Getting bored of 30cm day systems. Looks like another substantial fall this time next week. Although only 20-40cm. A dusting.
EC ramping up its backing on next Wednesday. Model divergence is there so it's only really worth keeping an eye out at this stage. It's a ridge out on GFS and very open to it on EC. Maybe 5-10cm IMO. EC GFS
Well from someone who knows zero about weather patterns and forecasting, but an avid watcher of the guys here that do.....I just want to give a thank you to a stand out performer......... pow hungry......been outstanding this season not only with your predictions, but the great detail and explanations you add along with it. Spot on all season. Great job.
A few weeks back @The Fallen said that the conveyor belt was going to kick in. I reckon he was spot on.
Time for an AAO forecast check: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/new.aao_index_ensm.html Yeah, looks rather promising.
Again the sub-tropical blob that has been lurking over North West Cape area could be a big factor in this system. If timing is good, could spice up snowfall nicely, or if too early, could slop things up terribly. Last couple of weeks precip has just about dried up (literally) in southern Western Australia. Mid-winter break I'm hoping, another two months of regular fronts would be good.
Tonight's runs generally have it looking good for 10-15 cents in NSW and a bit less in Vic. Nice freshen up for the weekend.
Looking ridgey on EC once again on 00Z run. The pre-frontal looks bigger than the potential gain as it draws in NW air over the bight. Would prefer it pushed SE, TBH.
Perisher Yr.no: EC is going with 11.5mm of prefrontal rain. And 16.8cm of snow. Looks better for Buller IMO, looking at EC.
Depending upon the elevation, this looks neutral to me. Amount of prefrontal = amount of snow afterwards. For 1600m and below. The mix above that will advantage snow. Yes it's cold, but it's largely dried up by then. IMO
Cold is good. Some would say we have a semi-decent base, but wouldn't mind the surface conditions to staying good.
Jury is still out for it to ridge a bit more, but the cart is before the horse here. We look to have some rain, followed by some cold, dry air. 5-10 cents max after the rain on Wednesday I reckon. Baw Baw/Buller might chance a faction more IMO.
Well a cart without a horse is nigh on useless!! You can still ride a horse without the cart.... A little bit of moisture around (the horse), cold pool lurking (the cart), just need to get the two to meet at the right time.
Ya got me, I managed to put those round the right way... So I've now put them around the wrong way, as it looks on the models. The models are looking a little pre-frontal bias in the long range, but have been clearing a bit in the short range, so lets wait it out for the 4 day rule. On top of this there's still a little divergence amongst GFS & EC. GFS going more southerly with EC has it pushing through with a bit more West in it...
Yes, it's a funny little system. Personally I think / hope the sub-tropical moisture will dissipate & the sub-polar low will be a little more pushy than current forecast, although we are tending into that time of the season where the troughs & mid level lows start to fire up a little. Last few days have felt & smelt remarkably summery in WA, many deciduous trees have budded out up to two months earlier than last year, which was remarkably late. One of my guys nearly stepped on a Tiger snake, last week just on dark, which was still technically winter. But then local native tree haven't yet started to show their spring flushes, flowering etc. We have one local species (Agonis flexuosa - WA Peppermint) which flowers prolifically along the coast when rain in still to come in the season. Once they stop, and they do turn off overnight, I know summer is well and truly here, with the last rain of the season (usually a mid level low from the NW). Only the first few rogue individuals of this species have started to flower so far. A number of the properties I look after have some very expensive horses on the them. Need to shuffle a few of them around today, so might go and see razz them up to see if they feel like doing some hauling over the next two weeks....
A simple scan of the WA Synoptic chart over the last few weeks tells me the NW surface troughs are dominating the West Oz weather pattern - NE prevailing winds directed to Perth will promote that 'feeling of spring/summer'. Thus for me, it's a key indicator that the West is in a 'quick spring' to Summer set-up and the East can't be too far away. Hence my banging on about the broad scale change and a quick tapering of winter due - all of which the SE is yet to see @Donzah Just a hunch.
Yes, to some extent. I'm a reasonable way from Perth (not far enough in my books), the centre of the highs in general have still been sitting a little further north, not yet dropping into their blocking position, which is common in our transitional season, meaning the south of the state is not yet feeling that same influence. It's not uncommon for Perth to basking in cursed sunshine with the nor easter blowing while it's a light westerly with drizzle down on the Capes. But certainly I'm not liking the prevalence of these cells so early, although the vertical alignment of the two cells wedging this current system has certainly benefitted the SE snow wise.
"Technically" - ie, based on most of the rest of the world - it's still winter until Sept 21st. First day of spring should be the 22nd.
Always one of your most consistent arguing points, every flippin' season. Take it to the barbie thread yo. Even there I reckon no one will give shiz. We all get it.
EC 00z looking pretty settled on the below outcome for next Wed/Thurs. Short and sharp as clipper does. 850mb Vort says to me we'll have some pre-frontal to get through.
Get that pre-frontal filth away from the south east. Plenty going at higher latitudes, but the oblong sausage of this present cell is not helping our cause, doing a good job of deflecting systems south. Look at that nuisance little trough of the NW Cape, and further afield, that stinking monster straddling the entire breadth of the South Atlantic. The pressure gradient of the 1045 cell between NZ & South America is quite impressive though.
I predict a bit of clear stuff could be a good thing (as long as you're not skiing in it) it'll start us towards a huge thick frozen solid ice cube of a snowpack, that will go the distance against warm spring temps.
Agree. OT but Buller is doing some grooming right now that is going to really set up some runs for Spring.
Looking stronger on EC and GFS in this morning's runs plus a cold burst on the Friday as well. Just in time for me for the weekend! 2017 - #justkeepsdelivering
