boodwah]

Recall this happening a couple times in October before

 

[Boodwah]

2016

 

[snowgum]

Impressive wave, rotation on this beast! Current models (EC & GFS) don’t look quite as cold as before. More marginal for snow - less for the small hills than predicted 2-3 days ago? But still wet!

 

[Seafm]

2016

Cool video of its aftermath as well.